Silver Market 260630

Jun 30 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $66.01
SGE Spot $65.70 ($6.80 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $65.81
IBJA Spot $64.42 (~$5.48 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $58.94
COMEX Jul26 Futures $58.85 ($0.04 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened and closed just above $58, dropped below $57 over night and popped back up above $59 before settling just under $59 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:44 : $58.94

Jul26 = -0.04 vs -$0.04 Previously (spot @ 06:24 : $58.89)
Aug26 = +$0.17 vs +$0.21 (spot @ 06:38 : $58.92)
Sep26 = +$0.46 vs +$0.40

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread holds steady. The discount to LBMA spot is likely not sufficient to realize an arbitrage profit for shipping silver to London (to sell at the LBMA).

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.56 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.16)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.68 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $65.81)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $73.57
IBJA PM spot : $74.09 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.42)

China ​

SGE $65.70(no VAT)
SFE $66.01

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $6.80 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.31

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Jun 30 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.4M
COMEX1.2M
SFE57K
SGE1.2M

COMEX withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates (5 DMA net deposit rate shrunk massively)
SFE 5 DMA run rate 135d (from 81)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 26)

COMEX 6-26​

25K ozt (0.8t) in StoneX [R]

1.2M ozt (36.8t) from JPM (581K), Loomis (601K)

4.6M ozt (142.1t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 322.2M ozt (91.7M [R], 230.5M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 62K/day DEPOSIT (from 416K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,594
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 5,321,508.67

Jun withdrawals are currently ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 1.2M ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate massively as it replaces a 610K ozt net deposit in the 5 DMA window.

Asahi moves a huge 4.6M ozt from [E]ligible to [R]egistered presumably in anticipation of being delivered against July contracts.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises from 0.47% to 0.59%

Interactive Brokers reports heavy activity yesterday and the borrowing fee has risen to the highest it's been in months.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.6M shares
JPM:1.4M ozt (45t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904697 (=from 0.904697)

Another large drawdown in SLV vault stock yesterday. London vault stock now at ~400M ozt. Will it go much lower?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

57K ozt (1.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,470,220 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 197K/day (from 330K)

Run rate = 26.5M / 197K = ~135 (working) days (~7 months) (from 81)

A huge 576K net outflow replaces a 255K net inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate doubles (as I had expected).

SGE Run Rate​

1.2M ozt (36.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 32,256,040 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.1M/week DEPOSIT (from 1.4M/week DEPOSIT)

Run rate =

Following declining weekly inflows that culminated in a weekly ouflow the week previous, last week reports a moderate 1.2M ozt net inflow that replaces a 2.9M ozt net inflow in the 5 WMA window and the deposit rate still shrinks a bit.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260628.9068/