Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Yep.

Apr 29 AM Silver Market​

SFE $82.42
SGE $82.29 (~$8 premium to spot)
MCX $74.58
IBJA PM Spot $73.64 (~$1 premium to spot)
Spot $72.91
May26 $72.83 (EFP spread -$0.08)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened $$72 and closed ~$73, rose to almost $74 overnight and has drifted back down to ~$73 this morning. Fairly quiet moves for silver as we transition to a new month.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:50 : $72.91

May26 = -$0.08 vs -$0.09 Previously
Jun26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.21 (spot @ 06:42 : $72.91)
Jul26 = +$0.51 vs +$0.44

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 approaches First Notice Day.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.87 (less 10% taxes = $74.58)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.37 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.58)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.36
IBJA PM spot : $77.52 (less 5% duty = $73.64)

China ​

SGE $82.29(no VAT)
SFE $82.42

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 29 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE92K

COMEX withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~156d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

Details

COMEX 4-27​

ozt

ozt

625K ozt (19.4t) moved from [R] to [E] in JPM (639K), Loomis (15K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (75.7M [R], 239.5M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 810K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 75.7M / 486K = ~156 (working) days(~7.8 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,312
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,560,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61

April withdrawals remain ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 0 ozt net withdrawal actually raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate slightly and the run rate shrunk by 12 days. Feels quiet like the eye of a hurricane right now...

Two days with zero withdrawals correspond to strongly positive EFP spread on the last two days of the Apr26 contract. EFP spread on the May26 contract is slightly negative. Tuesday activity report (due this afternoon) should be interesting.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.42% to 0.30%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM: ozt

Day 2 for zero activity. Everything is quiet in the eye of the hurricane.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

92K ozt (2.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 23,728,790 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 603K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Apr 30 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $82.46
SGE Spot $82.35 (~$10 premium to spot)
MCX Futures $75.41
IBJA PM Spot $74.69 (~$1 premium to spot)
LBMA Spot $73.47
COMEX May26 Futures $73.26 (EFP spread -$0.07)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

End of month options expiry done, May26 First Notice Day begun. Looks like the dip is over. Silver opened ~$$72.50 and closed ~$71, rose back to $72.50 overnight and has risen to ~$73.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 05:58 : $73.47

May26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.08 Previously (spot @ 04:24 : $73.33)
Jun26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.22
Jul26 = +$0.46 vs +$0.51

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 first notice day begins with 4,580 contracts standing for delivery.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.93 (less 10% taxes = $75.54)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.26 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.41)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $78.48
IBJA PM spot : $78.62 (less 5% duty = $74.69)

China ​

SGE $82.35(no VAT)
SFE $82.46

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.11

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 30 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2M
COMEX57K
SFE859K

COMEX withdrawals are ~135% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~450d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

Details

COMEX 4-28​

707K ozt (22t) in HSBC (10K), MT&B (697K)

651K ozt (20.3t) from Asahi (407K), CNT (150K), Delaware (90K), Loomis (5K)

3.8M ozt (119.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (1.8M), Brinks (2M)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (79.5M [R], 235.7M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 294K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.5M / 177K = ~450 (working) days(~22.5 months!)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,313
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 22,283,438.33

April withdrawals remain ~135% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 57K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate greatly and the run rate grew by 294 days. The 3.8M ozt shift from [E] to [R] also had a huge impact. Expect this to correct shortly.

May26 first notice day posts 4,580 delivery notices equivalent to 22.9M ozt. This amount will grow as the month goes on. If May runs like April (withdrawals @ 135% of notices), actual [R] drawdown could run ~half of existing [R] vault stock.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.30% to 0.37%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.2M shares
JPM:2M ozt (61.9t)

London vault stock down to 400,075,099.3 ozt. It hasn't been this low since November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

859K ozt (26.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 24,587,380 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 749K/day deposit!

Run rate =

I'm going to change things up starting tomorrow. I created a new Silver Market Reports sub forum and I'm going to start posting my morning reports there in dedicated threads. I'm not going to post the stuff directly to X any more either. I'm just going to post a note with a link to the forum once the report has been published.

I think the change will make it easier to find/research events from previous days as well as (hopefully) stimulate more conversation.

I'm not sure where to post this but it goes back to the Aug breakout. Don't look now but the Spot Basis spread is going positive pretty large today. Just like we started to see in Aug of 2025 with that SIlver breakout. I also wonder if this is a result of their SLV shenanigans and starting to refill the fund.

What do you mean by "spot basis spread"?

Ya, its the London spot to US futures spread that we were watching. It was up over a buck when I noticed. And it has been positive quite a bit the past few months.



Compared to the break out last Sep. Kinda hard as no dates show up but those two big green bars showed up Aug 28 and Aug 29 2025

I wonder which month they are tracking with SI1!

I watch the spreads for individual contracts daily. Here's this morning's report:

Its the rolling contract and I think they use the most active. Let me see if I can decipher which one right now. its the SI1! ticker...

Yeah it looks like its the July contract right now. So futures price is going above the London spot price.

The EFP spread for the July contract has consistently been around +$0.50 in the mornings since the April contract rolled off the board. If it has jumped above $1, that is a decent move. Maybe it is evidence that the recent margin decrease has enticed investor interest. I wonder if the open interest will rebound above 100K now.

Its getting really noisy now and harder to read. I take it as a sign as evaporating liquidity and problems, but a worse signal for us.

