Fed will overshoot rate increases

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Voodoo said:
Can't be done. Sorry too late, its just math. I don't think it ever really could be done in a debt based system. Unless there is no interest on the debt.
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In that case, throw the student loans on the burn pile too, can't be asking the kids to do what we don't have the balls to do.
 
Voodoo said:
Can't be done. Sorry too late, its just math. I don't think it ever really could be done in a debt based system. Unless there is no interest on the debt.
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The interest gets spent back into circulation and can therefore be used again to pay further interest.

Also, the bonds the gov owes on are mostly from already existing money. Therefore most of the principle gets re-spent into circulation too.



Fatrat said:
At this point I'd rather "Crash and burn" here...stick the proverbial gun to the head and start the fight now.
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No one is going to just let the system crash if the means to not have it crash right now, still exists.
 
They will.monetize the debt to lower it and send it to the future.
 
That's another thing we got to stop, I'm angry as hell at all the bastards who dumped this shit on me. No dumping it on the next guy...
 
Fatrat said:
That's another thing we got to stop, I'm angry as hell at all the bastards who dumped this shit on me. No dumping it on the next guy...
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Then that means you gotta be the one to pay it instead of passing it along.
....but you can't. Same as the ones that handed it to you couldn't.


By "you", I mean this current generation.
 

Potential Fed chair pick David Zervos of Jefferies backs aggressive interest rate cuts​

  • Wall Street veteran David Zervos added his name Thursday to the list of potential Federal Reserve chairs who think the central bank is past due in approving an interest rate reduction.
  • For the past three Fed meetings, Zervos has advocated a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and he repeated that position during a CNBC interview.
Wall Street veteran David Zervos added his name Thursday to the list of potential Federal Reserve chairs who think the central bank is past due in approving an interest rate reduction.

The chief market strategist at Jefferies told CNBC that central bankers shouldn’t be daunted by the July producer price index showing pipeline inflation pressures hotter than expected.

Instead, he advocated the Fed move aggressively now to ease as a way to forestall a labor market slowdown and in fact help create a million more jobs. For the past three Fed meetings, Zervos has advocated a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and he repeated that position during an interview.

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They were talking 1/4 point cuts last week and this week it's 1/2. How about two 3/4 cuts instead?
 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell may seriously disappoint Wall Street at Jackson Hole​

  • Wall Street overwhelmingly expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates next month, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday will give him a chance to hint at which direction policymakers are headed. But some analysts don’t think a September rate cut is in the bag, and even some that do expect a cut are doubtful that Powell will tease it at Jackson Hole.
All eyes will turn to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, when he is scheduled to deliver a highly anticipated speech at a central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

The annual event previously has served as an opportunity for policymakers to tease forthcoming rate moves. Last year, Powell signaled a pivot to cuts, saying “the time has come for policy to adjust” and that “my confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

Wall Street overwhelmingly expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, after holding off for months as President Donald Trump’s tariffs ripple through the economy. That’s as Trump and the White House have put immense pressure on the Fed to ease while a more dovish governor was named to the board of governors.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/eco...-at-jackson-hole/ar-AA1KGVeL?ocid=socialshare
 

Fed Chair Powell set to deliver big Jackson Hole speech Friday. Here’s what Wall Street expects​


  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver what almost certainly will be his last keynote address at the central bank’s annual conclave during one of the most tumultuous times in its history.
  • Amid several controversies, Powell could use the speech to at least take a sideswipe at the political distractions even if he holds to past practice of not taking direct aim.
  • The speech is billed as an “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” indicating Powell will take time to provide his views on broad conditions as well as discuss the Fed’s long-term policy goals.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver what almost certainly will be his last keynote address at the central bank’s annual conclave during one of the most tumultuous times in its history.

What’s at stake is the near-term sentiment for financial markets, the longer-term path of the Fed’s policy trajectory, and a not insignificant dose of trying to preserve vestiges of independence at a time when the normally sacrosanct institution is facing enormous political pressure.

If Friday’s speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, goes at all like Powell’s first seven-plus years in office, it will feature a calm and collected veneer even if masking the weight that he and his colleagues have been under all year.

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Trump has fired Fed board member Lisa Cook. The Fed board will either bend the knee or face a kangaroo court and be removed apparently. Market is understanding that the Fed board is more likely to cut rates to Trump's whim now. Gold and silver popped up and the dollar index is down.
 
Firing Lisa Cook will backfire, basically she is accused of the same financial shenanigans Trump was accused of. About impossible to prove and dubious at best.
 
Looks like she may not leave. Be interesting to see how this plays out.

 
^
Might be wrong but I think T may be trying to get rid of anyone who won't bow their head to him, replace them with boot licking trash so he can be the one making all decisions. I don't think the just wants to be a dictator, he wants to be a god.

