Premiums rising for physical silver (and gold)

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Please have a look around and if you like what you see, please consider registering an account and joining the discussions. When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Benefactor
Messages
13,951
Reaction score
4,365
Points
268
Location
Texas
United-States
It was just a couple days ago that The Doc @ SilverDoctors posted a note about BullionDirect having problems and wherein he stated:
...
While Tyler Durden and others among the PM community immediately began speculating that a significant bullion delivery shortage/issue has developed, SDBullion can confirm that this is NOT the case in the US wholesale market.

While demand has increased exponentially in the past several weeks with both gold and silver near recent lows, and spiked even more dramatically beginning June 27th with speculation that a Greek default was imminent, major mints and distributors are still acquiring and shipping large quantities of bullion in what we would describe as normal with current market conditions.
...

Now it appears there is indeed some tightness going on:
...
Below is an update of the physical precious metals markets over the past 48 hours:

90% premiums skyrocketed over the weekend after the Greek Referendum vote with availability nearly nill- wholesalers/distributors are now offering 90% silver in volume at up to $3 over spot, and supplies are rapidly vanishing

Just before noon Tuesday, the US Mint advised Authorized Primary Dealers it had SOLD OUT of all Silver Eagle coins, and would be taking no further orders until approximately August, at which point it would begin rationing coins to Authorized Dealers.

Silver Eagle premiums instantly skyrocketed across the market, with premiums rising as high as $3.25 over spot/oz WHOLESALE / IN BULK

Between 4pm EST and 5pm EST on Tuesday 7/7, one of the largest Authorized Dealers sold through 250,000 Silver Eagles and raised premiums .50/oz further!

SDBullion broke all-time sales records Tuesday for order volume as well as total ounces sold- with demand FAR OUTPACING the Nov 5th 2014 bottom for gold and silver which had previously held both records.

Later in the afternoon, premiums began surging on Silver Maples and silver rounds and bars, and Authorized Dealers are advising that a production and premium hike announcement is expected imminently from the Royal Canadian Mint.

Wholesale premiums on many silver rounds and 10 and 100 oz bars HAVE DOUBLED in 48 hours.

SDBullion received a wholesale quote from one of the largest Authorized Dealers Wednesday for nearly $5/oz over spot for 5,000 oz of current year America The Beautiful Coins- a premium spike of over 100% in less than 24 hours!

Tuesday, the Sunshine Mint rounds and bars went from immediately available to production completely sold through August 13th in under 4 hours!

In many cases, physical silver is now MORE EXPENSIVE to acquire (on both a wholesale as well as retail level) after a $1/oz paper smash than it was prior to this week’s trip down the proverbial mine-shaft!

Wednesday the shortage began to spread to GOLD products.

Back dated gold Eagles and Maples are now NON EXISTENT on the US wholesale market.

Current year gold coins are now 2 weeks out at most of the Authorized Dealers. This type of gold shortage did not occur even when gold dipped to $1130 last November.

While spot/paper prices have stabilized today, if any further weakness materializes in the paper futures markets for gold and silver, we are looking at the very real potential of 2008 style physical premiums to acquire precious metals.
...

http://www.silverdoctors.com/physic...g-at-the-potential-of-2008-style-pm-premiums/

Now I wish I had been maintaining that Apmex inventory/premium spreadsheet/thread like I used to do. :paperbag:
 
The situation in the silver market seems to point to the beginning stages of a GLOBAL RUN ON SILVER. I say, “it seems to point to a RUN on silver” due to several indicators I am looking at. This also may force the global silver market to suffer shortages in the future. Why? Well, let’s take a look at these different indicators.

First, ... U.S. silver imports picked up considerably in the first two months of the year. Well, this continued into March as total U.S. silver imports reached a hefty 1,504 metric tons (mt) compared to 1,129 mt during the same period last year:

<chart>

U.S. silver imports are 33% higher than the first quarter of 2014. ...

