Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

The manipulations to the paper silver market should be coming to an end shortly. CME margin raise yesterday didn't make a dent in the EFP spreads yesterday. Maybe they take effect Monday - we'll see. The short interest manipulations in China on the SFE were flagged and halted by the exchange (regulators). Meanwhile, lease rates are rising again in London signalling inventory is tight again. The physical market is about to impose it's will on the paper markets. $.02

Wholesale premiums have just jumped $2 to $3 to now $4 this morning

It's weird, its the big stuff that seems to be gone first. SD is out of Kilo silver bars. Apmex has a couple at like $10 over spot. Even 100 oz bars are at like $10 over spot. Meanwhile 90% can be had under spot.

Absolutely this is industrial demand, that is what I see from those numbers.

Still, I get offered $4 under spot for my 100 Toz bar I tried to flog at our most recent coin show (yesterday).

Well that is a ~$14 spread on 100oz bar. At ~$90ish that is around 15%. I'd say that's ok considering the recent volatility and uncertainty, esp with the refiners.

Monday morning in silver

Silver drifted up to ~$82 before dropping to $80 this morning. Let's look below the surface (a thread)

EFP spreads​

Current spot price: $80.01

Feb26* = +$1.06 vs -$0.41 Saturday
Mar26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.20
Apr26 = +$0.45 vs +$0.23
*data is 4 hours old

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 data isn't real time nor useful. Mar26 shifted more negative, Apr26 shifted more positive. End of Friday CME margin hike effective today. Might need to check the Feb26 EFP spread again later....

China ​

SGE $87.88 (no VAT)
SFE $93.68

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$7

SFE 1M ozt (31.4t)

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $93.55 (less 10% taxes = $84.19)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $90.01 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$83.53)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $87.41

China > India > LBMA/COMEX

Big ​

SFE ($93.68)
SGE ($87.88)
Retail ($84.19)
MCX ($83.53)
spot ($80.01)
COMEX Mar26 ($79.68)

ICYMI:​

Woa, you glossed over the EFP spreads and kinda missed the big picture. Is that accurate? That would mean the US is in backwardation.

Ok, it looks like the most active contracts are not in backwardation.

Feb26 data was too old to draw any meaningful conclusions/analysis.

Checking right now... with spot @ $82.19, Marketwatch is reporting Feb26 contract 18 minutes behind now (better than 4 hours behind, but still a bit too skewed for meaningful analysis):

Futures:
Feb26 = $80.87
Mar26 = $81.52
Apr26 = $81.67

EFP spreads:
Feb26 = -$1.32
Mar26 = -$0.67
Apr26 = -$0.52

pmbug said:

Checking right now... with spot @ $82.19, Marketwatch is reporting Feb26 contract 18 minutes behind now (better than 4 hours behind, but still a bit too skewed for meaningful analysis):

Futures:
Feb26 = $80.87
Mar26 = $81.52
Apr26 = $81.67

EFP spreads:
Feb26 = -$1.32
Mar26 = -$0.67
Apr26 = -$0.52

Click to expand...

They seem to be closing up further since you posted this.

Yesterday (2-9) in silver

Silver rose from ~$80 to ~$84 during the day, fell down to ~$81 at night and has recovered to $82 this morning. Below the surface, ETFs took a day off for SuperBowl hangover (a thread)

COMEX 2-6​

311K ozt (9.7t) deposited mostly in CNT [R]

4.3M ozt (135.5t) withdrawn from Brinks (814K), CNT (1.8M), JPM (849K), Loomis (600K), MT&B (222K)

10K ozt (0.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT

613K ozt (19.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 390.5M ozt (102.2M [R], 288.2M [E])
Withdraw rate through 1st week of Feb = 3.2M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 102.2M / 1.94M = ~53 (working) days (<3 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Withdrawals over the first week of February (15.2M ozt) were ~40% more than the average weekly rate throughout January (10.9M ozt). The COMEX garden hose is looking more like a fire hose at the moment.

CME Margins​

The CME switched from flat margins to percentage based margins not too long ago. This means that margin requirements for silver contracts scale with increases in the price of silver. Thus, the effects of the CME's recent margin hikes have amplified effects as the price of silver appreciates. Click here for charts and commentary

EFP spreads​

Current spot price: $82.02

Feb26* = -$0.43 vs ??? Yesterday (82.11 @ 4AM)
Mar26 = -$0.22 vs -$0.33 (82.03 @ 7:20AM)
Apr26 = -$0.05 vs +$0.45 (~82.08 @ 7:15AM)
*data is 3.5 hours old

EFP Commentary​

Both Marketwatch and Barchart are reporting the same stale data for the Feb26 contract lately. I guess it is the CME that not providing timely updates these days. I've calculated the EFP spreads using the spot price at each contract's time stamp.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.54% to 0.28% before settling at 0.36%

Available shares still plentiful and ready for plunder. Borrowing activity appears muted yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: no change
JPM: no change

No activity or no reporting? Superbowl hangover day?

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE $86.73 (no VAT)
SFE $91.30

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$5

SFE 155K ozt (4.8t)
SGE 1.4M ozt (43.2t)

SFE posts an inflow!

