Silver on Wallstreetbets

rblong2us

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So 'not accounted for' means its available i.e. for sale ?

I suppose at the right price my BV silver would be for sale though .......

For the big boyz $ 4.4 billion is not a big number but for WallStreetSilver it will be a test

Perhaps Elon could step in and buy it all (-;
 

Chigg

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I was tempted to jump in this weekend but fought it off. A $4-$5 premium is tough to swallow. Hoping I can catch a dip in $25 range before summer.
 

rblong2us

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saw this comment from Michael Ballinger


I have always treated the Gold Silver ratio as the best tool for judging the longer-term health of the precious metals markets. If the GSR trends up over an extended period, it is usually an omen of trouble for both gold and silver. Since the lunacy of the Covid Crash took gold and silver to Generational Buying Opportunities in miners and metals, once silver found its footing in late April 2020, the GSR has been in a powerfully bullish descent that continues to scream “New Highs” as the year unfolds.
One of the classic trademarks of a gold market gathering steam is a silver market outperforming gold, and that it has been doing without fail
Yeah we saw premiums in physical back in the summer when things got tight but once things got moved around it all settled down again. Maybe watching premiums and GSR as per the above comment is the way ?
 

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rblong2us

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This was reposted on ZH after being taken down by Reddit -


considering how disparaging some of the long term gold and silver pundits are about the new wave of day traders, some of these new kids seem to be pretty well up to speed with things .........
 

pmbug

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The author of that piece makes some assumptions/predictions that might be a bit "koolaidish", but hopefully the thesis pans out.

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February 2021 has had 9.95 million ounces delivered through 2-18, and there are still 1.83 million ounces in open interest. Anyone still sitting in a contract this late in the month wants delivery, so we can safely assume Feb. deliveries will end above 11 million, and closer to 12 million. ...
AFAIK, open interest continues to decline every day until the last day before they are locked in. Harvey et al highlight large open interest positions all the time and they always shrink to nothingburgers by the last day.

... March is gearing up to potentially be an earth-shattering month for delivery requests that could send silver soaring. March in the previous 3 years has averaged 26.79 million ounces delivered. If this year's month of March experienced the same 422% increase in deliveries that occurred in February, that would represent ~140 million ounces delivered. Enough to completely drain the COMEX registered stocks. If typical contract roll-forward behavior persists, we are actually on track to hit around that number. The chart below shows how March is on track to finish the month with between 30-40k contracts demanding delivery (each contract represents 5,000 oz). The chart is courtesy of u/Ditch_the_DeepState who does an awesome job with these.
...
u/Ditch_the_DeepState posted this a short while ago:
March COMEX contract open interest declines to 17,000 contracts ...
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/ls7pv1
I did enjoy this bit:
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There is another asset that has been in the news recently that is over 55k in price (WSB bans mentioning it, I'm not trying to pump it, just use it for an example). There are only ~21 million of these items that will ever be mined, and they are valued for their scarcity and deflationary tendency. For every ten of these things which shall not be named there is only one 1000oz commercial silver bar, and each bar costs roughly half of what 1 of the things that shall not be named costs.
...
I didn't check his numbers/math, but it's an interesting comparison.

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Silver is more common than gold but spread rather thin in the earth's crust so it isn't mined directly in large quantities. It's more typically a byproduct of mining for other raw materials. The lack of dedicated silver mines means that silver today is mined at only an 8-1 ratio to gold despite naturally occurring at roughly 18.75-1 ratio. Silver is currently trading at a 66-1 ratio to gold, and gold hasn't even been rising lately. In the 2010-2011 run, we got down to a 30-1 ratio, and if people begin to worry about inflation and consider silver a monetary hedge, there's nothing stopping silver from getting to its natural ratio of 18.75-1 or even lower considering the industrial demand combined with the lower 8-1 production ratio.

These lower ratios combined with higher gold prices in the future mean that silver can realistically get above $50 in short order, possibly even above $100 and if you think the monetary system is really headed downhill, even up to the outrageous forecasts of $500+ from the likes of Patrick Karim on Twitter. Note that Patrick posts various charts all the time and his most recent forecast are $182 silver by 2023. Love your charts Patrick (give this man a follow).
...
To the moon!

 

rblong2us

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Yes I saw Turds post before I saw that Wall Street Bets post.
What we may be seeing is an attempt by various interests to aquire physical in the event there is a shortage ( kinda self fulfilling prophecy )
And regardless of who it is, as long as the demand for delivery continues to rise at the COMEX, then we can realistically expect price to be effected.
 

pmbug

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...
Surprisingly, the LBMA report acknowledges that strong inflows into silver-backed ETFs in late January and early February, if they had persisted, could have led to the LBMA London vaults running out of acceptable (good delivery) silver bars for the ETFs. ...

Looks like the WSB crowd wasn't able to sustain the buying long enough, but they got pretty close.
 

rblong2us

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I see that theres a new attempt to 'break the morgue'


It will be interesting to see if it works any better than last time and might even allow me a break even moment )-:
 

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I was browsing the WSS subreddit and see that some of them are buying billboard ads along some roadways. Seems like there is still a bit of enthusiasm in the room.
 
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