Secondly, India is importing the MOST SILVER EVER. As I mentioned in another article, INDIAN SILVER IMPORTS: On Track To Smash All Records, India imported a massive 3,000 mt in the first four months of the year. If this trend continues, India will import a whopping 9,000 mt in 2015, surpassing its previous record of 7,000 mt in 2014.
...
Third, evidence points to a possible tightness in the physical silver market. In Keith Weiner’s recent article, Silver Market Change Report July 5, 2015, he published the following chart on the Silver Cobasis:

Silver-CoBasis.jpg


Keith stated the following about the new change in the silver cobasis:
…. However, look at that red cobasis line go. It was a mere 7 basis points last Friday. It ended this week at 100 bps. The cobasis of farther-out contracts also rose proportionally.

Suddenly, the silver market is firm.

We can name two reasons why the cobasis might skyrocket. One is that there is a risk. If your counterparty defaults, then you don’t get your metal back. You may get dollars. The exchange will insist the dollars are equivalent to the metal, but that’s small consolation.

We do not believe this is the main problem now, because it’s not occurring in gold. If the banks were in imminent danger, the gold basis would not be quiescent.

The other possible reason is that there’s a growing shortage of silver. Of course, in order to decarry silver, you have to have the metal. If it’s not available, you can just wistfully watch the rising cobasis.

Basically, Keith believes the rising cobasis (in RED) is a result of a tightness in the silver market. He goes on to say this is the present condition, but that could change in the future.
...
Fourth, the recent surge in Silver (and Gold) Eagle buying. ...

Fifth, mine supply falling and Government silver sales… ZILCH. As I stated in my article, World’s Largest Silver Producer Down A Stunning 12%, Mexico’s silver production fell precipitously in April compared to the same month last year. ...

... While Peru’s silver production is higher for the year, another large producer is down considerably. Thus, silver production from the top producers in the first 3-4 months of 2015 is down compared to last year. I will do an update on this in a separate article.

One of the most important factors in the SUPPLY-DEMAND situation for silver has to do with Net Government Silver Sales. This chart is from my new report called THE SILVER CHART REPORT. It is listed as Chart #43 of a total of 48 charts in the report. It is a must read for the new and experienced precious metal investor.

As we can see in the chart, net government silver sales were the highest in 2003 at 88.7 Moz. Net government silver sales accounted for 15% of total mine supply in 2003.

Net-Government-Silver-Sales-2003-2014.png


During the following years, net government silver sales continued to decline (except for the spike in 2010) and in 2014 were a big PHAT ZERO. While Russia, China and India were the main sources of net government silver sales, China was by far the largest supplier in the group.

Now, the KEY FACTOR to understand why China stopped selling its government silver stocks into the market is stated in THE SILVER MARKET REPORT. I have to say, I was quite surprised to read the reason China wanted to hold onto to its remaining government silver stocks. If you want to find out why, you have to read the report.
...

More: http://srsroccoreport.com/has-the-g...run-on-silver-begun-shortages-on-the-horizon/
 
About four and a half bucks an ounce per Eagle at Apmex for less than twenty. That's some fat premium!
 
So I did a quick check. Last time I checked the Apmex inventory/premiums was December 2013:
So it's been a month since I last did an update on this. I decided to take look today ...

The following report details the status as of 12/19 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - 110
  • 1 ozt gold bars - 3146
  • 100 ozt silver bars - 1752
...

As of 7/9 @ ~10:30am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - 70
  • 1 ozt gold bars - 3054
  • 100 ozt silver bars - 702
Premiums were more or less the same as they were 12/2013. Inventories are down from the last check, but in line with where they were in July 2013. I'm not seeing the tightness mentioned above in Apmex listings (yet?).
 
Sure seems like that the price adjusted with premiums isn't falling as nearly fast as spot. I guess those fat juicy premiums they are charging with the low prices make it less enticing to buy, at least for me.
 
The Doc is at it again - sounding the warning bell on rising premiums in the silver market:
... The only time premiums across the board for retail silver products were higher than they are right now was during the 2008 take-down of gold and silver. ...

http://www.silverdoctors.com/fund-m...-doc-retail-silver-supplies-are-disappearing/

That's a pretty bold statement. So, I checked Apmex current offerings for 100oz silver bars and the premiums are still pretty much in line with where they have been for years - around $0.99 / ounce over spot. I didn't check inventory numbers. 90% silver however does seem to have a high premium - $5.99 /ounce over spot.
 
