French fried markets Monday morning?

pmbug

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Any speculation on how the French Connection election is going to affect markets tomorrow? It's looking like Hollande may beat Sarkozy in the run off election. That is going to be a thorn in Germany's austerity desires. Storm clouds coalescing over the Euro?
 

ancona

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No way. Hollande is going to toe the line.....I practically guarantee it. He may talk a good game, and he may have won over a majority in France, but he will do what his EU masters decree. If he challenges the status quo, the market will respond by plunging, wiping a shitload of wealth off balance sheets over night, and he will be shown the light and the way. This is beyond politics now, and has become about the survival of Europe as we know it.
 

ancona

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French election.....

Well,
The first polls are showing Hollande as the winner in France tonight. I'll bet the markets won't like it.

Who wants to bet on a market tantrum tomorrow?
 

DSAbug

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EuRo looks bad overnight..

Spy futures arent trading yet but it should be ugly.

Who knows what gold will do...
 

pmbug

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Looks like gold is up and silver is down right out of the gates if I'm seeing things correctly.
 

swissaustrian

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Euro will be down.
Metals? Fear trade might drive gold up, at least in Euros, i.e. it should fall less than the Euro against the USD.
French stocks, particularly those with huge government ownership, will be down on fears of nationalization (like under Mitterand, Hollande's former boss) and/or government intervention through socialist board members.
International stocks? No clue. Maybe slightly downward. Swiss stock index (SMI) will probably be up a tiny bit due to the defensive heavyweights (Nestlé, Novartis, Roche) which are always going up when the USD strengthens against the CHF.
Greece is the joker: Is there going to be a strong anti-bailout movement in the new parliament? I doubt it, some small parties are going to be bribed to support the two establishment parties on their bailout road.
 
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