Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[CiscoKid]

Is it just me or is anyone else concerned with the speed in which silver is rising?

 

[pmbug]

We do not have normal a normal market with silver. The price is not rising because of investment trading/demand. We are seeing the paper derivative markets breaking down and the beginnings of true price discover for physical silver. Silver is going to squeeze higher before it stabilizes.

 

[Voodoo]

Is it just me or is anyone else concerned with the speed in which silver is rising?

Speed... lol we just started walking now... You better buckle up butter cup.

 

[Argentsum]

The Silver manias of 1980 and 2011 both had a point where the charts show the price action going nearly straight up. This did not last long, and the price drops were nearly as steep as the previous rises.

Maybe this time will be different.

For myself, every time silver goes up $10, I take roughly 10% off the table as cash.

...and everytime silver goes down by $10, I increase my holdings in similar fashion.

 

[Voodoo]

I know this is a dangerous statement, but this time I do believe is different, very VERY different.

 

[pmbug]

Today (10-16) in silver

Today saw silver spot climb to a new high at $54. Let's investigate what played out below the surface...

PSLV

Today PSLV added zero units to the trust and 579,580 ozt to the vault. PSLV just continues to increase their vault stock. Every 1,000 ozt of silver that PSLV adds to their vaults is a London Good Delivery silver bar that is not available to the COMEX or LBMA to settle contracts.

COMEX

COMEX silver stock report for Wednesday (COMEX reports activity for the previous working day) showed 1.5M ozt (~46.9 metric tons) withdrawn from the Asahi vaults, but only ~548.2K ozt (~17 metric tons) withdrawn overall (net). There were still heavy withdrawals of 3M ozt, but there was also a heavy deposit of ~2.5M ozt. Additionally, Asahi moved ~392K ozt (~12.2 metric tons) from registered to eligible. It seems the Asahi vault is still bleeding its stock (none of the day's deposits were in Asahi). I singled out the action in the Asahi vault because they are listed by the LBMA as a Good Delivery Refinery for silver and I assume that means they can deliver silver back to London with fewer logistical challenges (red tape, costs, etc.) than other actors.

JPM listed zero activity of any kind. This is the third day in a row that JPM reports zero outflow, so maybe they are done sending metal to London? JPM is the custodian for Blackrock's SLV and manages changes to SLV inventory in their London (LBMA) vault. I assume that JPM also can deliver silver back to London with fewer logistical challenges (red tape, costs, etc.) than other actors.

Overall, 1.1M ozt (~35.7 metric tons) of silver was moved from registered to eligible on Wednesday. It seems the COMEX is not quite done shedding vault stock.

SLV

My "canary in the silver mine" might be dead. Today JPM reported zero activity in the bar stock report (no additions or withdrawals), Blackrock reported zero activity with shares (none created or redeemed) and their were zero shares available for borrowing since 7:30AM EDT. Absolutely no activity was reported. I'm wondering if they just went dark on reporting activity?

The borrowing fee remains at 16.22% and the spread between the rebate fee (what brokers pay shareholders to borrow shares) and the borrow fee (what brokers charge to lend shares) has remained steady at 4.1%.

SFE/SGE

The Oct 16 trading report from this morning indicated the SGE/SFE prices for silver moving up with, but still lagging (at a discount to) the LBMA/COMEX. The SFE silver vault continues to bleed out inventory - shedding another 1.5M ozt (~48.1 metric tons) today.

 

[nickndfl]

It appears the PM markets are turning into OTC markets and we are trying to find price discovery with silver first. It's much smaller than the gold market.

 

[pmbug]

 

[Cigarlover]

The only shortages I am aware of are 1000 oz bars in London and 2025 silver eagles in the US. The US mint only producing 10 million is pathetic.
Refinery capacity is an issue but eventually it will get solved.
SD bullion and Miles Franklin can both probably deliver 20-40 million in silver if you really wanted it. So 40-80 million total if you have deep pockets and looking to spend. Add in the over priced Apmex and you could probably do another 30 million minimum in silver buys. If the entire US population woke up and decided to buy it would be a problem but so far they are all still asleep and most are broke anyway so cant buy.

