2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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What 'position' would be the safety net?
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I'm getting stimulated... how about you??



Current situation:

1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks
2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package
3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package
4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st
5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year
6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program
7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion
8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months

In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way?
 
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US executives and US consumers have polar opposite views on inflation:

Mentions of "inflation" during S&P 500 earnings calls dropped to 4,300 this quarter, the lowest since Q4 2020.

The number of mentions has fallen -32,700, or -88%, over the last 3 years.

By comparison, during the first quarter of the year, there were 11,700 mentions.

This is sharply different from consumer expectations, which see inflation rising 4.7% over the next 12 months.

Households expect a 3.2% inflation increase over the next year, according to the New York Fed survey.

Corporate America has moved on from inflation, while Main Street remains concerned.
 
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