Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)
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Apr 29 AM Silver Market
SFE $82.42 SGE $82.29 (~$8 premium to 
spot
)
MCX $74.58 IBJA PM Spot $73.64 (~$1 premium to spot) Spot $72.91
May26 $72.83 (EFP spread -$0.08)Details
LBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened $$72 and closed ~$73, rose to almost $74 overnight and has drifted back down to ~$73 this morning. Fairly quiet moves for silver as we transition to a new month.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 06:50 : $72.91
May26 = -$0.08 vs -$0.09 Previously
Jun26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.21 (spot @ 06:42 : $72.91)
Jul26 = +$0.51 vs +$0.44
EFP Commentary
EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 approaches First Notice Day.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.87 (less 10% taxes = $74.58)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.37 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.58)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.36
IBJA PM spot : $77.52 (less 5% duty = $73.64)
China
SGE $82.29
(no VAT)SFE $82.42
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13
ICYMI:
~~~
Apr 29 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
COMEX
SFE
92KCOMEX withdrawals are ~131%
of Apr26 delivery requestsCOMEX run rate
~156dSFE run rate
SGE run rate
(as of Apr 24)Details
COMEX 4-27
ozt ozt625K ozt (19.4t) moved from [R] to [E] in JPM (639K), Loomis (15K)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (75.7M [R], 239.5M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 810K/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 75.7M / 486K = ~156 (working) days
(~7.8 months)COMEX Apr26
Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,312
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,560,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61
April withdrawals remain ~131%
of Apr26 delivery requests.COMEX Commentary
Monday's 0 ozt net withdrawal actually raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate slightly and the run rate shrunk by 12 days. Feels quiet like the eye of a hurricane right now...
Two days with zero withdrawals correspond to strongly positive EFP spread on the last two days of the Apr26 contract. EFP spread on the May26 contract is slightly negative. Tuesday activity report (due this afternoon) should be interesting.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee fell from 0.42% to 0.30%
Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
sharesJPM:
oztDay 2 for zero activity. Everything is quiet in the eye of the hurricane.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio .3408
PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.SFE Run Rate
92K ozt (2.9t)Remaining Vault Stock = 23,728,790 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 603K/day deposit!
Run rate =
Apr 30 AM Silver Market
SFE Futures $82.46 SGE Spot $82.35 (~$10 premium to spot) MCX Futures $75.41 IBJA PM Spot $74.69 (~$1 premium to spot) LBMA Spot $73.47 COMEX May26 Futures $73.26 (EFP spread -$0.07)Details
LBMA Spot
End of month options expiry done, May26 First Notice Day begun. Looks like the dip is over. Silver opened ~$$72.50 and closed ~$71, rose back to $72.50 overnight and has risen to ~$73.50 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 05:58 : $73.47
May26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.08 Previously (spot @ 04:24 : $73.33)
Jun26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.22
Jul26 = +$0.46 vs +$0.51
EFP Commentary
EFP spreads mostly hold steady as May26 first notice day begins with 4,580 contracts standing for delivery.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.93 (less 10% taxes = $75.54)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.26 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.41)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $78.48
IBJA PM spot : $78.62 (less 5% duty = $74.69)
China
SGE $82.35
(no VAT)SFE $82.46
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.11
ICYMI:
~~~
Apr 30 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
2MCOMEX
57KSFE
859KCOMEX withdrawals are ~135%
of Apr26 delivery requestsCOMEX run rate
~450dSFE run rate
SGE run rate
(as of Apr 24)Details
COMEX 4-28
707K ozt (22t) in HSBC (10K), MT&B (697K)651K ozt (20.3t) from Asahi (407K), CNT (150K), Delaware (90K), Loomis (5K)3.8M ozt (119.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (1.8M), Brinks (2M)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (79.5M [R], 235.7M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 294K/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.5M / 177K = ~450 (working) days
(~22.5 months!)COMEX Apr26
Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,313
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 22,283,438.33
April withdrawals remain ~135%
of Apr26 delivery requests.COMEX Commentary
Tuesday's 57K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA withdrawal rate greatly and the run rate grew by 294 days. The 3.8M ozt shift from [E] to [R] also had a huge impact. Expect this to correct shortly.
