Silver Market 260703

[pmbug]

Jul 3 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $70.04 ($7.42 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
SFE Futures $69.99
MCX Futures $68.26
IBJA Spot $66.45 (~$4 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $62.44
COMEX Jul26 Futures $62.66 ($0.03 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just below $60, popped, dropped and closed just under $61. It popped again over night and sits just above $62 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:48 : $62.44

Jul26 = -$0.03 vs +$0.01 Previously (spot @ 05:12 : $62.69)
Aug26 = +$0.25 vs +$0.24 (spot @ 06:44 : $62.51)
Sep26 = +$0.52 vs +$0.48

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread stays close to zero, but flips back to slightly negative.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $81.68 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $68.96)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $78.50 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $68.26)
MCX Sep26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.63
IBJA PM spot : $76.42 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $66.45)

China ​

SGE $70.04(no VAT)
SFE $69.99

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $7.42 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.05


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Jul 3 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV768K
COMEX625K
SFE219K

COMEX withdrawals start the month at 0% of Jul26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA [R] run rate ~3,829d (from 3,505d)
COMEX 5 DMA [E] run rate ~2,855d (from 2,598d)
SFE 5 DMA run rate 505d (from 199)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 26)

COMEX 7-1​

625K ozt (19.4t) in Loomis (601K), MT&B (24K)

ozt

134K ozt (4.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 323.2M ozt (92.9M [R], 230.3M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 47K/day (from 51K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate = 92.9M / 24K = ~3,829 (working) days (~192 months) (from 3,505d)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (230.3M - 79.2M) / 47K = ~3,240 (working) days (~162 months) (from 2,946d)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (230.3M / 2) / 47K = ~2,469 (working) days (~124 months) (from 2,249d)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 2,855 (working) days (~143 months) (from 2,598d)

COMEX Jul26​

Jul26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,186
Jul26 contract equivalent ozt = 25,930,000
Actual withdrawals in Jul ozt = 0

Jul withdrawals start the month at 0% of Jul26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 625K ozt net deposit replaces a 603K ozt net deposit in the 5 DMA net withdrawal window and the rate shrinks slightly.

That's three days in a row without any withdrawals (matching the pattern that started the month of June). Surely that will change soon?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee drops from 0.46% to 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports light activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:850K shares
JPM:768K ozt (23.9t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904696 (from 0.904697)

London vault stock rebounds to 401.4M ozt. ~400M still appears to be the lower bound resistance level for SLV's London vault stock.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

219K ozt (6.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,836,680 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 53K/day (from 134K)

Run rate = 26.8M / 53K = ~505 (working) days (~25 months) (from 199)

A 219K net inflow replaces a 183K net outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks by more than half. Is China getting silver from London again?

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260702.9080/