May 13 AM Silver Market
LBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened ~$84, popped and closed above $86. It tread water overnight and is just under ~$87 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:20 : $86.96
May26 = +$0.27
Jun26 = +$0.41 vs +$0.31 (spot @ 07:18 : $86.92)
Jul26 = +$0.67 vs +$0.76
EFP Commentary
For the second day in a row, all EFP spreads remain firmly positive. This negates any possibility for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London at a profit. Will traders drain LBMA silver to send to the COMEX?
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $104.27 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $85.03)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $97.49 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $81.69)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $96.93
IBJA PM spot : $93.55 (less 10% BCD duty = $84.20)
India raised their import duties today and local prices are rising.
China
SGE $97.41
SFE $97.56
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE premium to SGE = $0.15
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May 13 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE
SGE
COMEX withdrawals remain ~24% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate
COMEX [E] run rate
SFE run rate
SGE run rate
COMEX 5-11
85K ozt (2.6t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks (74K), Delaware (5K), MT&B (6K)
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 313.2M ozt (80M [R], 233.2M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 318K/day
@ 52% [R], run rate = 80M / 165K = ~484 (working) days
@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (233.3M - 85.2M) / 318K = ~466 (working) days
@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (233.3M / 2) / 318K = ~367 (working) days
@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 417 (working) days
COMEX May26
May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,332
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 26,660,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 6,384,238.93
May withdrawals remain ~24% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Monday's 1.1M ozt net deposit cut the 5 DMA withdrawal rate in half and the run rates doubled accordingly. It looks like the firmly positive May26 EFP spread has indeed impacted withdrawals. At the same time, it looks like deposits are starting to pick up again.
COMEX has maintained [R] vault stock around the 79-80M ozt range since April 20. Whatever the USA silver refiners are doing with building a shadow inventory, it looks like they are trying to maintain a minimum threshold of silver in the COMEX system.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee remains 0.41%
Interactive Brokers reports zero borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
JPM:
The SLV vault stock see saw broke it's pattern with a second consecutive inflow.
London vault stock (400.9M ozt) is still holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.
We're approaching the middle of May. SLV is about due for the curious mid-month swap.
PSLV
ozt/units ratio 0.33940
PSLV plays a bit of catch up with vault stock inflow to match recent units creation. They would need to add ~2.5M ozt more to bring the ozt/units ratio back to .3434 (and ~386K ozt to bring the ratio back to just .34).
SFE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,912,220 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 650K/day deposit!
Run rate =
SGE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 20,495,140 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.6M/week DEPOSIT
Run rate =
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260512.8924/