May26 first notice day posts 4,580 delivery notices equivalent to 22.9M ozt. This amount will grow as the month goes on. If May runs like April (withdrawals @ 135% of notices), actual [R] drawdown could run ~half of existing [R] vault stock.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rose from 0.30% to 0.37%
Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
2.2M sharesJPM:
2M ozt (61.9t)London vault stock down to 400,075,099.3 ozt. It hasn't been this low since November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio .3408
PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.SFE Run Rate
859K ozt (26.7t)Remaining Vault Stock = 24,587,380 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 749K/day deposit!
Run rate =
I'm going to change things up starting tomorrow. I created a new Silver Market Reports sub forum and I'm going to start posting my morning reports there in dedicated threads. I'm not going to post the stuff directly to X any more either. I'm just going to post a note with a link to the forum once the report has been published.
I think the change will make it easier to find/research events from previous days as well as (hopefully) stimulate more conversation.
I think the change will make it easier to find/research events from previous days as well as (hopefully) stimulate more conversation.
I'm not sure where to post this but it goes back to the Aug breakout. Don't look now but the Spot Basis spread is going positive pretty large today. Just like we started to see in Aug of 2025 with that SIlver breakout. I also wonder if this is a result of their SLV shenanigans and starting to refill the fund.
Ya, its the London spot to US futures spread that we were watching. It was up over a buck when I noticed. And it has been positive quite a bit the past few months.
Compared to the break out last Sep. Kinda hard as no dates show up but those two big green bars showed up Aug 28 and Aug 29 2025
Compared to the break out last Sep. Kinda hard as no dates show up but those two big green bars showed up Aug 28 and Aug 29 2025
I wonder which month they are tracking with SI1!
I watch the spreads for individual contracts daily. Here's this morning's report:
I watch the spreads for individual contracts daily. Here's this morning's report:
Its the rolling contract and I think they use the most active. Let me see if I can decipher which one right now. its the SI1! ticker...
Yeah it looks like its the July contract right now. So futures price is going above the London spot price.
Yeah it looks like its the July contract right now. So futures price is going above the London spot price.
The EFP spread for the July contract has consistently been around +$0.50 in the mornings since the April contract rolled off the board. If it has jumped above $1, that is a decent move. Maybe it is evidence that the recent margin decrease has enticed investor interest. I wonder if the open interest will rebound above 100K now.
Its getting really noisy now and harder to read. I take it as a sign as evaporating liquidity and problems, but a worse signal for us.
Viking
Yellow Jacket
Silver Market Helicopter View
It's looking to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit:
I need more popcorn.
It's looking to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit:
- Zero withdrawals in COMEX three days into the June contract deliveries (no vault stock support for LBMA). This follows a month (May) of record low withdrawals (and likely exports to London/LBMA)
- Shadow inventory support likely dwindling
- SLV ozt/shares bottoming out as London vault stock approaches its local bottom bound (ie. LBMA can't squeeze much more silver vault stock support from this stone)
- 1mo lease rates are breaking correlation with SLV London vault stock flow (SLV drains aren't lowering the 1mo lease rate like they normally do)
I need more popcorn.
so why is silber still below $100?
Dumb Lies, Damned Lies, and Stats. Its all FAKE
Silver Market Helicopter View
Last week I said that it looked to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit. It's a week later and the spring is still compressed.
COMEX silver withdrawals started ramping up right after I posted last week's comments. lol. However, in the last two days, the withdrawals have been swamped by large deposits. It looks to me like the bullion banks are drawing on the shadow inventory to keep the COMEX silver vault stock at equilibrium.