Six bucks over is 39.19% premium. I would say that is a healthy premium my friend.
 
So, The Doc has been warning about tightness in the wholesale markets for retail silver products. Bron Suchecki wrote a piece a while back arguing that such tightness usually indicates bottlenecks in the minting process(es) and are not indicative of real supply issues. Now it looks like we are seeing reports of tightness in the bullion markets that indicate true supply issues (with gold at least):
London's gold market is showing tentative signs of increased demand for bullion from consumers in emerging markets, after the price of the precious metal fell to its lowest level in five years in July.

The cost of borrowing physical gold in London has risen sharply in recent weeks. That has been driven by dealers needing gold to deliver to refineries in Switzerland before it is melted down and sent to places such as India, according to market participants.

The rise "does indicate there is physical tightness in the market for gold for immediate delivery," said Jon Butler, analyst at Mitsubishi. ...

http://gata.org/node/15694
 
BoE annual report indicates that London gold vaults are losing their gold inventories:
...
If the calculations above are correct about the 500,000 Good Delivery bars in the London vaults whittling down to about 130 tonnes of gold that’s not accounted for by ETFs and other known gold holders, and that’s not accounted for by the Bank of England vault holdings, then there is surely very little available and unencumbered gold right now in the London Gold Market.

This would explain however the following very recent information from the Financial Times on 2nd September 2015 when it said:
“The cost of borrowing physical gold in London has risen sharply in recent weeks. That has been driven by dealers needing gold to deliver to refineries in Switzerland before it is melted down and sent to places such as India, according to market participants.”

“‘[The rise] does indicate that there is physical tightness in the market for gold for immediate delivery’, said John Butler, analyst at Mitsubishi.”

And it begs the question, why do the dealers need to borrow, and who are they borrowing from. And if the gold is being borrowed and sent to Swiss refineries, and then shipped onward to India (and China), then when will the gold lenders get their gold back.

More: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/r...-vaults-including-the-bank-of-england-vaults/
 
The Doc interviews the CEO of Sunshine Mint:
  • Power on Current Silver Demand: What we’re seeing is reminiscent of 2009-2011. The surge in demand for ANY PRODUCT is something I haven’t seen…people are clamoring for any product they can get their hands on!
  • Demand Surge STRONGER than 2008-09! Sunshine has TRIPLED capacity since 2007 and its still not enough as the market has exploded!
  • SMI’s CEO Reveals US Mint’s Built Up Reserves of Silver Eagles & Blanks CLEANED OUT in Under Two Weeks
  • Power States Sunshine Has Been Running 24/7 Since 2009, and Reveals SMI’s MASSIVE Estimated Production Numbers for 2015



http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-shortage-us-mint-silver-eagle-sunshine-mint-tom-power/
 
My LCS still has some product, although he has more gold than silver. As for his silver, he has more junk than anything else. The thing is though, he keeps raising his premiums. Folks keep buying the stuff and he keeps on raising his premiums. He says the supply lines are tighter than a ducks ass, and they are getting tighter. He buys whenever he can, and pays whatever he has to. Then, he passes what premiums he has to pay for on to us.
 
Even checking out comparesilverprices.com premiums on generic silver ~2 bucks/ozt and eagles just over $4/ozt and maple's just under $4/ozt. :eek:
 
I was just at Apmex. I looked at the prices for ASE's and saw that the CC price for one ASE was 21.30 without shipping, handling, insurance or anything. Just the purchase price. The current bid for silver spot is $14.59, which makes the delta for a credit card purchased American Silver Eagle $6.71. That is a very healthy 45.99%over spot my friends, very healthy indeed.

Now, that comes down significantly if you are buying more than a few eagles, but premiums are still in historic territory, and they don't look to come down any time soon.
 
I was just at Apmex. I looked at the prices for ASE's and saw that the CC price for one ASE was 21.30 without shipping, handling, insurance or anything. Just the purchase price. The current bid for silver spot is $14.59, which makes the delta for a credit card purchased American Silver Eagle $6.71. That is a very healthy 45.99%over spot my friends, very healthy indeed.

