Silver Report 260507

[pmbug]

May 7 AM Silver Market​

SGE Spot $89.43 (~$12 premium to LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $89.16 ($0.27 discount to SGE)
MCX Futures $80.74
COMEX May26 Futures $80.44 (EFP spread +$0.09)
LBMA Spot $80.42
IBJA PM Spot $79.94 (~$0.50 discount to LBMA Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

What a pretty "nothing goes straight up" chart. Yesterday silver opened ~$76 and closed just over $77 before drifting up to $78 at night and then popping up to $80.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:48 : $80.42

May26 = +$0.09 vs -$0.03 Previously (spot @ 06:02 : $80.35)
Jun26 = +$0.27 vs +$0.22 (spot @ 06:46 : $80.50)
Jul26 = +$0.56 vs +$0.61

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 & Jul26 EFP spreads more or less hold steady. May26 EFP spread shifts positive. This negates any possibility for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London at a profit.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.98 (less 10% taxes = $81.88)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.01 (less 7.2% taxes = $80.74)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.28
IBJA PM spot : $84.15 (less 5% duty = $79.94)

China ​

SGE $89.43(no VAT)
SFE $89.16

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$12
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.27



~~~

May 7 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV207K
COMEX2M
SFE670K
SGE2.7M

COMEX withdrawals are ~18% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate308d
COMEX [E] run rate267d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 1)

COMEX 5-5​

ozt

2M ozt (63.3t) from CNT (600K), Delaware (18K), JPM (639K), StoneX (777K)

52K ozt (1.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in CNT

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 312.8M ozt (79.5M [R], 233.2M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 497K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 79.5M / 259K = ~308 (working) days(~15.4 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (233.2M - 85.2M) / 497K = ~298 (working) days (~15 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (233.2M / 2) / 497K = ~235 (working) days (~12 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 267 (working) days (~13.4 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,998
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 24,990,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 4,496,678.31

May withdrawals are currently ~18% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's activity reports zero deposits. The COMEX is apparently back to sporadic deposits then.

Tuesday's 2M ozt net withdrawal blew out the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rates have fallen dramatically as expected. The 5 DMA withdrawal rate is heavily weighted by Tuesday's withdrawal. If the COMEX continues with heavy (1-2M net) withdrawals over the next few days, the 5 DMA withdrawal rate will continue to climb and the run rate estimates will continue to shrink.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.41% to 0.36%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM:207K ozt (6.4t)

How does vault stock drop without a corresponding drop in shares?

London vault stock is still holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

1,590,750 units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3400

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

PSLV did it again - adding units (like they did on Apr 17) without corresponding vault stock.

SFE Run Rate​

670K ozt (20.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 25,331,640 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 443K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

2.7M ozt (84.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 19,391,720 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 2M/week DEPOSIT

Run rate =

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260506.8896/

 

[Voodoo]

Hey, Pm. Not sure that I like the individual threads for these. Makes it harder to look back to the previous day and they will get lost quickly. But as always its very good information and thanks for posting.

 

[Viking]

I think he gets excited to post and makes new ones.

 

[pmbug]

... Makes it harder to look back to the previous day and they will get lost quickly. ...

I'm putting the date in the thread title in YYMMDD format. You can use the forum search function to find any given day easily (something that was not easy to do with the one long thread). These threads are also in a dedicated forum room ("node"), so it is also easy to browse:

PMBug's Silver Market Reports

Morning reports covering the global silver market including prices, futures, ETFs and vault stock flows.

www.pmbug.com

I'm not a fan of "super threads" that run hundreds of pages long. IMO, they are intimidating for new readers to jump in and they discourage conversation.

 

[pmbug]

I think he gets excited to post and makes new ones.

 

[pmbug]

@Voodoo - Would it be helpful if I added a link to the previous report?

Edit: Previous report links added to the end of the posts