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $96.11 (less 10% taxes = $86.50)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.65 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.05)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.92

China > India > LBMA/COMEX

Big ​

SFE ($91.30)
SGE ($86.73)
Retail ($86.50)
MCX ($85.05)
spot ($82.02)
COMEX Mar26 ($81.81)

- 1mo lease rate 6.1%
- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 43.2
SFE silver vault - 105.2
SLV London vault - 667.7
PSLV silver vault - 23
COMEX silver stock - 473.7
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
Jan 26-30 = 1,000.77
Jan 19-23 = 374.4
Jan 12-16 = 446.4
Jan 5-9 = 659.7
Dec 29-Jan 2 = 160.6
...

China's SGE reported another outflow for last week. I was anticipating that the SGE might have posted an inflow given:

SGE silver price premium to LBMA spot down from the ~$20 extreme highs of 2 weeks ago to ~$12 last week to ~$5 today. Falling premium would suggest that China is receiving at least some LBMA silver.
For the last two weeks, SGE (spot) price > SFE (futures) price. Today, contango has returned (SFE > SGE). This would suggest that supply is no longer extremely tight (even though that isn't what the vault stock flows are showing).

Perhaps we will see an inflow for the SGE this week (in next week's report).

PSLV posted a very unusual outflow last week - the first I've ever seen since I started watching it daily back in June of last year. Did someone actually redeem shares for physical? It looks like it.

Last week marks the 5th week in a row for the COMEX to drain profusely (~300+ tons) and the draining is accelerating (last week was ~40% higher than the average weekly drain in January). The Feb26 EFP spread was firmly negative all week, so the COMEX draining was expected as bullion banks are likely shipping COMEX silver to London.

SLV saw a massive inflow on Feb 2 and has resumed draining vault stock since. See here for more comments.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Off-topic, but it would be personally fun if you did a pm video based on Space Ghost. I was a fan of the original when I was a kid; then they did a 90s? version where he had a talk show.

If I find some footage that lends itself to an appropriate analogy, I'll do it.

Yesterday (2-10) in silver

Silver dropped from $82 to ~$81 during the day, jumped to ~$84 at night and has risen to just under ~$86 this morning. Below the surface, silver continues flowing (a thread)

Lease rates​

1 month lease rate dropped from ~6.1% to ~2.7%. COMEX fire hose is apparently putting out the LBMA's insufficent inventory fire (for now!).

COMEX 2-9​

169K ozt (5.3t) deposited mostly in Delaware

4.3M ozt (135.7t) withdrawn from Asahi (628K), CNT (678K), JPM (2.1M), Loomis (900K), Delaware (19K)

861K ozt (26.8t) moved from [R] to [E] in JPM (372K), Loomis (106K), Malca-Amit (191K), MT&B (191K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 386.3M ozt (101.4M [R], 284.8M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 3.7M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 101.4M / 2.24M = ~45.2 (working) days (~2.3 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Withdrawals are maintaining a blistering pace now. The run rate for the COMEX fire hose at the current rolling weekly (last 5 days) pace is shrinking. The COMEX will run dry (of liquid free float) around April if this continues.

EFP spreads​

Current spot price: $84.38

Feb26 = -$0.81 vs -$0.43 Yesterday
Mar26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.22
Apr26 = +$0.06 vs -$0.05

EFP Commentary​

Today we get timely data for the Feb26 contract. Feb26 and Mar26 shifted more negative, Apr26 shifted positive. COMEX fire hose will continue flowing.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee jumped from 0.36% to 0.45% before drifting back down to 0.36% again

Available shares still plentiful and ready for plunder. Borrowing activity appears muted for 2nd day in a row.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 900K shares
JPM: 816K ozt (25.4t)

SLV adding stock again and lease rate down indicate COMEX silver is solving LBMA supply crisis (for now).

PSLV​

No change to units
288 ozt (just an adjustment)
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE $89.57 (no VAT)
SFE $94.27

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$6

SFE 602K ozt (18.7t)

SFE posts a 2nd consecutive (and larger) inflow. Is this evidence that China is receiving LBMA silver now?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $98.07 (less 10% taxes = $88.26)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $93.24 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$86.53)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $91.13

China > India > LBMA/COMEX

Big ​

SFE ($94.27)
SGE ($89.57)
Retail ($88.26)
MCX ($86.53)
spot ($84.38)
COMEX Feb26 ($83.57)

- 1mo lease rate2.7%
- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Yesterday (2-11) in silver

Silver dropped from $85+ to ~$83 before closing at $84+ during the day, fell to ~$82 at night, climbed back to $84 and has drifted back lower to ~$82 this morning. Below the surface, COMEX+LBMA are bleeding (a thread)

Lease rates​

1 month lease stabilizing at >2.5%. LBMA silver inventory isn't fully sufficient yet (to maintain normal market function).