Silver Market Helicopter View

It's looking to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit:

• Zero withdrawals in COMEX three days into the June contract deliveries (no vault stock support for LBMA). This follows a month (May) of record low withdrawals (and likely exports to London/LBMA)
• Shadow inventory support likely dwindling
• SLV ozt/shares bottoming out as London vault stock approaches its local bottom bound (ie. LBMA can't squeeze much more silver vault stock support from this stone)
• 1mo lease rates are breaking correlation with SLV London vault stock flow (SLV drains aren't lowering the 1mo lease rate like they normally do)

I need more popcorn.

so why is silber still below $100?

Because paper is dumb.

Dumb Lies, Damned Lies, and Stats. Its all FAKE

40T of debt ..... (mic drop)

Silver Market Helicopter View

Last week I said that it looked to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit. It's a week later and the spring is still compressed.

COMEX silver withdrawals started ramping up right after I posted last week's comments. lol. However, in the last two days, the withdrawals have been swamped by large deposits. It looks to me like the bullion banks are drawing on the shadow inventory to keep the COMEX silver vault stock at equilibrium.

SLV continues to hold line with London vault stock just above the 400M ozt mark. The mid-month NYC-London 3M ozt vault stock swap is due on Monday (if they continue the current pattern).

As of the last report I saw, silver 1mo lease rates were stubbornly firm around the 0.4% mark irrespective of SLV vault stock flows.

Roughly a month ago, India hiked import duties on silver and then imposed import restrictions. Presumably, this tanked India's demand for foreign silver imports (presumably because it likely encourage smuggling again like the last time India danced to this tune). In the last two days, however, India's (local) IBJA spot has flipped to a premium over LBMA spot in spite of some really hefty 15% import duties/taxes (ie. when measured apples to apples [sans duties/taxes], IBJA spot > LBMA spot). Looks like silver demand has recovered in India. The IBJA spot premium to LBMA should encourage silver imports from London (LBMA) and NYC (COMEX) again.

In another recent development, China's SGE (spot market) premium to the LBMA has fallen over the last week from over $10 down to ~$6 this morning. At the same time, China's SFE (futures market) premium to the SGE has fallen to a discount and the SFE is draining vault stock massively (SGE might be too, but that data is reported weekly, not daily so we have to wait to see). Maybe SFE silver is draining to shore up the SGE vaults. The SGE > SFE price differential would suggest that demand for immediate delivery physical silver is growing in China again.

As China and India both appear to be exhibiting signs of increased demand, there will be increasing stress on the LBMA+COMEX to deliver silver.

Bottom Feeder said:

so why is silber still below $100?

Click to expand...

Why is Gasoline still just $3.50 a gallon when tanks are about dry?

pmbug said:

Silver Market Helicopter View

Last week I said that it looked to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit. It's a week later and the spring is still compressed.

COMEX silver withdrawals started ramping up right after I posted last week's comments. lol. However, in the last two days, the withdrawals have been swamped by large deposits. It looks to me like the bullion banks are drawing on the shadow inventory to keep the COMEX silver vault stock at equilibrium.

SLV continues to hold line with London vault stock just above the 400M ozt mark. The mid-month NYC-London 3M ozt vault stock swap is due on Monday (if they continue the current pattern).

As of the last report I saw, silver 1mo lease rates were stubbornly firm around the 0.4% mark irrespective of SLV vault stock flows.

Roughly a month ago, India hiked import duties on silver and then imposed import restrictions. Presumably, this tanked India's demand for foreign silver imports (presumably because it likely encourage smuggling again like the last time India danced to this tune). In the last two days, however, India's (local) IBJA spot has flipped to a premium over LBMA spot in spite of some really hefty 15% import duties/taxes (ie. when measured apples to apples [sans duties/taxes], IBJA spot > LBMA spot). Looks like silver demand has recovered in India. The IBJA spot premium to LBMA should encourage silver imports from London (LBMA) and NYC (COMEX) again.

In another recent development, China's SGE (spot market) premium to the LBMA has fallen over the last week from over $10 down to ~$6 this morning. At the same time, China's SFE (futures market) premium to the SGE has fallen to a discount and the SFE is draining vault stock massively (SGE might be too, but that data is reported weekly, not daily so we have to wait to see). Maybe SFE silver is draining to shore up the SGE vaults. The SGE > SFE price differential would suggest that demand for immediate delivery physical silver is growing in China again.

As China and India both appear to be exhibiting signs of increased demand, there will be increasing stress on the LBMA+COMEX to deliver silver.

Click to expand...

So we've speculated that the Two US refineries have switched to refining dore from mines somewhere South. Adding this Silver to this shadow inventory.

Do we have any idea How Much output these refineries can output? How much Silver mining output are they actually getting and able to process?

Voodoo said:

Why is Gasoline still just $3.50 a gallon when tanks are about dry?

Click to expand...

Depending on where you live, it might be to my advantage to drive over to your place to fill up, as gas is $5.85 and up around here.

Whole Central USSA is still pretty cheap. Oklahoma is about the lowest usually. With Cushing storage around there and all the refineries to the south. Looks like the entire SE 1/4 of the USA is around there or less. MIght be past time to leave Commiefornia.



SInce I did a screenshot this is from GasBuddy.com

Voodoo said:

Whole Central USSA is still pretty cheap. Oklahoma is about the lowest usually. With Cushing storage around there and all the refineries to the south. Looks like the entire SE 1/4 of the USA is around there or less. MIght be past time to leave Commiefornia.

View attachment 19725

SInce I did a screenshot this is from GasBuddy.com

Click to expand...

i use the gasbuddy app on my phone........i had not seen that map ....thx for posting

3.52$ here in sw mo

Voodoo said:

Do we have any idea How Much output these refineries can output? How much Silver mining output are they actually getting and able to process?

Click to expand...

I had wondered the same but didn't investigate. I did do some back of the envelope estimating though: