#silversqueeze

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UPDATE: CME silver COT report (data as of July 8) shows swap dealers (bullion banks) trimmed their short position from 82,400 short contracts to 80,282. That's down ~2.5% from last week.

The total of all silver short contracts on the COMEX is now 148,793 which is down from 149,858 on the last week's report. This represents the sale of 743,965,000 troy ounces (~23,140 metric tons) of silver (in COMEX good delivery format bars).

The total global free float of vaulted silver in the COMEX + LBMA + SGE/SFE was ~630.925 million troy ounces at the start of July.

The total COMEX short position represents the sale of 113,040,000 troy ounces (~3,516 metric tonnes) more silver than the total free float of all silver stock available in global trading exchange vaults. And while not all COMEX traders stand for delivery on their contracts, we are seeing a huge increase in the number of contracts standing for delivery in 2025 versus 2024.

As of July 11, COMEX July silver futures now up to 8,229 contracts standing for delivery (equivalent to 41,145,000 troy ounces or ~1280 metric tons) - up 777 contracts or 10.4% from July 9!.

~~~

Yesterday, SLV reported a massive loss of 4,224,893.10 troy ounces from their London vaulted silver stock. They also reported a large loss of 2,452,987.20 troy ounces for Thursday. That's 6,677,880.30 troy ounces (~208 metric tonnes) or ~1.77% of Wednesday's total stock in two days which is a huge draw down compared to the normal daily activity over the last month or so since I've been watching.

Given the rise in EFP spreads / lending rates*, it really looks like physical silver in London Good Delivery format (1,000 troy ounce bars) is getting tight again and someone is raiding SLV to get some.

* there are other signs of physical scarcity as well:
- PSLV premium to NAV tightening
- Perth Mint in Australia not selling 1,000 toz bars to the public for months now
 
Seems like Mexican silver is already a lost cause. China buys direct from the miners. Trucks of ore get hijacked/stolen. The government has frozen mining permits to hamper the industry. The government might nationalize the mines. Not sure how much potential tariffs are going to move the needle, but they wouldn't help, that's for sure.
 
Silver cannot stabilize the market by increasing production like crude because it has no surplus production capacity. In this way, it will trigger a supply crisis, leading to further surge and attracting more speculater are entering the market. Then Supply further deteriorates.
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I agree with this. It may have a surplus production capability but not one fast enough to really affect prices in anywhere near the short term. There is a lot of silver in the earth. There are a lot of countrys and outfits mining silver. However there is a huge market for silver, most especially in Industrial. Silver is the critical metal for the next generation of technology.

I wonder is this why economic blocks and nations put taxes on silver and not gold ? Most especially Russia and Poland the Levy large Vats on silver and both are major producers, perhaps in order to discourage private ownership ? Even some American states tax private silver sales.

I'm no expert but Ive learned a lot since i started stacking because thats the way I am. Always curious. Always questioning. This price escalation seemed a pretty easy prediction for by me months ago and I know squat about economics and little more about PM's. It was simply an acknowledgement of supply and demand.

We are what ? In the 5'th year of demand outstripping production ? With the importance of silver in modern technology only increasing and the demand for the metal, as always, high for its beauty in various forms ? China and India have huge populations and especially in China silver has a historic importance in their culture. Add to all this the difficulty in obtaining, enlarging, and implementing new silver sources. That, and the every present spectre of supply problems from 3'rd world sources ? And anybody should have seen this silver rocket from months and even years ago. I may have been wrong all those times I said silver has legs, and still does, but to me it was pretty obvious.

At a G/S % of 100 I tried buying with both hands. I still think its a very good wealth retention investment at 87. Today I rose only to see it at over $39 so maybe its a good time to buy right this minute if you can find anywhere close to spot.
 
I think it's Highly likely that you are correct. They levy taxes to discourage us plebs from joining in on their games. Worse yet, making it more expensive to build all their dream bombs and shit.
 
Big topping tail today. Should cool things off a bit now. Wait and see if 36.50 holds.
 
More telling is the metal stubbornly holding on to $38+. Heck its only been a few weeks ago you could buy $35 silver. I know because I did but right now I'm thinking $38+ silver is the new reality.
 
SilverStacker said:
More telling is the metal stubbornly holding on to $38+. Heck its only been a few weeks ago you could buy $35 silver. I know because I did but right now I'm thinking $38+ silver is the new reality.
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If 36.50 doesn't hold you'll be able to buy more at 35 soon.
 
Rumors of firing JPow. Although that had been discussed for some time so I don't know why that would be new news. Silver made a nice double bottom look. On some nice heavy volume on those green bars after the low.

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So apparently there are no available shares of SLV available to borrow/short as of yesterday. SLV also saw a ~4M toz inventory drawdown today. It looks like physical silver (at least, in LGD bars) is getting very tight.
 
The number of shares available to short is very misleading. They just magically refill whenever they want. Often the number available goes way down before a hit to price. The increases come as the shares available climbs again.
 
They'll just make a swap or find another ETF to shuffle the problem. Or just fail and then they have 33 days or multiples of 33 days to kick the can.
 
How the flip flipty Frell did they get the moronic managed money to go short? Are the swap dealers also in charge and just flip the bags?
 
Certainly looks like they are trying to pull off the Ultimate Bear Trap. Get managed money to go short while they cover as much as possible and go long even. Freaking bastards. Helps to be able to set the price.
 
That was data from a year and a half ago. Currently, swap dealers ~76k and managed money ~16k (short).
 
Umm well ok.. that makes more sense. I had no idea how and why managed money would have flipped so fast. :unsure:

I still think they just tried to shake some out and make be getting a BIG swing here soon. Look at GDX right now. Keep in mind that Gold is down $30 and silver was $1 in the red not long ago. GDX is up 1%.... Say what... NEM did report really good earnings so thats a little part. Perhaps part of the reason for the smackdown.
 
COMEX delivers 5,513,773.035 troy ounces (171.5 metric tons) of silver from registered to eligible yesterday. I assume this is the start of the deliveries against the July contract. The July contract has 9,344 contracts standing for delivery representing 46,720,000 troy ounces (1,453 metric tons). Looks like they have 41M toz more to go with 191M toz remaining in the registered category.

I'm very curious to see how much of this July contract demand actually leaves the COMEX vaults after being delivered from the registered category.
 
No. As I understand it, contracts for July had to declare by the end of the month and deliveries against contracts standing for delivery begin now.
 
Voodoo said:
They've been delivering July contracts for weeks now.
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I haven't really noticed any drawdowns on the registered category that would indicate this was happening.
 
pmbug said:
I haven't really noticed any drawdowns on the registered category that would indicate this was happening.
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I'm just talking about what the heck contract month we are in. It should be about the first day to announce delivery on remaining August contracts.

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