Silver Report 260506

[pmbug]

May 6 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $85.97
SGE Spot $85.92 (~$10 premium to LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $78.73
IBJA PM Spot $77.94 (~$0.50 premium to LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $77.48
COMEX May26 Futures $77.30 (EFP spread -$0.03)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$73.50 and closed just under $73. It climbed to ~$75.50 as China woke up from holiday, tread water for a bit and then resumed climbing to ~$77.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:18 : $77.48

May26 = -$0.03 vs -$0.02 Previously (spot @ 06:00 : $77.33)
Jun26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.15 (spot @ 07:16 : $77.60)
Jul26 = +$0.61 vs +$0.47

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 & Jul26 EFP spreads shift more to the positive side. May26 EFP spread holds steady near zero - I think not sufficient incentive for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.52 (less 10% taxes = $79.67)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $84.83 (less 7.2% taxes = $78.73)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $83.88
IBJA PM spot : $82.05 (less 5% duty = $77.94)

China ​

SGE $85.92(no VAT)
SFE $85.97

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.05



~~~

May 6 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV724K
COMEX466K
SFE75K

COMEX withdrawals are ~10% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate1,940d
COMEX [E] run rate1,696d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

COMEX 5-4​

1.4M ozt (42.9t) in Loomis

1.8M ozt (57.4t) from CNT (600K), JPM (640K), Loomis (601K)

714K ozt (22.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in StoneX

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 314.8M ozt (79.6M [R], 235.2M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 79K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 79.6M / 41K = ~1,940 (working) days(~97 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (235.2M - 85.2M) / 79K = ~1,901 (working) days (~97 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (235.2M / 2) / 79K = ~1,490 (working) days (~74.5 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 1,695.5 (working) days (~84.8 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,929
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 24,645,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 2,461,946.19

May withdrawals are currently ~10% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's net withdrawal masks a huge deposit. This is the second (working) day in row for ~1M ozt deposits. Are refineries delivering to the COMEX again?

Monday's 466K ozt net withdrawal returned the 5 DMA withdrawal rate into a net withdrawal rate. I expect withdrawals to pick up and the run rate estimates to drop quickly.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.28% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:800K shares
JPM:724K ozt

SLV recoups Friday's 724K drain. London vault stock recovers to 399169723.2 ozt. It is holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

75K ozt (2.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 24,661,940 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 499K/day deposit!

Run rate =

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260505.8895/