SLV continues to hold line with London vault stock just above the 400M ozt mark. The mid-month NYC-London 3M ozt vault stock swap is due on Monday (if they continue the current pattern).
As of the last report I saw, silver 1mo lease rates were stubbornly firm around the 0.4% mark irrespective of SLV vault stock flows.
Roughly a month ago, India hiked import duties on silver and then imposed import restrictions. Presumably, this tanked India's demand for foreign silver imports (presumably because it likely encourage smuggling again like the last time India danced to this tune). In the last two days, however, India's (local) IBJA spot has flipped to a premium over LBMA spot in spite of some really hefty 15% import duties/taxes (ie. when measured apples to apples [sans duties/taxes], IBJA spot > LBMA spot). Looks like silver demand has recovered in India. The IBJA spot premium to LBMA should encourage silver imports from London (LBMA) and NYC (COMEX) again.
In another recent development, China's SGE (spot market) premium to the LBMA has fallen over the last week from over $10 down to ~$6 this morning. At the same time, China's SFE (futures market) premium to the SGE has fallen to a discount and the SFE is draining vault stock massively (SGE might be too, but that data is reported weekly, not daily so we have to wait to see). Maybe SFE silver is draining to shore up the SGE vaults. The SGE > SFE price differential would suggest that demand for immediate delivery physical silver is growing in China again.
As China and India both appear to be exhibiting signs of increased demand, there will be increasing stress on the LBMA+COMEX to deliver silver.
Last week I said that it looked to me like the spring has just about reached it's coiling limit. It's a week later and the spring is still compressed.
COMEX silver withdrawals started ramping up right after I posted last week's comments. lol. However, in the last two days, the withdrawals have been swamped by large deposits. It looks to me like the bullion banks are drawing on the shadow inventory to keep the COMEX silver vault stock at equilibrium.
SLV continues to hold line with London vault stock just above the 400M ozt mark. The mid-month NYC-London 3M ozt vault stock swap is due on Monday (if they continue the current pattern).
As of the last report I saw, silver 1mo lease rates were stubbornly firm around the 0.4% mark irrespective of SLV vault stock flows.
Roughly a month ago, India hiked import duties on silver and then imposed import restrictions. Presumably, this tanked India's demand for foreign silver imports (presumably because it likely encourage smuggling again like the last time India danced to this tune). In the last two days, however, India's (local) IBJA spot has flipped to a premium over LBMA spot in spite of some really hefty 15% import duties/taxes (ie. when measured apples to apples [sans duties/taxes], IBJA spot > LBMA spot). Looks like silver demand has recovered in India. The IBJA spot premium to LBMA should encourage silver imports from London (LBMA) and NYC (COMEX) again.
In another recent development, China's SGE (spot market) premium to the LBMA has fallen over the last week from over $10 down to ~$6 this morning. At the same time, China's SFE (futures market) premium to the SGE has fallen to a discount and the SFE is draining vault stock massively (SGE might be too, but that data is reported weekly, not daily so we have to wait to see). Maybe SFE silver is draining to shore up the SGE vaults. The SGE > SFE price differential would suggest that demand for immediate delivery physical silver is growing in China again.
As China and India both appear to be exhibiting signs of increased demand, there will be increasing stress on the LBMA+COMEX to deliver silver.
Why is Gasoline still just $3.50 a gallon when tanks are about dry?
So we've speculated that the Two US refineries have switched to refining dore from mines somewhere South. Adding this Silver to this shadow inventory.
Do we have any idea How Much output these refineries can output? How much Silver mining output are they actually getting and able to process?
Depending on where you live, it might be to my advantage to drive over to your place to fill up, as gas is $5.85 and up around here.
Whole Central USSA is still pretty cheap. Oklahoma is about the lowest usually. With Cushing storage around there and all the refineries to the south. Looks like the entire SE 1/4 of the USA is around there or less. MIght be past time to leave Commiefornia.
