May 12 AM Silver Market
SFE Futures $95.04 SGE Spot $94.91 (~$10 premium to 
LBMA Spot
)
COMEX May26 Futures $84.48 (EFP spread +$0.28
)
MCX Futures $83.54 LBMA Spot $83.53 IBJA PM Spot $81.81 (~$1.70 discount to LBMA Spot)LBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened ~$81, popped and closed ~$86. It chpped up slightly overnight fell back to ~$83 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:16 : $83.53
May26 = +$0.28
vs +$0.45 Previously (spot @ 06:04 : $84.20)Jun26 = +$0.31 vs +$0.29 (spot @ 07:14 : $83.52)
Jul26 = +$0.76 vs +$0.60
EFP Commentary
EFP spreads remain firmly positive. This negates any possibility for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London at a profit. Will traders drain LBMA silver to send to the COMEX?
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $94.78 (less 10% taxes = $85.30)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $90.02 (less 7.2% taxes = $83.54)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.37
IBJA PM spot : $86.12 (less 5% duty = $81.81)
Media reports that Indian silver imports are bottlenecked for the last 5 weeks. I'm not seeing Indian prices reflect any supply constraints.
China
SGE $94.91
(no VAT)SFE $95.04
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13
~~~
May 12 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
100KSLV
1.2MCOMEX
194KSFE
402KCOMEX withdrawals are now ~24% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate
244dCOMEX [E] run rate
210dCOMEX 5-8
600K ozt (18.6t) in Loomis794K ozt (24.7t) from CNT (491K), Loomis (303K)45K ozt (1.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (20K), MT&B (25K)
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 312.1M ozt (79.9M [R], 232.2M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 627K/day
@ 52% [R], run rate = 79.9M / 326K = ~244 (working) days
(~12.2 months)@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (232.2M - 85.2M) / 627K = ~234 (working) days
(~11.7 months)@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (232.2M / 2) / 627K = ~185 (working) days
(~9.3 months)@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 210 (working) days
(~10.5 months)COMEX May26
May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,273
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 26,365,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 6,332,504.71
May withdrawals are now ~24% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Friday's 194K ozt net withdrawal grew the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rates shrunk accordingly. May26 EFP spread has been firmly positive for the last two days. Will this slow down withdrawals?
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rose from 0.33% to 0.41%
Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
1.3M sharesJPM:
1.2M ozt (36.6t)The SLV vault stock see saw continues. The flow looks like this:
Mon:
activityTue:
724KWed:
207KThu:
679KFri:
996KMon:
1.2MLondon vault stock (399.8M ozt) is still holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.
We're approaching the middle of May. SLV is about due for the curious mid-month swap.
PSLV
3,151,405 units100K ozt (3.1t)ozt/units ratio 0.33846
PSLV awakens from a ~3 month slumber and adds appreciable vault stock. Unfortunately, they added even more units, so the ozt/units ratio actually went down. They need to add more vault stock to get the ratio back up.
SFE Run Rate
402K ozt (12.5t)Remaining Vault Stock = 26,779,480.00 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 438K/day deposit!
Run rate =
This is the first daily net drain since April 1st.
~~~
Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260509.8913/