COMEX 2-10​

72K ozt (2.2t) deposited in Delaware

4.8M ozt (148.5t) withdrawn from Asahi (611K), CNT (368K), HSBC (110K), JPM (2.5M), Loomis (1M), et al

3.2M ozt (101.3t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (942K), Brinks (414K), CNT (485K), HSBC (20K), JPM (82K), Loomis (166K), MT&B (1.1M), StoneX (46K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 381.5M ozt (98.1M [R], 283.4M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 4.0M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 98.1M / 2.45M = 40 (working) days (2 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Withdrawals continue to accelerate. Looks like the timetable to "Midnight" is shrinking instead of expanding.

EFP spreads​

Current spot price: $82.59

Feb26 = -$0.33 vs -$0.81 Yesterday
Mar26 = -$0.26 vs -$0.33
Apr26 = -$0.17 vs +$0.06

EFP Commentary​

All EFP spreads negative this morning. The spread between the monthly contracts is collapsing (only 7 to 9 cents between each month). The COMEX fire hose should continue flowing.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.36% to 0.39% before drifting back down to 0.37%

Available shares still plentiful and ready for plunder. Borrowing activity appears muted for 3rd day in a row.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 700K shares
JPM: 633K ozt (19.7t)

Second consecutive day for SLV to add shares and vault stock.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE $88.67 (no VAT)
SFE $92.98

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$5

SFE 242K ozt (7.5t)

SFE posts a small, but 3rd consecutive inflow for the first time since mid-December.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $95.00 (less 10% taxes = $85.50)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.01 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$84.45)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.66

The premium between China and India appears to be shrinking.

Big ​

SFE ($92.98)
SGE ($88.67)
Retail ($85.50)
MCX ($84.45)
spot ($82.59)
COMEX Feb26 ($82.26)

- 1mo lease rate2.6%
- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Yesterday (2-12) in silver

Silver crashed from ~$83 to ~$75, rose back to ~$79 at night, and drifted lower to ~$77 this morning. Below the surface, COMEX+SLV are bleeding (a thread)

COMEX 2-11​

Zero deposited

2.3M ozt (72.6t) withdrawn from Asahi (432K), Delaware (130K), JPM (1.1M), Loomis (50K), MT&B (597K)

5.1M ozt (158.8t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (1.4M), CNT (2.3M), MT&B (538K), et al

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 379.2M ozt (93M [R], 286.2M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 4.0M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 93M / 2.45M = 38 (working) days (<2 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's withdrawal was roughly half of Tuesday's total. Is it a trend (withdrawal slowing down) or anomaly? The 5.1M [R] to [E] move is huge. The run rate to "Midnight" shrunk again.

EFP spreads​

Current spot price @07:32: $78.72

Feb26 = -$0.25 vs -$0.33 Yesterday
Mar26 = -$0.20 vs -$0.26
Apr26 = +$0.09 vs -$0.17

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads shifted positive this morning. The spread between Feb26 and Mar26 contracts is just $0.05! With spreads shifting positive, the COMEX fire hose might be reduced to a garden hose.

SLV Share Lending​

9.5M Shares available

Borrow fee held steady at 0.39%

Available shares broke below 7M yesterday as borrowing activity appears to have heated up.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 2.2M shares
JPM: 1.99M ozt (62t)

SLV gives back the gains of the previous two days plus more.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE $86.86 (no VAT)
SFE $89.17

SGE premium to LBMA spot ~$6

SFE 126K ozt (3.9t)

SFE posts a small, but 4th consecutive inflow! China markets close for a week long holiday today.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $91.87 (less 10% taxes = $82.68)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $86.44 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$80.21)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $84.60

After shrinking a bit the day before, the premium between China and India expanded back a bit.

Big ​

SFE ($89.17)
SGE ($86.86)
Retail ($82.68)
MCX ($80.21)
spot ($78.72)
COMEX Feb26 ($78.47)

- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

I like naked shorts also, but it depends on who's wearing them…

For all you naked short lovers.

Yesterday (2-13) in silver

Silver finished about where it started just above $77. Below the surface, COMEX+SLV are still bleeding vault stock (a thread)

COMEX 2-12​

7.9K ozt (8 LGD bars) deposited in CNT

2.8M ozt (87.3t) withdrawn from CNT (353K), Delaware (11K), JPM (2.4M)

130K ozt (4t) moved from [R] to [E] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 376.4M ozt (92.9M [R], 283.5M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 3.7M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 92.9M / 2.22M = ~42 (working) days (2 months + 2 days)

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's withdrawal matched Wednesday's lower rate compared to earlier in the week. The 5 day rolling average dropped so the run rate to "Midnight" has extended a bit.

EFP spreads​

Current spot price @ 07:32: $77.36

Feb26 = ??? vs -$0.25 Yesterday
Mar26 = -$0.09 vs -$0.20
Apr26 = +$0.33 vs +$0.09

EFP Commentary​

CME hasn't published updated "Last" quote for the Feb26 contract since yesterday morning. How odd! The Mar26 and Apr26 contracts shifted more positive. I can only assume the Feb26 contract is still trading within a few cents of the Mar26 contract.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.39% to 0.41%

Seems to be a lot of borrowing activity lately.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 4.7M shares
JPM: 4.26M ozt (132.4t)

SLV drain goes into high gear!