Now, that comes down significantly if you are buying more than a few eagles, but premiums are still in historic territory, and they don't look to come down any time soon.

based on 35.27 ounces per kilo, this seems to work out to 14.37 an ounce.
http://www.silver.com/1-kilo-rmc-silver-bars/
I may have done the math wrong.....
 
Following up on post #10, more smoke about the depletion of London's gold inventories:
Just after my colleague Ronan Manly wrote a very extensive article on how much gold is left in London (not much), Petropavlovsk Chairman and Co-Founder Peter Hambro discusses gold at Bloomberg Television. He, like Manly, concludes there is very little physical gold left in London. From Mr Hambro:
My baseline is they [the Chinese] have been buying and the Indian have been buying in enormous quantities. It’s virtually impossible to get physical gold in London to ship to those countries. We get permanent requests from Russia, would we please sell our physical gold to India and China. Because there is no physical, only endless promises. And I really worry that the market, that paper market, could be stamped on and people will say “sorry we’ll have a financial close out”, and it’s all over.
...
I’ve also asked BullionStar CEO Torgny Persson in Singapore what he’s currently seeing in the precious metals markets. He replied there are shortages in both the gold and silver market. From Mr Persson:
I just got off the phone with A-Mark which is one of the world’s largest wholesalers. They are reporting that they have no gold and silver at all live available, that they have stopped taking orders for Silver Maples and Silver Philharmonics altogether and that Silver Eagles are available first in the end of November. For Pamp, there is similarly long delivery times for all minted gold bars.

We still have most products in stock because we stocked up as massively as we could in the last weeks but for many products, we are unable to replenish as of now when we run out.

Big squeeze with shortages starting now both on the wholesale/retail level and at the bulk level… Unless the paper price is reverting up, it may not subside this time around and then the paper fiat mess (including paper prices of gold and silver) is in trouble. If it goes to the point of shortages at the bulk level like 1kg gold bars and 1000 oz silver bars, the emperor will stand without clothes.

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/k...ly-impossible-to-get-physical-gold-in-london/
 
IF you think the current $4.00 premium on a CSM is crazy, I looked at the 90% silver dollars which have a current scrap value of $11.29 are demanding $24 for CULL coins! the decent shape ones are $25-$30+ right now. You could buy 11 dimes which would give you just a bit more silver than a silver dollar (~.022ozt) for about $17-$18, or just buy an ASE/CSM for $18-$19. If collector value is a large part of why silver dollars are so high, I just don't see it with the cull coins, as you are paying almost the same price for a cull coin vs. avg circulated coin. I never understand a lot of people. Like I always used to say, the more people I meet, the more I like my dog, and I shot my dog.
 
Bron says all is well:
...
Of course PSLV is backed by physical metal so how can we explain the fact that PSLV has not had one physical redemption since it listed and is only trading at a very small premium to net asset value if the “silver market is seizing up”? Obviously because wholesale players have no problem acquiring 1,000oz bars and thus don’t want to pay the costs of redeeming from PSLV. ...

More: http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/09/14/who-is-the-player-and-who-is-being-played/
 
I agree with Turd that the Comex numbers are largely meaningless which is why I stopped paying attention to them some time ago. I really don't care for the personal attacks and haughty "gold bugs are idiots" attitude that I see from Bron, KD, Trader Dan, et. al. on the one side and similar and opposite tin foil hat shrieking I see from the other. If they have some relevant facts, information or arguments to present to people, it can be done without the insults. $.02
 
ASE's right now are carrying a ~$5 premium, CSM's are a bit better at ~$3.50 for the best prices shown on compare silver prices dot com.
 
It is important to know that acquiring Gold will allow our savings not to be devalued, we are talking about a cryptocurrency that allows the acquisition of the precious metal.
 
* {super} bump *

Silver is dirt cheap right now. People are apparently buying physical again. The temporary sell out of Silver Eagles has sparked a jump in premiums on silver across the board.

I read this morning where someone claimed that premiums over spot for 90% silver dimes (Roosevelts) were $1.99 while the premiums for 90% silver quarters (Washingtons) were $0.99 at Apmex and that this might be indicative of supply constraints in the wholesale/dealer market. But when I checked just now, I see the premiums for both at $1.99.

