Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

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Same microcosm is happening to platinum now and is a much smaller market. The other thing about silver is it is not as popular overseas because of higher taxes than gold. If the Europeans removed VAT (20%) and/or sales tax on silver it would be a great place to store wealth, but the overall premium keeps many away other than collectors.
 
pmbug said:
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 21 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 20.1 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 75 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 27.3 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Does it seem like silver is in a structural deficit (global demand > global production) to you? Will it make any sense at all if the LBMA reports (on July 8) that they added silver to their vaults in the month of June?
Click to expand...

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics. I suspect these are are Damned Lies, but you can take your pick.
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 34.6 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 65.4 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 115.9 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 40.6 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
PSLV silver vault - added 90.3 metric tons over the month of June (from June 3 to July 1)
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Global silver vaults (excepting LBMA dinosaurs) report increasing their stocks by 899.1 metric tons over the month of June. Does it seem like silver is in a structural deficit (global demand > global production) to you?

LBMA monthly report for June is due on July 8. Will they also claim an increase to their free float (ie. an increase more than the ETF stock in their system)? If they do, where did all these good delivery bars come from?
 
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Update (see post #151 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end June 2025, ... There were also 23,791 tonnes of silver (a 1.8% increase on previous month)... ETF report for 7 July claims ~616 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~148.8 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~163 mtoz reported at the end of May.
  • COMEX - As of July 1, 499.695 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 396.525 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~392.225 mtoz reported at the end of May.
  • SFE/SGE - As of July 2 (SFE) and June 27 (SGE), 2,661,884 kg or ~85.6 mtoz. This compares to ~79.27 mtoz reported at the end of May.

The west has roughly 545.325 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global free float including China is ~630.925 mtoz ( 3.57 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up 424 tonnes (~13.6 mtoz) from end of May. ETFs gained ~27.8 mtoz (~864.7 tonnes).

The COMEX is up ~4.3 mtoz from end of May. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

I started tracking the global vault stock changes every week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The weekly changes throughout June were showing all four major vaulting systems were increasing their holdings of physical silver throughout the month. Given silver's magical metal mystery in previous months, I was half expecting the LBMA to claim an increase in free float silver in June as well in spite of the supposed structural deficit (demand > production), but that did not happen. LBMA free float is reported to have shrunk ~14.2 mtoz (~441.7 tonnes), slightly exceeding the net increases to the COMEX and SGE/SFE for the month.

As a reminder, per the latest COT report, as of June 24, there were 152,545 short contracts on the COMEX representing the sale of 762,725,000 troy ounces (23,723.4 metric tons) of silver. COMEX has sold ~131.8 mtoz (~4099 tonnes) more paper silver than currently exists as free float in global vaults.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://harveyorganblog.com/2025/07...adium-showing-no-gain-remaining-at-1099-60-g/
SGE/SFE:

LBMA ETFs:
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 3.3 metric tons
SFE silver vault - adds 44.1 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 2.6 metric tons
PSLV silver vault - no change
COMEX silver stock - loses 43.2 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Last week it looks like global silver flows tightened up considerably. Net change (less whatever happened in LBMA vaults) was almost zero! Is silver flowing from COMEX to China (SFE)?
 


His number is a bit higher than HUGO's number, but HUGO showed his work, so I'm going with HUGO.
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - adds 7.3 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 36.2 metric tons
SLV London vault - loses 110.2 metric tons (huge losses on Thu & Fri)
PSLV silver vault - no change
COMEX silver stock - loses 52.3 metric tons (lost a lot Mon-Thu and recovered some Fri)
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

Last week was the first global net outflow in many weeks - probably since February given the magic mystery in the monthly numbers since March, but I have only been paying close attention to these weekly numbers since the start of June.
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - loses 15.2 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 92.5 metric tons
SLV London vault - loses 49.4 metric tons (they regained it + the previous week's loss all back on Monday this week)
PSLV silver vault - adds 80.9 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 31.8 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 14-18 = -44.4 metric tons
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

The bulk of last week's inventory stock gain was in PSLV which is actually a loss for global free float as that metal isn't available for settling deliveries on the COMEX or LBMA OTC markets. I think PSLV still needs to acquire ~9 metric tons to back new units added recently.

COMEX inventory seems to be stable over the last 4 weeks within a narrow band, SFE/SGE is losing metal in spite of premium prices that should encourage an arbitrage trade/flow. COMEX silver July contract currently has 9,198 contracts (1430.4 metric tons) standing for delivery. That represents ~10% of it's current inventory (~25% of the registered category). Those deliveries should begin in a week or two?