PSLV​

No change to units
311 ozt (less than 1 LGD bar)
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV inventory incurred zero material change this week. PSLV needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

ICYMI:​

Monday morning in silver

China markets on holiday this week. Silver tumbled Sunday night from $77+ to sub $75, then recovered, dipped again and recovered again. Rollercoaster is almost back to where it started at around $77. (a thread)

EFP spreads​

Spot price @ 07:37AM: $77.15

Feb26 = -$0.50 vs ??? Friday (spot @ 2-15 5pm: $75.85)
Mar26 = -$0.01 vs -$0.09 (spot @ 7:20AM: $76.97)
Apr26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.33 (spot @ 6:30AM: $76.85)

EFP Commentary​

CME reporting for Feb26 contract still sucks. The EFP spreads for the Mar26 and Apr26 contracts appear to be tightening towards a positive gravitation point. It appears as if the Feb26 contract EFP spread is still solidly negative.

China ​

Closed! On holiday

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.68 (less 10% taxes = $79.82)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.59 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$77.58)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $82.29

Feb26 SILVERM - COMEX Feb26 = ~$2 (same as Friday)
Retail - Spot = $2.67 (was $3.96 Friday)

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($79.82)
MCX ($77.58)
spot ($77.15)
COMEX Feb26 ($75.35) (Sunday)

ICYMI:​

Tuesday morning in silver

China markets on holiday this week. NYC was closed yesterday. Silver fell from $76+ to $74, then recovered, then dipped to $73, then recovered to $75 (again). Rollercoaster! (a thread)

EFP spreads​

Spot price @ 06:26AM: $75.04

Feb26 = -$0.12 vs -$0.50 Yesterday (spot @ 4:14AM: $74.86)
Mar26 = -$0.04 vs -$0.01 (spot @ 6:16AM: $75.08)
Apr26 = -$0.02 vs +$0.18 (spot @ 6:12AM: $75.07)

EFP Commentary​

The EFP spreads for the 3 front months appear to be tightening towards a slightly negative gravitation point. It appears as if the Feb26 contract EFP spread is now weakly negative.

China ​

Closed! On holiday

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.37 (less 10% taxes = $77.73)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.38 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$75.52)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.15

Feb26 SILVERM - COMEX Feb26 = <$1 (tightening)
Retail - Spot = $2.69 (was $2.67 Yesterday)

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($77.73)
MCX ($75.52)
spot ($75.04)
COMEX Feb26 ($74.74) (2 hours old quote)

ICYMI:​

Even with China closed its still clear there is a VERY large buyer here still standing in and buying. They attacked what 3-5 different times over the day and just about each one was bought in the $72 range.

After all.... someone has been buying contracts and taking Huuuuge Delivery here in the US. Would be nice to know whom but they are still there.

Wheaton Precious Metals Announces Acquisition of Additional Silver Stream on Antamina Through New Partnership with BHP​

Yesterday (2-17) in silver

China markets on holiday this week. Silver fell from ~$75 to $72 then rose overnight to just under $76. Below the surface, COMEX+SLV vault stock are (a thread)

COMEX 2-13​

Zero ozt deposited

4.4M ozt (138.8t) withdrawn from Asahi (459K), Brinks (1M), CNT (674K), JPM (1.9M), Loomis (324K)

19K ozt (0.6t) moved from [E] to [R] in Loomis

764K ozt (23.8t) moved from [R] to [E] mostly in CNT

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 372M ozt (92.2M [R], 279.8M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 3.748M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 92.2M / 2.25M = ~41 (working) days (2 months + 1 days)

COMEX Feb26 ​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,624
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 23,120,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 34,921,152.52

So far, withdrawals are 151% of Feb26 delivery requests! Highly unusual!

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's withdrawal matched Mon & Tue high rate. The 5 day rolling average up slightly. COMEX fire hose running full blast.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price @ 05:28: $75.93

Feb26 = -$0.78 vs -$0.12 Yesterday (spot @ 12:50PM Feb17: $72.78)
Mar26 = -$0.01 vs -$0.04 (spot @ 5:20AM: $75.96)
Apr26 = +$0.32 vs -$0.02 (spot @ 5:14AM: $76.12)

EFP Commentary​

CME reporting for Feb26 contract still awful. EFP spreads for Mar26 holding near zero and Apr26 now positive. With Feb26 EFP spread firmly negative, I would assume COMEX fire hose will remain at full blast. With withdrawals outpacing contract delivery requests, maybe EFP spread doesn't matter?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains at 0.41%

Either there was no borrowing activity yesterday, or IB just isn't reporting it.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: 7.8M shares
JPM: 7M ozt (219.8t)

Highest one day drain of SLV vault stock since October 15! Feb-tober strikes again!

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV sleeping through February (no material change since Feb 5). PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE/SFE closed for the week (Chinese New Year holiday)

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $87.14 (less 10% taxes = $78.43)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $82.06 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$76.15)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $81.04

Feb26 SILVERM - COMEX Feb26 = >$4
Retail - Spot = $2.50

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($78.43)
MCX ($76.15)
spot ($75.93)
COMEX Feb26 ($72.00) (~17 hours old quote)

- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - ??? (No report yet - China on holiday)
SFE silver vault - 3.6
SLV London vault - 149.3
PSLV silver vault - 0.0007 (lol)
COMEX silver stock - 575.2
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA + SGE):
Feb 9-13 = 720.8993
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
Jan 26-30 = 1,000.77
Jan 19-23 = 374.4
...

