Silver Report 260508

[pmbug]

May 8 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $90.75
SGE Spot $89.78 (~$9 premium to LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $80.82
COMEX May26 Futures $80.51 (EFP spread +$0.06)
LBMA Spot $80.76
IBJA PM Spot $79.95 (~$0.80 discount to LBMA Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$81, rose to $82 and fell to $79 before closing just above $78. The rollercoaster continued overnight but has risen back to ~$80.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:44 : $80.76

May26 = +$0.06 vs +$0.09 Previously (spot @ 05:24 : $80.45)
Jun26 = +$0.24 vs +$0.27 (spot @ 06:32 : $80.59)
Jul26 = +$0.62 vs +$0.56

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads more or less hold steady. May26 EFP spread remains positive. This negates any possibility for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London at a profit.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $91.13 (less 10% taxes = $82.02)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.09 (less 7.2% taxes = $80.82)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.44
IBJA PM spot : $84.15 (less 5% duty = $79.95)

China ​

SGE $89.78(no VAT)
SFE $90.75

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE = $0.97



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May 8 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV679K
COMEX
SFE788K

COMEX withdrawals remain ~18% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate409d
COMEX [E] run rate352d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 1)

COMEX 5-6​

ozt

ozt

297K ozt (9.2t) moved from [E] to [R] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 312.8M ozt (79.8M [R], 232.9M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 375K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 79.8M / 195K = ~409 (working) days(~20.5 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (232.9M - 85.2M) / 375K = ~394 (working) days (~19.7 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (232.9M / 2) / 375K = ~310 (working) days (~15.5 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 352 (working) days (~17.6 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,007
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 25,035,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 4,496,678.31

May withdrawals remain ~18% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's activity reports zero deposits for the second day in a row. It's hard to believe there was zero movement in or out of all the vaults.

Wednesday's 0 ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rates grew accordingly. The 5 DMA withdrawal rate is still heavily weighted by Tuesday's withdrawal. If the COMEX continues with heavy (1-2M net) withdrawals over the next few days, the 5 DMA withdrawal rate will climb and the run rate estimates will shrink.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.36% to 0.38%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:750K shares
JPM:679K ozt (21.1t)

After yesterday's headscratching vault stock drain sans corresponding dip in shares, we're back to seemingly normal corresponding movements.

London vault stock (399.6M ozt) is still holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

56,594 units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.33998

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

For the second day in a row and third since Apr 17, PSLV adds units without corresponding vault stock and the ozt/units ratio is now under 0.34. Where's the ozt?

SFE Run Rate​

788K ozt (24.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,119,680 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 497K/day deposit!

Run rate =

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260507.8903/