SInce I did a screenshot this is from GasBuddy.com
SInce I did a screenshot this is from GasBuddy.com
i use the gasbuddy app on my phone........i had not seen that map ....thx for posting
3.52$ here in sw mo
I had wondered the same but didn't investigate. I did do some back of the envelope estimating though:
Even with the India imports shut down. And we noted at the time that was clearly a banker favor. But even still the trading in the COMEX has practically gone to zero. I imagine since Trump told them to get out by Jan they weren't allowed to get back in this year.
As of this morning, India's MCX futures exchange has less than 2 months of both gold and silver vault stock left at the rate of withdrawals over the last five days. Import restrictions have consequences.
China is buying the silver dip. SHFE silver vault stock is rising fast over the last five days. Are they sourcing it from London (LBMA)?
Sure wish we had transparency on what is happening in London. SLV has added massively to it's London vault stock in the last few days as the price of silver has gone down (SLV vault stock, as a proxy for investor interest, usually moves generally in the same direction as spot price).
COMEX July SILVER contract saw ~20% increase in delivery requests yesterday. It looks like someone finally wants some physical silver from the COMEX vaults. Is it headed to the LBMA (for settlement with China et al)? July contract EFP spread doesn't offer bullion banks any arbitrage profit for shipping silver to London presently, so if COMEX drain for LBMA gain is back on the menu, it's going to cost the bullion banks to make it happen.
China is buying the silver dip. SHFE silver vault stock is rising fast over the last five days. Are they sourcing it from London (LBMA)?
Sure wish we had transparency on what is happening in London. SLV has added massively to it's London vault stock in the last few days as the price of silver has gone down (SLV vault stock, as a proxy for investor interest, usually moves generally in the same direction as spot price).
COMEX July SILVER contract saw ~20% increase in delivery requests yesterday. It looks like someone finally wants some physical silver from the COMEX vaults. Is it headed to the LBMA (for settlement with China et al)? July contract EFP spread doesn't offer bullion banks any arbitrage profit for shipping silver to London presently, so if COMEX drain for LBMA gain is back on the menu, it's going to cost the bullion banks to make it happen.
Cutting off India was always just another kick the can situation, it obviously doesn't help alleviate a supply problem.
Not sure I'd seen this graph before but perhaps China was the large importer that disappeared on us for awhile. This apparently crashed back to 200 tons in April. But they had a huge Feb and March
sg.finance.yahoo.com
China’s silver imports jump to record on retail and solar demand
China’s imports of silver surged to an all-time high in March as demand from retail investors and the country’s massive solar industry pushed purchases well above the seasonal average.
sg.finance.yahoo.com
Really, thought that China had always been a decent size importer at least. Well that just improves things really. How was China getting the silver for all their Solar panels otherwise?
Anyway, Looks to me like its getting close again here in July. Assuming that ~80 million oz in the Comex is bottom of the barrel and not really available to them
So they have built up a bit to 95 million ounces in inventory for Registered.
And they still have 2,296 contracts standing for delivery and Increasing so far this month. Thats about 11 million ounces. So we need people to buy up another 1,000 contracts or so this month which is just $275 million.
| TOTAL REGISTERED | 95,534,801.511 | 41,767.900 | 0.000 | 41,767.900 | 159,097.771 | 95,735,667.182 | |
| TOTAL ELIGIBLE | 233,312,436.060 | 271,344.200 | 632,912.780 | -361,568.580 | -159,081.271 | 232,791,786.209 | |
| COMBINED TOTAL | 328,847,237.571 | 313,112.100 | 632,912.780 | -319,800.680 | 16.500 | 328,527,453.391 |
So they have built up a bit to 95 million ounces in inventory for Registered.
And they still have 2,296 contracts standing for delivery and Increasing so far this month. Thats about 11 million ounces. So we need people to buy up another 1,000 contracts or so this month which is just $275 million.