China's SGE usually reports the vault stock for the previous week about this time, but as they are on Chinese New Year holiday, I don't think they are publishing the report this week. We'll have to wait until next week to see if they posted an inflow.

The SFE posted a small inflow for last week. While small, it stops the bleeding from the previous three weeks of outflows.

PSLV just posted a small 23 ozt net adjustment last week. PSLV appears to be hibernating for what's left of the winter.

Last week marks the 6th week in a row for the COMEX to drain profusely (~300+ tons) and the draining is still accelerating (last week was ~69% higher than the average weekly drain in January). The February drain is very unusual.

SLV started last week with a couple of small inflow days and then reversed the gains on Thursday and drained heavily on Friday.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

In a YouTube video posted today, @RoadtoRoota claims that India Import data for January reports India imported $2B worth of silver in January. He estimates that to be ~20M ozt (622 metric tons) of silver. I have not double checked his work, but assuming that is correct or at least in the ballpark, it adds a lot of color to my previous comments on LBMA vault flow for January. If the ~1,370t of COMEX silver did go to the LBMA, and the LBMA exported similar amounts of silver to China as India, that would account for nearly all of the January COMEX silver.

Edit: That's 622t all sources. That would be just under the import total for last November:

India reportedly (per Metals Focus) imported :
~480 metric tons from the UK (~1,600 tons total all sources) in October
~390 metric tons from the UK (~750 tons total all source) in November
~70 metric tons from the UK (~370 tons total all source) in December

Source video:

Yesterday (2-18) in silver

China markets on holiday this week. Silver rose ~$76 to $77 then rose overnight to ~$79 before drifting back to just under $78. Below the surface, COMEX+SLV vaults still draining like (a thread)

COMEX 2-17​

Zero ozt deposited (again!)

3.2M ozt (98.3t) withdrawn from CNT (912K), HSBC (305K), JPM (1.9M - again!)

3.4M ozt (104.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (587K), Brinks (345K), Loomis (541K), StoneX (1.3M), et al

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 368.8M ozt (88.8M [R], 280M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 3.51M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.8M / 2.1M = ~42 (working) days (2 months + 2 days)

COMEX Feb26 ​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,639
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 23,195,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 38,082,934.46

So far, withdrawals are 164% of Feb26 delivery requests! Highly unusual!

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 3.2M ozt withdrawal was actually ~1M ozt less than Friday's and it brought the 5 day moving average down slightly but enough to extend the run rate estimate by 2 days. COMEX fire hose still running full blast.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price @ 08:20: $77.95

Feb26 = -$0.24 vs -$0.78 Yesterday (spot @ 06:08: $78.60)
Mar26 = -$0.13 vs -$0.01 (spot @ 08:12: $77.79)
Apr26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.32 (spot @ 07:46: $78.17)

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 EFP spread still negative. Mar26 & Apr26 shifted slightly negative. With COMEX withdrawals outpacing contract delivery requests, maybe EFP spread doesn't matter any more?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.41% to 0.46%

Plenty of shares available to plunder, some activity yesterday as the borrowing fee moved around a bit.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:6.4M shares
JPM:5.8M ozt (180.4t)

Day two for extreme SLV vault stock drain. The last time SLV drained this extreme was October when lease rates were ~20%. AFAIK, lease rates aren't that high right now. Very strange!

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV continues sleeping through February (no material change since Feb 5). PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE/SFE closed for the week (Chinese New Year holiday)

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $89.03 (less 10% taxes = $80.13)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $84.38 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$78.30)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $83.16

Feb26 SILVERM - COMEX Feb26 = -$0.06 (margin change working?)
Retail - Spot = $2.18

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($80.13)
COMEX Feb26 ($78.36) (~2 hours old quote)
MCX ($78.30)
spot ($77.95)

- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

Ah — lunar new year. China's out of the picture this week.

Yesterday (2-19) in silver

China markets on holiday this week. Silver bobbed around $78 most of the day and night and rose above $80 this morning. Below the surface, COMEX+SLV vaults still stock (a thread)

COMEX 2-18​

7K ozt deposited in Delaware

1.4M ozt (43.3t) withdrawn from Brinks (590K), CNT (156K), HSBC (640K), et al

5K ozt moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

605K ozt (18.8t) moved from [R] to [E] mostly Loomis (540K) and Asahi (65K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 367.4M ozt (88.2M [R], 279.2M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 2.83M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.2M / 1.7M = ~52 (working) days (2 months + 12 days)

COMEX Feb26 ​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,689
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 23,445,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 39,475,197.92

So far, withdrawals are 168% of Feb26 delivery requests! Highly unusual!