Either the initial report was mistaken, or Apmex updated their pricing on the quarters within the last 24 hours or so. Either way, if the spot price of silver stays this low, we might see junk silver becoming difficult to source once again.

Ah... memories:

... 90% silver however does seem to have a high premium - $5.99 /ounce over spot.
 
Hearing more rumors about tightening supply in the wholesale market for 90% silver. 90% silver is the canary in the coal mine with respect to the physical market IMO. They don't make it any more and what little supply exists that actually gets traded around disappears when the public gets serious about buying silver (as we experienced circa 2010-2011 when silver was heading to $50/oz).
 
* COVID 19 bump *

I'm seeing a lot of online metal dealers warning of long shipping times due to large order volume.

Some retailers (Provident, JM Bullion) seem to running out of stock on 90% silver.
 
Posted on March 13, 2020

We wanted to provide our customers with important updates about our company, including a new temporary $299 minimum order, as well as the overall state of the industry.

Over the last few weeks, we have seen record order volume, with yesterday being our largest sales day of all time. We are on pace for another record day today. As a business, we are doing everything we can to keep up, but with a 3-5x increase in order volume, we are unable to answer our phones and ship orders as quickly as usual. You can expect temporary shipping delays of 5-10+ business days while we scale up our operations to satisfy this unprecedented level of demand.
...
The increase in demand is also beginning to strain supply chains, with the US Mint announcing yesterday that American Silver Eagles have temporarily sold out. We expect to see ripple effects at other suppliers and mints in the coming weeks. ...

https://www.jmbullion.com/jm-bullion-update-3-13-20/
 
Dear TPM Clients,

As you all know, the effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) have accelerated what is now a precipitous decline in equities. Access to liquidity in the markets has become an issue, and all asset classes are being affected - including precious metals. This historic turn of events has created a demand shock in the physical precious metals industry. Following years of slow to moderate sales following the Greek crisis in 2015, the entire industry has been cautious to build large inventories. This includes the United States Mint, which experienced a terrible production decline of Silver American Eagles, down to only 14.9M ounces minted in 2019.

As of this morning, the United States Mint is out of Silver American Eagles, and the backlog is tremendous. To ramp up manufacturing production to meet demand will likely take weeks, if not months. If the US Mint is forced to suspend operations due to coronavirus, it remains unclear how drastic the impact will be to the supply chain. Making matters worse, it now appears that imported supply from Europe is going to be cut off. As it now stands, other products are being bid up to help fill that void.

The effects of these events will cause an increase in premiums on the sell side as well as the buy side. We have begun raising premiums on products to compensate for supply/demand constraints. To put it simply, inventory is getting more expensive for us. Additionally, we will be raising our buy back prices aggressively on popular products to help offset demand.
...

https://www.texmetals.com/news/important-update-3-12-2020/

 
Also seeing a couple of online dealers calling the demand "unprecedented".

Below is a statement from Goldcore CEO:

Note that he states that premiums will start increasing for those *selling to* Goldcore. Did that happen back in 2008-2011 on the "sell to dealer" transaction?

Important Notice Regarding Our Services At This Time Of Unprecedented Demand
17, March
GoldCore remain open for business and we like most mints,
refineries and dealers continue to experience record demand.

In light of the unprecedented demand for precious metals and significant disruptions to logistical networks as borders and nations are closed in national lock-downs, we have taken the following decisions and actions:

◆ All new order deliveries will be held in our secure vaults and delivered as soon as is feasible when transport systems return to normal. There may be delays in the delivery of existing orders
◆ Our minimum orders have been increased to $5,000
◆ Maximum credit card transactions have been reduced to $10,000
◆ Silver bullion coins are currently unavailable for delivery or storage.
Clients may purchase silver bars (100 oz and 1,000 oz) in Secure Storage and switch to silver coins when they become available again. Bar availability is becoming limited
◆ Online trading may be suspended in the coming days and be replaced by clients having to trade on the phone
◆ We will only be buying coins and bars from clients who have their assets stored in GoldCore Secure Storage with us for the foreseeable future
◆ Globally premiums on gold and silver coins and bars are set to increase on the buy and sell side
◆ We will buy silver bullion coins at 10% over spot and silver bars (100 oz) at 7% over spot and silver bars (1,000 oz) at spot. This is subsequent to change in the coming days.