 

[Voodoo]

RED Alert.... Mr Slammy has caused Actual Backwardation on the COMEX.



Note that the Oct Contract for immediate delivery is now ABOVE even the most traded contract out in Dec. Looks like it lagged a bit and now is out again. But its real close.

 

[Voodoo]

OI also expanded Oct 16 in Silver. They made 64 deliveries and OI went up 239 contracts to 322.

 

[Cigarlover]

Trading closer to the 20 day now. Have to see if 4000 and 50 hold. If not then 3500 and 45 or wherever the 50 day is.

 

[pmbug]

Today (10-17) in silver

Today saw silver spot fall as the CME raised margins 8.5%. Let's investigate what played out below the surface...

PSLV

Today PSLV added zero units to the trust and 242 ozt to the vault (which is likely just a correction to yesterday's inflow). PSLV has been very active of late, but took a rest day today. Every 1,000 ozt of silver that PSLV adds to their vaults is a London Good Delivery silver bar that is not available to the COMEX or LBMA to settle contracts.

COMEX

COMEX silver stock report for Thursday (COMEX reports activity for the previous working day) showed 295K ozt (~9.2 metric tons) withdrawn from the Asahi vaults, and ~2.7M ozt (~84.1 metric tons) withdrawn overall. Unlike Wednesday, there were no deposits today. For the first time in many days, Asahi had no silver move from registered to eligible. I singled out the action in the Asahi vault because they are listed by the LBMA as a Good Delivery Refinery for silver and I assume that means they can deliver silver back to London with fewer logistical challenges (red tape, costs, etc.) than other actors.

JPM saw 367.1K ozt (~11.4 metric tons) withdrawn and, like Asahi, no silver moved from registered to eligible. This ends the three day inactive streak. JPM is the custodian for Blackrock's SLV and manages changes to SLV inventory in their London (LBMA) vault. I assume that JPM also can deliver silver back to London with fewer logistical challenges (red tape, costs, etc.) than other actors.

Overall, 753.6K ozt (~23.4 metric tons) of silver was moved from registered to eligible on Thursday. It seems the COMEX is not quite done shedding vault stock.

SLV

My "canary in the silver mine" came back from the dead. Today JPM reported adding 2.4M ozt (74.8 metric tons) to the silver stock while Blackrock reported adding 2.65M shares.

Even though the number of shares available to borrow was plentiful most of the day, the borrowing fee spiked to a high of 20.79%! It has remained near 20% since. The spread between the rebate fee (what brokers pay shareholders to borrow shares) and the borrow fee (what brokers charge to lend shares) has remained steady at 4.1%.

SFE/SGE

The Oct 17 trading report from this morning indicated the SGE/SFE prices for silver moving up with, but still lagging (at a discount to) the LBMA/COMEX. The SFE silver vault continues to bleed out inventory - shedding another 2M ozt (~62.1 metric tons) today. China is going to need to bid silver up higher if they want silver to flow in from the West.

 

[Voodoo]

The intuitive Woo world think something big is gonna happen this weekend. No idea there, I'm a real novice.

 

[pmbug]

India will need as much as $21 trillion to achieve its climate goals and lift its population out of poverty, according to a draft government plan seen by Bloomberg.
...
By 2070, ... energy supply will grow from 870 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2020 to 2250 mtoe in 2070 under a net zero scenario.

The government now sees renewables supplying 65% of its total energy mix by 2070, with nuclear accounting for 11%. Coal would provide just 4%, down from 49% in 2020.
...
... Regardless of climate targets, the country is expected to build out a huge amount of solar and wind power, alongside batteries. “India will rely heavily on electrification,” he said.
...

https://archive.ph/bxpxr