USA credit ratings (Fitch, Moody's, Standard and Poor's)

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ZH pointed out that we did just cross the 100% debt/gdp ratio the other day, even without considering unfunded mandates. Something's gotta give, but so far this has been like watching grass grow...
 
The loss of AAA ratings by Fitch, et. al. in addition to the unilateral downgrade by S&P a while back, will force financial institutions to accept/recognize the loss of AAA status. This will in turn affect a lot of pension and hedge funds that require investments in AAA rated vehicles - causing them to dump Treasuries.
 
The loss of AAA ratings by Fitch, et. al. in addition to the unilateral downgrade by S&P a while back, will force financial institutions to accept/recognize the loss of AAA status. This will in turn affect a lot of pension and hedge funds that require investments in AAA rated vehicles - causing them to dump Treasuries.

Pensions and funds that require AAA ratings are going to start running out of assets they can own. I'm not really sure what will happen once treasuries start falling. The market could get pretty crazy pretty fast.

Unless someone else steps up to the plate and downgrades ahead of the election, Fitch is giving the US one year to get ahead of this.
 
Pensions and funds that require AAA ratings are going to start running out of assets they can own. I'm not really sure what will happen once treasuries start falling. The market could get pretty crazy pretty fast.

Unless someone else steps up to the plate and downgrades ahead of the election, Fitch is giving the US one year to get ahead of this.
Treasuries have been in a bull market since 1981. This long term cycle is coming to an end anyway.
Richard Homer´s book "A history of interest rates" describes this brilliantly. Bonds tend to have ~ 30 year bull/bear cycles. It´s time for a bear market in bonds.
I hold a small 3x short position in 10 years through an ETF. I don´t expect a crash to happen tomorrow, but once it starts all hell will breake loose.
 
I don´t expect a crash to happen tomorrow, but once it starts all hell will breake loose.

The fact that treasuries are able to be sold with yields this lows baffles me. I guess i'm just crazy for not wanting to lend our government money at negative real interest rates.
 
I found the following this morning while researching this topic:

Fitch: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2023)


Moody's: USA rating AAA with outlook negative (November 2023)


Standard and Poors: USA rating AA+ (downgraded August 2011)

 
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