Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[pmbug]

Yep.

 

[pmbug]

Apr 29 AM Silver Market​

SFE $82.42
SGE $82.29 (~$8 premium to spot)
MCX $74.58
IBJA PM Spot $73.64 (~$1 premium to spot)
Spot $72.91
May26 $72.83 (EFP spread -$0.08)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened $$72 and closed ~$73, rose to almost $74 overnight and has drifted back down to ~$73 this morning. Fairly quiet moves for silver as we transition to a new month.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:50 : $72.91

May26 = -$0.08 vs -$0.09 Previously
Jun26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.21 (spot @ 06:42 : $72.91)
Jul26 = +$0.51 vs +$0.44

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 approaches First Notice Day.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.87 (less 10% taxes = $74.58)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.37 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.58)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.36
IBJA PM spot : $77.52 (less 5% duty = $73.64)

China ​

SGE $82.29(no VAT)
SFE $82.42

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 29 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE92K

COMEX withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~156d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

Details

COMEX 4-27​

ozt

ozt

625K ozt (19.4t) moved from [R] to [E] in JPM (639K), Loomis (15K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (75.7M [R], 239.5M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 810K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 75.7M / 486K = ~156 (working) days(~7.8 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,312
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,560,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61

April withdrawals remain ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 0 ozt net withdrawal actually raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate slightly and the run rate shrunk by 12 days. Feels quiet like the eye of a hurricane right now...

Two days with zero withdrawals correspond to strongly positive EFP spread on the last two days of the Apr26 contract. EFP spread on the May26 contract is slightly negative. Tuesday activity report (due this afternoon) should be interesting.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.42% to 0.30%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM: ozt

Day 2 for zero activity. Everything is quiet in the eye of the hurricane.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

92K ozt (2.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 23,728,790 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 603K/day deposit!

Run rate =

 

[pmbug]

Apr 30 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $82.46
SGE Spot $82.35 (~$10 premium to spot)
MCX Futures $75.41
IBJA PM Spot $74.69 (~$1 premium to spot)
LBMA Spot $73.47
COMEX May26 Futures $73.26 (EFP spread -$0.07)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

End of month options expiry done, May26 First Notice Day begun. Looks like the dip is over. Silver opened ~$$72.50 and closed ~$71, rose back to $72.50 overnight and has risen to ~$73.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 05:58 : $73.47

May26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.08 Previously (spot @ 04:24 : $73.33)
Jun26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.22
Jul26 = +$0.46 vs +$0.51

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 first notice day begins with 4,580 contracts standing for delivery.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.93 (less 10% taxes = $75.54)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.26 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.41)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $78.48
IBJA PM spot : $78.62 (less 5% duty = $74.69)

China ​

SGE $82.35(no VAT)
SFE $82.46

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.11

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 30 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2M
COMEX57K
SFE859K

COMEX withdrawals are ~135% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~450d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

Details

COMEX 4-28​

707K ozt (22t) in HSBC (10K), MT&B (697K)

651K ozt (20.3t) from Asahi (407K), CNT (150K), Delaware (90K), Loomis (5K)

3.8M ozt (119.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (1.8M), Brinks (2M)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (79.5M [R], 235.7M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 294K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.5M / 177K = ~450 (working) days(~22.5 months!)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,313
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 22,283,438.33

April withdrawals remain ~135% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 57K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate greatly and the run rate grew by 294 days. The 3.8M ozt shift from [E] to [R] also had a huge impact. Expect this to correct shortly.

May26 first notice day posts 4,580 delivery notices equivalent to 22.9M ozt. This amount will grow as the month goes on. If May runs like April (withdrawals @ 135% of notices), actual [R] drawdown could run ~half of existing [R] vault stock.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.30% to 0.37%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.2M shares
JPM:2M ozt (61.9t)

London vault stock down to 400,075,099.3 ozt. It hasn't been this low since November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

859K ozt (26.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 24,587,380 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 749K/day deposit!

Run rate =

 

[pmbug]

I'm going to change things up starting tomorrow. I created a new Silver Market Reports sub forum and I'm going to start posting my morning reports there in dedicated threads. I'm not going to post the stuff directly to X any more either. I'm just going to post a note with a link to the forum once the report has been published.

I think the change will make it easier to find/research events from previous days as well as (hopefully) stimulate more conversation.