SLV's loss - the second week in a row - would presumably be a net gain for global free float, but Monday this week saw a massive inflow negating this week's and last week's loss. All of SLV's inventory fluctuations occur in JPM's London vaults (in the LBMA system). One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide any reporting/transparency of their operations like every other market in the world.
 
With the horrendous accounting these days and all the ETF shenanigans... SLV inventory could mean just about whatever they want. Not much more than numbers on a ledger.
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - adds 56.4 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 23.8 metric tons
SLV London vault - adds 521.4 metric tons
PSLV silver vault - adds 0.1 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 126 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 21-25 = +680.1 metric tons
July 14-18 = -44.4 metric tons
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

The bulk of last week's inventory stock gain was in SLV which is highly likely to just be an accounting ledger change in the LBMA vault system. It's not necessarily new metal flowing into the LBMA vaults - it's just SLV gobbling up the LBMA's free float (available) silver already in the vault system.

I think PSLV still needs to acquire ~8.9 metric tons to back new units added recently. There seems to be a lot of shorting of PSLV units currently. Is the PSLV inventory being raided again?

The COMEX July contract has completed. I presume that means we should start seeing outflows from the registered category as the 9,335 contracts standing for delivery (representing roughly 25% of the existing COMEX registered vault supply) start to receive their metal.

The LBMA's magical monthly report is due on Thursday, August 7. One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.
 
I mean the LBMA said Gold delivery times got kicked to months and blamed it on being heavy. I think that's about as chaotic as I imagine it could get for a metals association.
 
I know that i"ve seen this elsewhere but from Moneco64's recent interview.

1754172360474.png

And it looks like they are already on track in Aug. In the first three days they've already stood for 20,126 contracts in Aug.
 
That's for gold only. This chart has both gold and silver:



August 2024 for silver was 1035 contracts. In the first 3 days, August 2025 for silver is at 1,064 contracts.
 
pmbug said:
Macquarie forecasts a structural deficit in silver of around 100M to 150M troy ounces or somewhere between 3,000 and 4,500 metric tons per year for the next 5 years.

The total global free float silver stock across the COMEX, SFE/SGE and LBMA at end June/start July was ~630.925 mtoz. If that projection holds (and if dinosaurs can be trusted/believed), the major trading exchanges run out of available silver in four to five years. If certain dinosaurs are misreporting their vaulted silver stock (again), it could be much sooner.
Click to expand...



Katusa Research said:
High-efficiency solar cells are about to eat half the world’s silver.

China’s new TOPCon (“tunnel-oxide” solar) panels jumped to 60 % market share in 2024

And use 2× the silver of legacy designs.

Push that to 84 % worldwide plus 827 GW of new installs and demand soars to 557 Moz—

54 % of annual supply.
Click to expand...

 
Voodoo said:
I know that i"ve seen this elsewhere but from Moneco64's recent interview.

View attachment 16847

And it looks like they are already on track in Aug. In the first three days they've already stood for 20,126 contracts in Aug.
Click to expand...

It's pretty clear to me that one thing is important takeaway. This is NOT accidental. It clearly is a regular planed thing. To have somebody taking delivery consistently about 3x last year is a planned thing. I just wish we could figure out Who is taking all of this Gold.

Quick calculations say that is over 25 million oz of Gold this year already or $80 Billion dollars.... That's a LOTTA mullah.
 
The future is both High Tech and electronic. Both on a massive scale , no matter the metric applied. Quit frucking with me Ag.

So why the Bearish trends like we just had. You'd think we'd be all out on the streets, running with the Bull's like a bunch of arseholes.

I never expected these huge price increases like some predict, like $100 by the end of the year. But I do expect a steady march to the drum beats of making "me" money. As in $50 futures by the end of 2025. And its not just me. PSLV is flying off the shelves thanks to all you greedy little capitalists like me that are tired of the "dont think of it as an investment" blather. Of course we think of it as an "investment", or we wouldn't be spending our gambling, 'hoing, and weed money for it.

I spent $2.5 K on the last dip. Dagnabbit start making money for me.
 
Voodoo said:
It's pretty clear to me that one thing is important takeaway. This is NOT accidental. It clearly is a regular planed thing. To have somebody taking delivery consistently about 3x last year is a planned thing. I just wish we could figure out Who is taking all of this Gold.

