Tracking Trump's Tariffs and Turbulent Trade Talks

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Tariffs and Deportations – Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?​

The good news: Tariffs can increase overall U.S. manufacturing employment in the long run. The bad news: Tariffs are likely to reduce U.S. manufacturing employment in the short term, and to cause more reallocation of workers across individual sectors than bring overall employment growth.

Moreover, employment could fall sharply in the short run and remain depressed for many years before it eventually recovers, due to supply-chain adjustment frictions.

That’s the conclusion from Joseph B. Steinberg, in his recent paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), titled “Tariffs, Manufacturing Employment, and Supply Chains.”

More:

www.supplychainbrain.com

Tariffs and Deportations – Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?

According to multiple academic and think tank studies, neither will bring dramatic improvements, and they may instead harm the economy.
www.supplychainbrain.com
 

Congress Must Reclaim Its Constitutional Authority Over Trade​

This op-ed is part of a series laying out a cross-partisan vision to restore congressional authority as outlined in Article I of the Constitution and protect our system of checks and balances.

Our Founders deliberately placed the power to "regulate commerce with foreign nations" with Congress for a reason. The legislative branch, closest to the people, was always intended to decide the terms of our economic relationships with the world because trade policy has always been about more than tariffs – it shapes our economy, our diplomacy, and our national security.

Yet Congress has steadily ceded its constitutional role in trade policy to the executive branch over the course of many decades. What was once the responsibility of the People's Branch has increasingly become the domain of presidents who wield tariffs and trade agreements as instruments of foreign and domestic policy. This imbalance was not created overnight. But the result is a dangerous concentration of power that runs contrary to our constitutional order.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opin...ority-over-trade/ar-AA1NbpS9?ocid=socialshare
 

No, Mr. President, Tariff Challengers Don’t “Hate Our Country”​

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump’s eulogy at conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s memorial service unfortunately spun off into a politically charged airing of grievances. After declaring that his “[t]ariffs are making us rich again,” for example, Trump added that “the only ones challenging them are people that hate our country or foreign countries that are paying a price.”

The facts, of course, say otherwise.

Read the rest:

 

Trump says US will distribute aid to farmers until tariffs kick in to their benefit​

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States would give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers.

"We're going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers," Trump said at the White House.

The U.S. farm economy is slumping this year due to low crop prices and trade disputes. Republican lawmakers have warned that farmers are facing significant losses and have urged the administration to issue aid by the end of the year.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...to-their-benefit/ar-AA1NiJ81?ocid=socialshare
 

Shares of Paccar - Peterbilt and Kenworth owner - soar after Trump’s heavy truck tariffs​

  • Paccar is the owner of Peterbilt and Kenworth.
  • It manufactures more than 90% of its U.S. trucks domestically but they cost more than competitors in Mexico.
  • Trump’s tariffs likely address the issue, Bank of America said.
Shares of Paccar jumped Friday after President Donald Trump announced that he will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks beginning Oct. 1.

Paccar was last up more than 6% premarket.

Trump said in a social media post Thursday that “large Truck Company Manufacturers, such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks, and others, will be protected from the onslaught of outside interruptions.”

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Under Trump, US cedes its share of China's beef market to Australia​

By Peter Hobson and Tom Polansek

CANBERRA/CHICAGO (Reuters) -Australian beef has replaced U.S. supply in China since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, funneling hundreds of millions of dollars that have in previous years gone to the U.S. cattle industry into Australian pockets.

U.S. shipments to China, worth around $120 million a month, collapsed after Beijing in March allowed permits to expire at hundreds of American meat facilities and as Trump unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff war.

Other U.S. farm exports to China, the world's biggest food importer, have also suffered since Trump retook power. On soybeans alone, U.S. farmers have lost out on shipments worth billions of dollars during the current harvest season.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...ket-to-australia/ar-AA1Nv6LM?ocid=socialshare
 

Sign of the Tariff Times? Claas Shifts LEXION 8000 Combine Production From Omaha to Germany​

German farm machinery manufacturer Claas has issued a statement reading, in part, that “to remain competitive in the Canadian market under current tariff and trade conditions, CLAAS will transition production of 2026 model year LEXION 8000 Series combines destined for Canada to Germany.”

By implementing this production shift, Claas would avoid paying the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs currently in place between the U.S. and Canada. Products manufactured in Germany and shipped into the U.S. are subject to a 15% blanket tariff, with some exemptions.

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Major combine manufacturer moves production from U.S. to Europe amid trade uncertainty​

Sep 26, 2025
Combine manufacturer CLAAS is moving the production of its Canadian-bound products from its facility in Omaha, Neb., to Harsewinkel, Germany.


2:15
 

S. Korea unable to pay US$350 bln in cash to U.S. for tariff deal: security adviser​

SEOUL, Sept. 29 (Yonhap) -- National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said Monday that South Korea is unable to fulfill its US$350 billion investment pledge to the United States in cash under a framework deal that lowered tariffs, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the investment package would be made "upfront."