 

Fed responds to Trump effort to fire Lisa Cook​

  • The Federal Reserve said it would abide by any court decision on whether President Donald Trump has the legal authority to fire Board of Governors member Lisa Cook.
  • Trump said on Monday night he was removing Cook as Fed governor because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud.
  • The Fed noted that presidents can only remove the central bank’s governors “for cause.”
  • Cook has vowed not to quit her post.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said it would abide by any court decision on whether President Donald Trump has the legal authority to fire Board of Governors member Lisa Cook.

The Fed, in a statement from a spokesperson, noted that “Cook has indicated through her personal attorney that she will promptly challenge this action in court and seek a judicial decision that would confirm her ability to continue to fulfill her responsibilities as a Senate-confirmed member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.”

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searcher said:
^
Might be wrong but I think T may be trying to get rid of anyone who won't bow their head to him, replace them with boot licking trash so he can be the one making all decisions. I don't think the just wants to be a dictator, he wants to be a god.

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So you think it's ok for her to lie on her mortgage applications?

All we heard for the past Decade is that no one is above the law, and the law clearly states that the potus can fire them "for cause".

You act as though he just woke up and decided to fire her for no cause at all.


Fatrat said:
Firing Lisa Cook will backfire, basically she is accused of the same financial shenanigans Trump was accused of. About impossible to prove and dubious at best.
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How is it impossible to prove? She signed the docs stating that both homes would be her primary residences, and did both within a short time.

In a position like hers, she should avoid even the appearance of impropriety.
 
EndGame Macro said:
The Risk of the U.S. Economy No One Is Talking About

If the Fed cuts rates in September, history suggests it will likely confirm the beginning of an easing cycle that coincides with rising unemployment. Every sustained easing cycle of the past half century has followed, not prevented, economic deterioration. This time, the risks stretch across every layer of the credit system, leaving households, banks, pensions, and governments exposed.

Corporate bonds are the first fault line. High yield still pays north of 7% and investment grade 5–6%, but spreads are near historic lows, leaving little buffer against defaults already climbing above 4%. Companies that borrowed cheaply in the 2010s now face refinancing at double or triple those rates. Lower Fed Funds won’t solve the problem: weaker earnings and a slowing economy will pressure debt service further. Banks and insurers that hold leveraged loans and corporate bonds will face both rising defaults and declining recovery values.

Municipalities look safer on paper, but the cracks are clear. Cities and towns rely on property tax backed bonds to fund schools, roads, and infrastructure. If the Fed is cutting because growth and employment are weakening, property values and tax receipts will follow. Debt service, however, is fixed. That leaves local governments forced to raise taxes on a shrinking base or cut essential services. The burden ultimately falls on taxpayers and public sector workers, while muni bondholders expect to be paid in full.

Pensions sit directly in the middle. Decades of low yields forced them into private equity, real estate, and high yield credit. These illiquid assets can mask valuation declines until a downturn forces recognition. Meanwhile, pensions are structurally cash flow negative: more going out to retirees than coming in from workers. As unemployment rises, contributions shrink further, forcing more asset sales into weak markets. Retirees, municipal governments, and ultimately taxpayers are exposed when funding gaps widen.

At the top of the system lies the federal government. Between now and 2026, $12–14 trillion of debt must be refinanced. Much of it was issued when rates were near 1.5%; it now rolls at 4–5%. Even with Fed cuts, Treasury issuance remains enormous, crowding out demand for risk assets. Interest costs are on track to exceed $1 trillion annually, straining fiscal capacity. Holders of Treasuries like banks, pensions, foreign governments are exposed to both mark to market losses and the risk of crowd out that pressures every other borrower.

Finally, households, the ground floor of the credit system are already flashing red. Serious credit card delinquencies are near financial crisis levels. Auto loan delinquencies, especially in subprime, have surpassed them. Student loan delinquencies are climbing fast since the payment pause ended. And commercial office space delinquencies have already broken through 2008 peaks. The exposure here runs wide: banks that originated the loans, ABS investors holding securitizations, landlords reliant on office income, and pensions that own slices of all of it.

Each of these risks alone would be manageable. What makes this moment different is how tightly interlocked they are. Households under pressure shrink tax bases for cities. Corporate and CRE stress flows straight to bank balance sheets. Pensions are exposed to all of it, just as the Treasury’s refinancing wall towers over the rest. And if history holds, a Fed easing cycle means unemployment will climb, magnifying every one of these pressures.

This isn’t just one sector at risk. It’s the entire credit ecosystem of households, cities, pensions, banks, and the federal government leveraged against itself. And almost no one is talking about it.
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Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point​

  • In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point.
  • However, traders left open a remote chance that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a half-point reduction.
  • Fed officials will get inflation data later this week on producer and consumer prices, the last major data releases before the meeting. Higher-than-expected CPI would likely cement the quarter-point move.
More:

Traders are leaving open the option the Federal Reserve next week could cut its key interest rate by half a percentage point, though most on Wall Street think the bar for doing so is pretty high.