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 1.4M ozt withdrawal was significantly less than recent activity and it brought the 5 day moving average down enough to extend the run rate estimate by 11 days.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price @ 08:50: $80.70

Feb26 = -$0.13 vs -$0.24 Yesterday (spot @ 08:26: $80.60)
Mar26 = +$0.05 vs -$0.13 (spot @ 08:40: $80.38)
Apr26 = +$0.07 vs +$0.18 (spot @ 08:38: $80.53)

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 and Mar26 EFP spreads shifted positive. Feb26 narrowing closer to zero. Will it reflect a slowdown in COMEX withdrawals?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.46% to 0.43%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with minimal activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.35M shares
JPM:34K ozt (1t) in London, 3M ozt (93.3t) in NYC

First time a drawdown in NYC vault stock isn't paired with an inflow in London vault stock.

PSLV​

No change to units
938 ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

Did PSLV add one single, slightly under spec LGD bar? PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

China ​

SGE/SFE closed for the week (Chinese New Year holiday)

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.32 (less 10% taxes = $83.09)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $86.83 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$80.58)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $85.75

Feb26 SILVERM - COMEX Feb26 = +$0.11
Retail - Spot = $2.39

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($83.09)
spot ($80.70)
MCX ($80.58)
COMEX Feb26 ($80.47)

- Feb26 EFP spread still negative
- COMEX(LBMA)
- SLV(LBMA)
- PSLV needs 1.3M ozt

ICYMI:​

The LBMA delivered ZERO silver to China in December

This while:
SGE maintained a premium to LBMA spot
SGE/SFE vault stock went from inflows to outflows

Revising December #s with actual imports/exports:

Total = 25,866 + [895.9] - [134.9] = 26,627 tons
Free Float = 25,866 - 22,385 + [895.9] - [134.9] = 4,242 tons

~~~
I had slightly underestimated LBMA imports and massively overestimated LBMA exports!

With the revision above, my "realistic" estimate for December was under by 458t. The LBMA was over by 1,191t.

~~~
LBMA Dec - LBMA Nov = +631t
UK Imports - UK Exports = +761t

There is some margin of error with the import/export data as it is extrapolated from currency totals and not reported directly by weight, but this indicates ~130t of LBMA silver may have been withdrawn domestically.

Feb 20 Silver Report​

LBMA spot from ~$80 to ~$84.50
COMEX 1.2M ozt
COMEX run rate to ~57 days (est)
Feb26 EFP spread to +$0.21
SLV 951K ozt
India retail - LBMA spot to +$3.93
China closed (holiday)

Details

COMEX 2-19​

Zero deposited

1.2M ozt (36.4t) withdrawn from HSBC (626K), IDSoD (347K), MT&B (192K), et al

Zero ozt moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 366.3M ozt (88.2M [R], 278.1M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 2.6M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.2M / 1.56M = ~57 (working) days (2 months + 17 days)

COMEX Feb26​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,695
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 23,475,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 40,644,747.22

So far, withdrawals are 173% of Feb26 delivery requests! Highly unusual!

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.2M ozt withdrawal brought the 5 day withdrawal moving average down enough to extend the run rate estimate by another 6 days.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price: $84.65

Feb26 = +$0.21 vs -$0.13 Previous (spot @ 16:00: $84.21)
Mar26 = -$0.08 vs +$0.05
Apr26 = +$0.17 vs +$0.07

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 EFP spread was positive (as of last quote)! COMEX withdrawals also appear to be slowing down. I'm guessing this will persist until the Feb26 contract is off the board.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.43% to 0.55%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with minimal activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.05M shares
JPM:951K ozt (29.6t)

SLV bleeding inventory as spot price is rising again. Surely the LBMA has some free float cushion at this point doesn't it?

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (40.7t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $98.43 (less 10% taxes = $88.58)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $86.79 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$80.54)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.33

Retail - Spot = +$3.93

Big ​

SFE ($89.17) (Friday)
SGE ($86.86) (Friday)
Retail ($88.58)
spot ($84.65)
COMEX Feb26 ($84.42)
MCX ($80.54) (one day behind / time zone)

ICYMI:​

SLV is 62% of the total LBMA vaulted ETF silver stock.

SLV was 91% of the total ETF stock drain this past week.

I conclude that SLV is being raided for vault stock.

But why? LBMA doesn't appear to be stressed for inventory presently. Most curious.

Feb 23 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV 686 ozt
SLV 10M ozt
SFE 118K ozt
COMEX 2.2M ozt
COMEX run rate ~59 days (est)
Feb26 EFP spread -$0.33

Price
SFE $100.79
SGE $96.99
Retail $89.44
spot $88.16
COMEX Feb26 $87.90
MCX $83.46

Details

COMEX 2-19​

Zero deposited

2.2M ozt (70.1t) withdrawn from CNT (100K), Delaware (501K), HSBC (627K), JPM (964K)

Zero ozt moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 364M ozt (88.2M [R], 275.8M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 2.49M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.2M / 1.49M = ~59 (working) days (~3 months)

COMEX Feb26​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,731
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 23,655,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 42,898,653.83

So far, withdrawals are 181% of Feb26 delivery requests! That's highly unusual:

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 2.2M ozt withdrawal brought the 5 day withdrawal moving average down slightly, extending the run rate estimate by another 2 days. I wonder if we are going to see the withdrawal rate rise again as China has returned from last week's holiday.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price 08:02: $88.16

Feb26 = -$0.33 vs +$0.21 Previous (spot @ 15:50 Feb23: $88.23)
Mar26 = -$0.19 vs -$0.08 (spot @ 06:52: $87.62)
Apr26 = +$0.32 vs +$0.17 (spot @ 06:44: $87.68)

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 EFP spread back to negative. Mar26 shifting negative and Apr26 shifting positive. Seems to be a bit volatile as we approach the end of the Feb26 contract.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.55% to 0.49%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with minimal activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:11.1M shares
JPM:10M ozt (312.8t)

After shedding 16.8M ozt last week, SLV recovers 10M ozt yesterday. Spot price is rising again. Will SLV continue to recoup what it has lost in February?

PSLV​

55,146 units
686 ozt (0.02t)
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV should have added ~18.8K ozt to match the new shares. PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (41.2t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $99.37 (less 10% taxes = $89.44)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $89.94 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$83.46)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.35

Retail - Spot = +$1.28

China ​

SGE $96.99 (no VAT)
SFE $100.79

SFE (futures) > SGE (spot). SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9

SFE 118K ozt (3.7t)

ICYMI:​

January Silver Import/Export Data

We have started to receive some January silver import/export data. While not complete yet, we can play with the numbers a bit.

New information (LBMA pertinent):
India imported ~305t from UK
India imported ~75t from USA
UK imported 44.9t from Switzerland
UK has not exported >0.5t to China in years

New information (Misc musings):
India imported ~110t from Canada
maybe why PSLV units/ozt ration has not been above .3415 since Jan 9?
India imported ~75t from China
SGE/SFE drained 516.5t in January. Export to India is only ~15% of the total drain.
India imported ~180t from "other" (UAE etc)
UAE etc. silver could be indirect from either UK, USA or China. It's a large fudge factor.

I had estimated a "realistic" January vault stock total for the LBMA using an estimate for the UK's net import/export at zero. I had also estimated that the UK might receive 90% of the COMEX drain for the month (assuming 10% might have been withdrawn by domestic actors). We can now update the formulas with some data (albeit incomplete):

PMBug (original):
LBMA vault stock = 25,225 + (1,370.91 * 0.90) = 26,459t

PMBug (updated):
LBMA vault stock = 25,225 + ([1,370.91-75] * 0.90) - 305 + 44.90 = 26,131t

26,131t is 328t less than my original estimate. I was too generous!

It doesn't look like PSLV is gonna change now. Perhaps there was a Fee that happens once a year and alters the ratio. That's also a reason why SLV has lagged Silver.

Feb 24 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV
SLV8.9M ozt
SFE191K ozt
SGE249K ozt
COMEX3K ozt
COMEX run rate~91d
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.08

Price
SFE $104.26
SGE $100.40
Retail $91.97
spot $90.22
COMEX Mar26 $90.43*
MCX $85.15

Details

LBMA spot ​

Silver dropped from ~$88 to ~$86, recovered to $88 before settling around $87 at the day's close. Silver then popped to $91 late night before drifting back to ~$90 this morning.

COMEX 2-19​

Zero deposited

3K ozt (0.1t) withdrawn from Delaware

1M ozt (31.7t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (10K), Brinks (20K), HSBC (20K), Loomis (5K), StoneX (963K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 364M ozt (87.2M [R], 276.8M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.6M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 87.2M / 958K = ~91 (working) days (~4.5 months)

COMEX Feb26​

Feb26 contract cumulative deliveries = 4,960
Feb26 contract equivalent ozt = 24,800,000
Actual withdrawals in Feb ozt = 42,901,622.73

So far, withdrawals are 173% of Feb26 delivery requests! That's highly unusual:

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 3K ozt withdrawal (lol) brought the 5 day withdrawal moving average down like getting an F on a test in grade school, extending the run rate estimate by another 32 days. China was still closed Monday. Feb26 contract is now off the board.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price 06:06: $90.22

Mar26 = -$0.08 vs -$0.19 Previous (*spot @ 04:58: $90.51)
Apr26 = +$0.21 vs +$0.32 (spot @ 04:56: $90.50)
May26 = +$0.56 (spot @ 04:58: $90.51)

EFP Commentary​

Feb26 off the board. Mar26 EFP spread near zero. Everyone looking at Mar26 contract with anticipation. Here we go...

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.49% to 0.44%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:9.85M shares
JPM:8.9M ozt (277.5t)

After shedding 21.8M ozt over the last two weeks, SLV has recovered 18.9M ozt in the last two days.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (41.2t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $102.19 (less 10% taxes = $91.97)
Feb26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.75 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.15)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $90.85

Retail - Spot = +$1.75

China ​

SGE $100.40 (no VAT)
SFE $104.26

SFE (futures) > SGE (spot). SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10

SFE191K ozt (6t)
SGE249K ozt (7.7t)

ICYMI:​

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 7.7*
SFE silver vault -
SLV London vault - 524.1
PSLV silver vault - 0.03
COMEX silver stock - 247.9
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Feb 16-20 = 764.27
Feb 9-13 = 720.8993
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
Jan 26-30 = 1,000.77
...