Our offices have been closed to visitors since last week but our team are working hard and are here to assist you with your precious metal needs.

We are sorry that we have had to introduce these measures and we hope that they are short term. They are due to significant demand and increasing logistical, financial and systemic challenges in the EU and globally that are beyond our control.

On behalf of all the staff of GoldCore and myself, we wish you and your families good health in these trying days.

Best regards,

Stephen Flood
GoldCore CEO
 
...
Note that he states that premiums will start increasing for those *selling to* Goldcore. Did that happen back in 2008-2011 on the "sell to dealer" transaction?

Yes. Premiums rose on both the buy/sell sides of a deal. Of course dealers made a vig, but it's a business. It was especially noticeable on products like 90% junk (which no one is making anymore, so ...).
 
Bug, didn't you keep a spreadsheet on premiums back in the 2008 era? Might be interesting to do a spot check see how this eras premiums are comparing so far to back then.

And do you recall if the "sell to" premium rose to as much as 10% on silver eagles?
 
Yeah, it's been years since I kept up the premium watch, but I'll have a look tomorrow (don't have time right now) and update the old thread.

I recall that both the buy and sell to premiums on ASEs rose disproportionately to all other forms of silver as the US Mint couldn't keep up with demand and dealers were desperate to shore up inventory to take advantage of buying demand. The US Market prefers ASEs in a crisis (at least, it did circa 2008).
 
...
The demand experienced industry-wide over the past 5 days has been unprecedented. This is worse than Y2K, 9/11, or the Great Financial Crisis. It is the speed at which demand spiked (seemingly overnight) that has crippled the industry. Volume is up over 10x (in some cases much more) in a matter of days. This has strained customer service, logistics, and - relevant to this article - supply. The industry is built for elasticity. We are used to big spikes in demand. We can handle a 1 or 2 standard deviation move. We can't handle a 5 standard deviation move in 5 days.

Distributors sold out of stockpiles in 48 hours. Dealer inventory disappeared immediately. ...

To accommodate for depleted inventories, the distributors place desperate orders with mints, which are caught flatfooted, and immediately attempt to ramp up production. This requires sourcing raw materials and beefing up staff. Since a 1,000% output is impossible, the mints create allocations to distributors which are estimated deliveries tied to production (but not certainties) and represent only a fraction of what they need. The distributors forward sell this expected (but uncertain) volume to dealers, and make up any shortfalls by bleeding into expected allocations which are even further out in time. In normal times (i.e. no National Emergency) the allocations are tenuous at best. During a time of rising civil shut-ins, the distributors are selling future production at historic premiums with unknown delivery dates. That is where we stand today. All production from Europe is entirely cut off at this point, which compounds the supply shortage dramatically.
...

https://www.texmetals.com/news/demand-shock-the-forces-behind-rising-premiums/

I think he's slightly overstating the issue. If dealers were as desperate as he claims, they would be raising their "buy from the public" prices/premiums too (which they might have in the last day or two since I last checked around, but as of my last survey, it wasn't the case).
 
The last time I updated my spreadsheet on Apmex inventories and premiums was roughly 7 years ago (found here).

I was shocked by what I saw this morning:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - Zero inventory. Few items offered for "pre-sale" on expected future inventory. Premiums ranged from $47.8 to $97.8 over spot
  • 1 ozt gold bars - Zero inventory. Few items offered for "pre-sale" on expected future inventory. Premiums ranged from $50 to $80 over spot
  • 100 ozt silver bars - Zero inventory. Few items offered for "pre-sale" on expected future inventory. Premiums ranged from $4.49 to $5.49 over spot

Unfortunately, my spreadsheet only tracked inventory over time. I have premiums recorded for my last update which was circa January 2014. Premiums now are much higher across the board.
 
More and more refineries, mints and fellow bullion dealers are suspending their operations indefinitely. At BullionStar, we are facing significant operational and stock inventory challenges. There’s an acute shortage for particularly Gold Coins, Silver Bars and Silver Coins. For Gold Bars, some of the private refineries are still open and take orders but have long backlogs.

What does this mean for price premiums?