Wi made the remarks as Seoul and Washington have been hammering out the details of the investment package to finalize a framework deal in July that lowered the U.S. tariffs from 25 percent to 15 percent.

"From our perspective, it is not possible to pay $350 billion in cash," Wi told reporters.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...security-adviser/ar-AA1Nvlld?ocid=socialshare
 

Wall Street, Republicans and some courts have tried to stop Trump’s tariffs. Here’s why they’re still in place​

A majority of Americans — regardless of party affiliation — have made it crystal clear in poll after poll: They’re not on board with President Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy agenda. It’s also an open question as to whether the president is legally able to impose the levies. But none of that has stopped him. Instead, he’s preparing to roll out a slew of higher tariffs this week and has made fresh threats that more are still to come.

That’s even as inflation has reaccelerated and could get even hotter as businesses warn of more price increases. The US labor market is also sputtering under the weight of tariffs, with employers hesitating to take on more workers amid heightened economic uncertainty.

At the same time, stocks are near all-time highs; and mortgage rates, after months of barely budging, are finally starting to move lower. That’s just the validation Trump needs to stand his ground on tariffs despite their dwindling popularity.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...e-still-in-place/ar-AA1NAn32?ocid=socialshare
 
Bloomberg

US Lawmakers Give Up on China Resuming Crop Purchases for Now​


(Bloomberg) -- Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing from David Perdue, the US ambassador to that country.

As part of the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the world’s largest soybean importer.

“We recognize that China has intentionally not bought farm goods. We don’t expect them to change that. That’s part of the long-term stuff,” Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, said after the briefing Tuesday.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...urchases-for-now/ar-AA1NCYuC?ocid=socialshare
 
Who is China been buying soybeans from?
....and who bought them in the past?
 
Joe King said:
Who is China been buying soybeans from?
....and who bought them in the past?
Click to expand...

Grok

Overview of China's Soybean ImportsChina, the world's largest soybean importer, relies heavily on imports to meet its demand for animal feed and oil processing, consuming over 60% of the global supply. In the 2025/26 marketing year (October 2025–September 2026), imports are forecasted at 106 million metric tons (MMT), a slight decline from 107 MMT in 2024/25 due to restrained crushing demand and government efforts to curb growth. Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions—including 20% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods—China has significantly reduced purchases from the United States, shifting sourcing toward South American suppliers. Through July 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China dropped 51% year-over-year, with sales effectively halting during the peak U.S. harvest season in September.Primary SuppliersChina's imports are dominated by Brazil and Argentina, which together account for the vast majority of shipments. The U.S. share has plummeted to near zero in recent months, though it may resume in smaller volumes later in the year if trade talks progress. Based on 2023/24 data (the most recent full-year breakdown available) and 2025 trends:

CountryShare of China's Imports (2023/24)Key 2025 Trends
Brazil~69%Record shipments: 12.1 MMT in May alone; over 70% of total imports in early 2025. Driven by Brazil's harvest season (March–June) and direct partnerships with Chinese distributors. Expected to maintain dominance in 2025/26.
Argentina~15–20% (estimated)Surging activity: Over 1 MMT purchased in September 2025 after export tax suspension; at least 10 cargoes (650,000 MT) booked for November. Filling the U.S. gap amid logistical improvements.
United States~10–15% (down from 52% of U.S. exports pre-2018)Near-zero in Q3 2025; total ag exports to China down 53% in first seven months. Buyers hedging against Q4 disruptions but prioritizing alternatives.
Others (e.g., Canada, Russia)<5%Minor volumes; no significant shifts reported in 2025.

Recent Developments (as of September 2025)
  • Record Imports Early in Year: China imported a record 13.9 MMT in May 2025 (up 36% year-over-year), followed by highs in June–August, building inventories amid trade uncertainties.
  • Trade War Impact: Beijing's boycott of U.S. soybeans—coupled with strong Brazilian supply—has left U.S. farmers sidelined, with new-crop sales at a 20-year low.
  • Future Outlook: Q4 supply fears could prompt limited U.S. buys if talks advance, but South American reliance is expected to persist, with total imports stable at ~106 MMT for 2025/26.
This diversification strategy helps China mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions while securing steady supplies for its livestock sector.
 

Taiwan rejects U.S. proposal for ’50-50′ chip production, says trade talks focused on tariffs​

  • U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had proposed in an interview that Taiwan make 50% of the chips U.S. needs locally.
  • Taiwan’s top negotiator said the proposal was not discussed in trade talks with the U.S.
Taiwan will not accept Washington’s proposal to locally manufacture half the chips it currently supplies to the U.S., the island’s top trade negotiator said.

Speaking to reporters, Cheng Li-chiun, also the country’s vice premier, said on Wednesday that the proposal for a “50-50” split in semiconductor production was not even discussed, as she returned from trade talks in the U.S., according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.

More:

 
If China is suddenly buying huge amounts of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, who did Brazil and Argentina previously sell their soybeans to?
 