* China's SGE vault data is actually from week Feb 9-13, but just got reported today because China's markets were closed last week for Lunar New Year holiday. The inflow is the first weekly net growth since December 19 (8 weeks ago).

PSLV just posted a small 938 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV appears to be hibernating for what's left of the winter.

Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak, but the rate of drain slowed down from previous weeks. This week we transition from the Feb26 contract to the Mar26 contract. We'll see if withdrawals increase again as deliveries on the new contract begin.

SLV bled profusely all last week - including 3M ozt from the NYC vault. However, SLV has recouped all of the vault drain of the last two weeks in the last two days (the start of this week). If I'm correct that the bullion banks are raiding SLV vault stock temporarily to meet delivery demand while waiting for COMEX silver to arrive in London, it would seem that the LBMA's liquid free float was razor thin in the last couple of weeks.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Feb 25 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV
SLV906K ozt
SFE304K ozt
COMEX2.2M ozt
COMEX run rate~103d
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.18

Price
SFE $102.64
SGE $98.22
Retail $89.24
spot $87.58
COMEX Mar26 $87.40
MCX $85.89

Details

LBMA spot ​

Silver bounced around $91 during the day, fell to ~$87 at night, recovered to ~$90 and has fallen again to ~$87 this morning. Silver is a rollercoaster!

COMEX 2-24​

10K ozt (0.3t) deposited in Loomis

2.2M ozt (67.4t) withdrawn from Asahi (1M), HSBC (648K), JPM (374K), StoneX (80K), et al

536K ozt (16.7t) moved from [E] to [R] in Loomis

1.4M ozt (44.3t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (1M), MT&B (348K), et al

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 361.8M ozt (86.3M [R], 275.6M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.4M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 86.3M / 838K = ~103 (working) days (~5 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 2.2M ozt withdrawal brought the 5 day withdrawal moving average down slightly and extended the run rate estimate by another 12 days. The 5 day average withdrawal rate is now the lowest it's been so far this year.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price @ 06:24: $87.58

Mar26 = -$0.18 vs -$0.08 Previous
Apr26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.21
May26 = +$0.43 vs +$0.56

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread (all of them actually) shifting negative. COMEX withdrawals have been diminishing. Will they pick up again as Mar26 EFP spread heads more deeply negative?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.44% to 0.36%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday (again!).

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1M shares
JPM:906K ozt (28.2t)

After adding 18.9M ozt in the last two days, SLV is back to draining vault stock while spot price has been rising. SLV vault stock is the slush fund that supports a very thin LBMA liquid free float:

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (41.2t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $99.15 (less 10% taxes = $89.24)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $92.55 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.89)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.84

Retail - Spot = +$1.66

China ​

SGE $98.22 (no VAT)
SFE $102.64

SFE (futures) > SGE (spot). SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10

SFE304K ozt (9.5t)

ICYMI:​

Feb 26 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV
SLV544K ozt
SFE1.3M ozt
COMEX1.3M ozt
COMEX run rate~105d
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.16

Price
SFE $104.52
SGE $101.56
Retail $94.22
spot $90.42
MCX $90.24
COMEX Mar26 $89.67

Details

LBMA spot ​

Silver bobbed around $87 most of the day, rose to $88 near the close, broke through $90 overnight and has drifted back to ~$89.50 this morning.

COMEX 2-25​

65K ozt (2t) deposited in StoneX [R]

1.3M ozt (39.5t) withdrawn from HSBC (623K), JPM (25K), MT&B (619K), et al

218K ozt (6.8t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 360.6M ozt (86.1M [R], 274.5M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.37M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 86.1M / 823K = ~105 (working) days (~5.25 months)

COMEX Delivery Notices​

Feb26 contract = 5,036 (75 yesterday!)
Mar26 contract = 4,540

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 1.3M ozt withdrawal brought the 5 day withdrawal moving average down slightly and extended the run rate estimate by another 2 days. The 5 day average withdrawal rate is now the lowest it's been so far this year.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price @ 08:14: $90.42

Mar26 = -$0.16 vs -$0.18 Previous (spot @ 07:18: $89.83)
Apr26 = +$0.31 vs +$0.14 (spot @ 08:04: $90.24)
May26 = +$0.57 vs +$0.43

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread holding steady. Apr26 & May26 shifting positive. Mar26 contract has begun delivery notices. Will withdrawals pick up now?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains at 0.36%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 3rd day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:600K shares
JPM:544K ozt (16.9t)

SLV adds back about half of the previous day's drain. There seems to be a tug of war happening with SLV vault stock.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV still needs 1.3M ozt (41.2t) to get back to the historical .3434 ratio.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $104.69 (less 10% taxes = $94.22)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $95.93 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$89.02)
Mar26 [SILVER 30kg] : $91.99
MCX 'spot' : $90.85 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $101.56 (no VAT)
SFE $104.52

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$12

SFE1.3M ozt (39.8t)
SFE has less than 10M ozt left in the vault!

ICYMI:​