In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point. Odds for a quarter-point cut were around 88% on Monday afternoon, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool that measures odds of Fed action based on 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

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Grandma needs a new pair of orthopedic shoes. Let's go 1/2!!!
 
Rate cut not justified, but probably a 1/4 point to appease the fat orange man...
 

U.S. economy is worse than thought with 1.2 million fewer jobs — what that means for the Fed​

  • With job growth tanking and the economy wobbling, pressure is on for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
  • Market expectations have shifted notably on rates as trouble signs have built around employment.
More:

With job growth tanking and the economy wobbling, pressure is on for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates, with markets now expecting a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for the year preceding March 2025. Downward revisions since the cutoff date in that report suggest that the reduction in payroll growth has been actually around 1.2 million for the past 16 months.

More:

 
They aren't padding the numbers with no show government jobs now.
 

Trump handed legal loss as judge blocks him from firing Lisa Cook​

A federal judge temporarily blocked President Donald Trump's attempt to oust Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, allowing her to continue serving as she contests her recent dismissal, according to the court ruling.

Newsweek contacted the White House for comment via email after office hours.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...firing-lisa-cook/ar-AA1MeQz5?ocid=socialshare
 
Wednesday's the day. I'm wondering how much they'll cut.

Anyone moving into CD's and / or treasuries before then?
 
pmbug said:
I moved to physical silver. I'm concerned about strong risk of stock market crash/correction.
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That might not be a good idea with an Airbnb neighbor. Luckily, I still have room in my vault for safe storage. I won’t even charge you my normal fees. In fact, for hosting this lovely forum for us, I’ll even pay for shipping.
 

Trump cannot fire Fed’s Lisa Cook before FOMC meeting, appeals court rules​

  • A federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the central bank’s policy committee votes on whether to lower interest rates.
  • The ruling means that Cook, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday morning.
A federal appeals court ruled Monday that President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the central bank’s policy committee votes on whether to lower interest rates.

The ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit means that Cook, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday morning.

More:

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www.cnbc.com
 

Trump pick Stephen Miran confirmed to Federal Reserve Board; will also keep White House job​

  • The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
  • Miran will participate in the Fed policy committee’s upcoming meeting, where the board will consider whether to cut interest rates.
  • Miran will also keep his White House position at the helm of the Council of Economic Advisors, but will take an unpaid leave to serve on the central bank board.
The Senate on Monday confirmed President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve, Stephen Miran, just one day before the central bank meets to consider whether to cut interest rates.

Miran’s fast-tracked confirmation by a vote of 48-47 late Monday means he will attend the board’s highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington D.C., which begins Tuesday.

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searcher said:

Trump cannot fire Fed’s Lisa Cook before FOMC meeting, appeals court rules​

  • A federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the central bank’s policy committee votes on whether to lower interest rates.
  • The ruling means that Cook, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday morning.
A federal appeals court ruled Monday that President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the central bank’s policy committee votes on whether to lower interest rates.

The ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit means that Cook, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday morning.

More:

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www.cnbc.com
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Something that bothers me, doesn't Trump have more Felony convictions than any other President in history...
 
Fatrat said:
Something that bothers me, doesn't Trump have more Felony convictions than any other President in history...
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Yeah...............lol He's one of a kind.

Edit to add:

Trump criminal charges guidebook: Here are all the felony counts against the former president​

www.yahoo.com

Trump criminal charges guidebook: Here are all the felony counts against the former president

Yahoo News breaks down exactly what Trump is being charged with in each case as well as the judges, prosecutors, co-defendants and key dates.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
The voices in my head said it should have been a half point.
 
Fatrat said:
Something that bothers me, doesn't Trump have more Felony convictions than any other President in history...
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Does it bother you that those charges were all trumped up (pardon the pun) in an attempt to turn his supporters?
....and the fake rape allegations were only possible due to NY changing a law just so she could file charges after the statute of limitations was up.

The law they changed reverted back after 12 Months. It was only changed in order to get Trump.
...but the only thing that bothers you is the result of the dems lawfare against him? Not the weaponization of the law against him? If they could do it to him, they could do it to any of us.
 
Joe, are you saying Trump was a rapist, but the Statute of Limitations was up so it doesn't matter he was a rapist? In any case, being a felon doesn't matter if you're President, it should not matter for lessor jobs.
 
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Fatrat said:
Joe, are you saying Trump was a rapist, but the Statute of Limitations was up so it doesn't matter he was a rapist? In any case, being a felon doesn't matter if you're President, it should not matter for lessor jobs.
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I'm not saying he is.

It's the Carrol bitch is sayin' he is, but she can't even remember what year it supposedly happened in.

What I am asking, is if it bothers you at all that so many bogus charges were brought against him for purely political purposes?

You don't have to support someone to be able recognize when they've been done wrong.
 
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