Due to the paper spot and futures precious metals markets no reflecting the demand and supply for physical precious metals, premiums are high and are fluctuating a lot.
...
In a scenario where the paper spot market doesn’t rally to balance physical demand and supply, physical precious metals will no longer be priced based on the spot market. Bullion dealers will stop pricing metals. Many have already done so by suspending the accepting of orders.

When preferences in the derivatives paper spot and futures markets, which are unbacked or only partially backed by precious metals, differ from supply and demand in the physical market, prices disconnect.

The window for purchasing physical precious metals with fiat currency is quickly closing. At this time, it is still possible to settle physical precious metals purchases in fiat currency with some bullion dealers. At BullionStar, we are still accepting orders for precious metals settled in fiat currencies, and priced based on spot with a premium, but that is subject to change.
...

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/b...recious-metals-with-fiat-currency-is-closing/

A little bit over the top? Or are we there yet?

... However, if its physical silver you wish to purchase, good luck finding it anywhere near the spot price. At two renowned precious metals dealers I surveyed this morning, physical silver is selling at massive premiums to the spot price.

What is known as "junk silver", primarily 90% pure silver coins minted in the U.S. prior to 1965, with no numismatic value, can be had for about $20.62/an ounce ($1475 for a $100 face value bag of junk silver which contains 71.5 ounces of silver). That's a premium of nearly $8, or a whopping 63% above silver's current spot price. One-ounce Silver American Eagle coins have even higher spreads to the spot price, in lower quantities it can be $12/ounce, a 95% premium to spot.

Business is brisk and inventories are low or empty, as consumers clamor for physical metal they can hold in their hand. I've never seen premiums this high, which is an indicator of the fear that is so prevalent. Silver is especially popular because it can be purchased in very small increments. In the doomsday scenario, silver coins dime, quarters, half dollars, silver dollars (and even nickels minted between 1942 and 1945, which contained 35% silver) are small enough that they could be exchanged for smaller goods. That's one of the draws here, but the disconnect between the spot price and physical silver is astounding.
...

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inv...on-playing-out-in-the-silver-markets-15268913

I managed to score a little bit of gold and silver at my LCS over the last couple of days. I've bought metal at lower price points, but I'm not sweating the deals I got. At least I was able to buy some.
 
This is likely to exacerbate the shock to the physical markets:
With the ongoing challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, The Royal Canadian Mint is implementing a temporary suspension of production effective Friday, March 20, for a period of two weeks. This is part of the Mint's on-going efforts to proactively modify how we work, and take necessary measures to safeguard our employees' health and safety.

The Mint remains open for business. You can continue to view and order our products on mint.ca and with our Customer Service Representatives at 1-800-267-1871. However, your parcel shipment will be safely held at the Mint until shipping operations have resumed.

We have a plan to resume modified production in two weeks, which will allow us to reduce the risk to our staff and maintain critical services. We do however anticipate a longer suspension of production and shipping for our Numismatic collectable coins as we prioritize the support of trade and commerce.
...

https://www.mint.ca/store/mint/cust...en_CA&rcmiid=tf|tb|covid19&PageSpeed=noscript

I wonder if other mints are similarly scaling back or halting production.
 
Not sure what descriptor to use for this situation. Fascinating? Intriguing? Devastating?

Looks like the Austrian Mint has also closed temporarily. Having a tough time finding any other mints that have suspended production.

https://www.muenzeoesterreich.at/eng

IMPORTANT CUSTOMER INFORMATION
ATTENTION!
Dear Customers,

As the spread of Covid-19 has led to a lockdown in Austria to stop the virus from spreading further, we would like to inform you that the Austrian Mint shop at Am Heumarkt 1 will be closed as of Monday 16 March until further notice.

Our team is available to attend you from their home work stations and our products can still be ordered online at www.muenzeoesterreich.at . There may, however, be some delay in delivery and we ask you for your kind understanding at this challenging time.

We are extending the pick-up period for all orders until our shop opening hours get back to normal. Details can be found on our website. We are not able to dispatch products that have already been ordered for pick-up. Thank for your understanding at this challenging time.

Please take care and we hope to see you in the Austrian Mint shop in the very near future.
 
Back
Top Bottom