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Canadian lobster now cheaper than steak, after China shifts supply chains to Vietnam​

Sep 30, 2025
The Canadian lobster industry is suffering major losses, after high tariffs from China have closed off exports to the world's largest lobster importer.
Earlier this year, China's Commerce Ministry announced 25% tariffs on Canadian lobster, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese cars, steel, and aluminum.
Lobster prices collapsed, and are now cheaper than beef, as Vietnam's lobster sales to China skyrocketed, increasing over 30 times.
China also relaxed earlier restrictions on Australian lobster imports.
Lobstermen in Canada are desperate for a diplomatic solution before the Chinese market is lost permanently. They are dependent on sales to the United States, also a major producer of lobster, where consumer sentiment is at record lows.


5:24

Resources and links:

- South China Morning Post, Canada’s lobster exporters feel the pinch as China’s tariffs snip priceshttps://www.scmp.com/economy/global-e...
- SCMP, Canada’s dual tariff battles with US and China threaten to strain world trade systemhttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplo...
- Lobster industry breathes sigh of relief as tariff threat walked back for nowhttps://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/nova-...
- Canadian lobster industry takes CAD 77m hit from Chinese tariffshttps://www.undercurrentnews.com/2025...
- SCMP, Vietnamese lobsters claw back to prominence in China after temporary diphttps://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
- China Resumes Live Rock Lobster Imports from Australiahttps://www.china-briefing.com/news/c...
 

This GOP Texas congressman has a warning for Donald Trump on tariffs​

U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, the Austin Republican and former chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee, warned Wednesday that President Donald Trump's tariff regime could make allies in Asia and South America more vulnerable to Chinese influence.

McCaul, who announced he would not seek reelection last month, said in an interview that the president's trade deals are risking U.S. relationships abroad.

"I know the ultimate goal is free and fair trade. I'm all for that. But you have to have a sort of methodical way of doing it and I prefer to tariff our adversaries rather than our allies, especially in this period of time where we really need them in the Pacific," he said. "Countries like Vietnam, where we're tariffing the majority of their GDP, it makes them more vulnerable to China."

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...trump-on-tariffs/ar-AA1NKRSH?ocid=socialshare
 
searcher said:
The Canadian lobster industry is suffering major losses, after high tariffs from China have closed off exports to the world's largest lobster importer.
Earlier this year, China's Commerce Ministry announced 25% tariffs on Canadian lobster, in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese cars, steel, and aluminum.
Click to expand...
I thought only Trump used the awful tariffs. lol
 

Trump wants Japan to fund his government's ambitious government spending. What's in it for them?​

The Trump administration has big plans for the massive pot of money promised by Japan and other countries as part of their trade deals with the United States. But the eye-popping sums, as well as the White House’s demands for near-total control of the money, are raising doubts that the funding will ever materialize.

The White House’s July handshake trade agreement with the Japanese government included a pledge from Tokyo to invest $550 billion — more than 10 percent of the country’s GDP in 2024 — in the U.S. over President Donald Trump’s term. In September, the Japanese government released a memorandum of understanding providing more details on the agreement, which startled close observers, other foreign leaders and even some in Japan.

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‘Just comical’: Farmer criticizes Trump’s tariff revenue plan | Morning in America​

Oct 4, 2025 #Agriculture #Politics #Trump
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs joins "Morning in America with Hena Doba" to explain the current state of play for America’s agriculturalists, who he said are suffering losses mostly because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The president has said he plans on using tariff revenue to bail out farmers, which Gibbs called “the most ridiculous” idea.

5:17
 
Fortune opinion piece. Take it fwiw and wait and see what happens.

Trade and legal experts see up to 80% odds that the Supreme Court will rule against Trump’s global tariffs​

The Supreme Court will likely agree with lower courts that ruled President Donald Trump can’t use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs, according experts surveyed by JPMorgan.

The bank hosted a conference in London last month, and in a note on Monday it summarized highlights from a session on Trump’s trade policies.

Trade and legal experts said the odds that the high court will rule against the Trump administration are 70%-80% and expect a decision by the end of the year, according to the note, which added that the justices may not follow traditional ideological divides.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...s-global-tariffs/ar-AA1NRXpU?ocid=socialshare
 
The Telegraph

Trump sparks anger in Italy over pasta tariffs​

Giorgia Meloni’s government has attacked a decision by Donald Trump to slap Italian pasta makers with 92pc tariffs, pledging to pressure Washington to reverse the move.

The US has slapped a 92pc anti-dumping duty on two major Italian pasta producers, La Molisana and Garofalo, with a dozen other companies potentially also in the firing line.

Read it all:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...er-pasta-tariffs/ar-AA1NTU1O?ocid=socialshare
 

New Section 301 Vessel Fees: What You Need to Know About Implementation​

offshorecompliance.net

New Section 301 Vessel Fees: What You Need to Know About Implementation - Offshore Compliance Services

The U.S. Trade Representative has established significant new fees affecting vessels arriving at U.S. ports, set to take effect on October 14, 2025. Here’s what vessel operators, owners, and shipping professionals need to understand about these changes. Overview On April 17, 2025, the USTR...
offshorecompliance.net offshorecompliance.net
 
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