Silver Report 260519

[pmbug]

May 19 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $85.57 ($0.76 SGE Spot)
SGE Spot $84.81 (~$8.50 LBMA Spot)
IBJA PM Spot $77.88 (~$2 LBMA Spot)
COMEX May26 Futures $76.57 (~11pm May 18 quote) (EFP spread +$0.27)
LBMA Spot $75.78
MCX Futures $74.85 (~$3 IBJA PM Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened at ~$76.50, spiked, fell, recovered and closed ~$77.50. It rose up to almost $79 at night and fell back and has drifted lower to ~$75.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:46 : $75.78

May26 = +$0.27 vs +$0.33 Previously (spot @ 22:40 May 18 : $76.30)
Jun26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.08 (spot @ 06:26 : $75.91)
Jul26 = +$0.12 vs +$0.34

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads remain positive this morning. May26 contract quote is from last night - perhaps thinly traded as the new week begins.

Jul26 EFP spread fell a bit is barely greater than the Jun26 spread while the May26 contract's EFP spread is more positive than both June and July. Curious!

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $95.23 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $77.66)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $89.31 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $74.85)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.26
IBJA PM spot : $86.54 (less 10% BCD duty = $77.88)

India raised their import duties recently and then imposed import restrictions (halting imports for investment, industrial use only) a day later. I think their markets are still adjusting (or finding their new equilibrium). We are starting to see IBJA spot rise now.

China ​

SGE $84.81(no VAT)
SFE $85.57

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8.50
SFE premium to SGE = +$0.76

SFE premium to SGE blew out last night. It had been oscillating between slight premium and slight discount. Today it is firmly premium as SFE records the first net outflow of silver vault stock in a week.



~~~

May 19 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV1K
SLV1.1M
COMEX48K
SFE40K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~25% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate
COMEX [E] run rate
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 15)

COMEX 5-15​

90K ozt (2.8t) in Brinks

42K ozt (1.3t) in Delaware (24K), HSBC (3K), MT&B (15K)

80K ozt (2.5t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.1M ozt (80.9M [R], 234.2M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 606K/day DEPOSIT

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,628
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 28,140,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 7,120,588.89

May withdrawals are now ~25% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 48K ozt net deposit grows the 5 DMA deposit rate slightly. Run rates remain indeterminate with a net deposit rate.

As expected, withdrawals continue to remain muted while the May26 contract was running a positive EFP spread.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.41% to 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.2M shares
JPM:1.1M ozt (33.8t)

SLV posts the first net drain in a week.

PSLV​

units
1K ozt (0.03t)
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

Did PSLV really just add one single LGD bar to the vault?

SFE Run Rate​

40K ozt (1.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,375,140 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 919K/day deposit!

Run rate =

This tiny withdrawal actually increased the 5 DMA deposit rate as a larger withdrawal rolls out of the window.

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260518.8938/

 

[AGgregator]

I mis-read my preliminary output. Standard Chartered was ~8k contracts stopped in '25, but they, it would seem, have enough recent Stops to be able to handle this month's Issues, presuming they keep a few prior months Stops in the vaults.
The orange columns are for [Cust-Stops]-[Cust-Issues]; [House-Stops]-[House-Issues]; [House]-[Cust], since I thought the house always wins, but that's not always the case, it turns out as there are a few banks losing like retailers...