Quick calculations say that is over 25 million oz of Gold this year already or $80 Billion dollars.... That's a LOTTA mullah.
Click to expand...
It's Searcher taking delivery of all the gold.
 
Last week in silver:

SGE silver vault - adds 0.5 metric tons
SFE silver vault - loses 3.3 metric tons
SLV London vault - loses 173.8 metric tons
PSLV silver vault - adds 3.1 metric tons
COMEX silver stock - adds 152.6 metric tons
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
July 28-Aug 1 = -20.9 metric tons
July 21-25 = +680.1 metric tons
July 14-18 = -44.4 metric tons
July 7-11 = -191.4 metric tons
June 30-July 4 = +0.2 metric tons
June 23-27 = +187.3 metric tons
June 16-20 = +101.4 metric tons
June 9-13 = +124.09 metric tons
June 2-6 = +396 metric tons

The bulk of last week's inventory stock loss was in SLV which is highly likely to just be an accounting ledger change in the LBMA vault system, but it could also be that some COMEX actors (ie. bullion banks) raided the SLV silver stock to add silver to the COMEX vaults.

I think PSLV still needs to acquire ~5.8 metric tons to back new units added recently, but their vault stock has been steady/flat since Monday.

The COMEX August contract has begun and it's already seeing ~50% more contracts standing for delivery versus August 2024. I'm still not seeing the drawdowns in COMEX registered vault to reflect the massive wave of contracts standing for delivery from last month or this month. Are they being cash settled or is the delivery process just that cocked up?

The LBMA's magical monthly report is due tomorrow. One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.
 
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A word of caution about silver industrial demand (counterpoint to post #176 above)...

China's biggest solar firms fired nearly one-third of their workforces last year, a Reuters analysis of company filings shows, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses. Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and Tongwei collectively shed some 87,000 staff, or 31% of their workforces on average last year, according to a Reuters review of employment figures in public filings.

The job cuts illustrate the pain from the vicious price wars being fought across Chinese industries, including solar and electric vehicles, as China grapples with massive overcapacity and dismal demand (which has prompted China to dump its exports into any country that will accept them). As a frame of reference, the world produces twice as many solar panels each year as it uses, with most of them manufactured in China.
...
Click to expand...

More:

China's Solar Industry Quietly Fired A Third Of Its Workers | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
Update with fancy new format - all values in metric tons (see post #165 for last month):

Global Vault Stock - July 2025​

Market​
This month​
Last month​
Difference​
LBMA (total)
24,199​
23,791​
408​
London vaulted ETFs
19,556.17​
19,162.38​
393.79​
LBMA-ETFs (free float)
4,642.83​
4,628.62​
14.21​
COMEX
15,758.94​
15,589.38​
169.56​
SLV NYC Vault
3,209.14​
3,209.14​
0.00​
COMEX-SLV (free float)
12,549.80​
12,380.24​
169.56​
SFE/SGE
2,552.902​
2,661.884​
-108.982​
PSLV
6,044.108​
5,959.972​
84.136​

The west has roughly 17,192.63 metric tons vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global free float including China (SFE/SGE) is 19,745.532 metric tons ( 121.572 metric tons more than at end of last month). PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in free float totals.

In the month of July, the COMEX, SGE, SLV and PSLV all added to their silver vault stock. The SFE silver vaults were drained a bit more than twice what the SGE gained.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations.
LBMA said:
These figures provide an important insight into London's ability to underpin the physical OTC market.
Click to expand...
:lmao:

It's very surprising to see total global free float silver vault stock increase over the month of July considering there is supposedly a structural deficit (global demand > global production) in the silver market due to industrial demand. Given silver's magical metal mystery in previous months and the wild daily swings in SLV's London vault stock, one has to wonder about the veracity of the LBMA reporting.

Per the latest COT report (data for July 29), there were 147,210 short contracts on the COMEX representing the sale of 736,050,000 troy ounces or 22,893.71 metric tons of silver. COMEX has a total short (sold) position that is 3,148.178 metric tons greater than what currently exists as free float in global vaults. This excess of global free float is down by ~951 metric tons or nearly 23.2% from last month. While not every contract stands for physical delivery, 2025 is seeing about 50% more contracts standing for delivery than 2024 recorded.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs (some of HUGO's numbers are converted with rounding errors - I used the more precise conversions for my chart):

COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
 
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