Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[68camaro]

Unless I screwed up the calculations, the PSLV premium seems to have dropped back to the more typical 3.5% range.

 

[68camaro]

Unless I screwed up the calculations, the PSLV premium seems to have dropped back to the more typical 3.5% range, rather a discount - negative premium.

 

[pmbug]

Per Sprott:

 

[pmbug]

Feb 27 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV
SLV3.3M ozt
COMEX306K ozt
COMEX run rate~124d
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.03

Details

LBMA spot ​

Silver popped from the $89.50 open to $92, then $94 and settled at ~$93.64. Conflict with Iran started after the market close. Will gold and silver pop on the Sun night/Mon morning open?

COMEX 2-26​

1.1M ozt (36t) deposited in Asahi [R] (824K), StoneX [R] (307K), et al

1.5M ozt (45.5t) withdrawn from CNT (485K), JPM (648K), MT&B (193K), et al

1.2M ozt (36.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (111K), Delaware (86K), Loomis (964K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 360.3M ozt (88.4M [R], 271.9M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.18M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.4M / 711K = ~124 (working) days (~6.25 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.5M ozt withdrawal was balanced by 1.1M in deposits - the first significant (>1M ozt) deposit since Jan 30. The net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and extended the run rate estimate by another 19 days.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price $93.81

Mar26 = -$0.03 vs -$0.16 Previous (spot @ 15:30: $93.86)
Apr26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.31
May26 = +$0.53 vs +$0.57

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread almost zero! COMEX daily withdrawals now less than 1.5M/day since Feb 18. Will COMEX withdrawals run heavy without a negative EFP spread on Mar26 contract?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises from 0.36% to 0.39%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 4th day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.7M shares
JPM:3.3M ozt (104.2t)

SLV vault stock raiding is back. Huge drop in shares and ozt on a day where spot price rose ~7%.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's units/ozt ratio was ~.3434 up until the end of November. It got pretty volatile for a while - bouncing up and down until mid-January. Since then it has been pretty stable lately around .3413. It's unclear to me if this is the new normal or if PSLV will acquire more silver to raise the ratio back to the historical levels.

ICYMI:​

 

[Voodoo]

Now you are starting to see how All these ETF's are actually being used by Market Makers.

 

[pmbug]

It's getting egregious

 

[Voodoo]

Desperate times... desperate measures.

 

[pmbug]

1mo silver lease rate up to 2.15% now.

Even with APs (bullion banks) raiding SLV for vault stock, It appears that stress is building with the LBMA's liquid free float silver (higher lease rates generally indicate supply stress).

Either the COMEX opens the floodgates and increases the withdrawals/exports to London, or the LBMA is going to have problems very soon (sometime in March I'm guessing).

 

[pmbug]

Mar 1 Silver Report

Vaults
SFE91.3K ozt
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.12

Price
SFE $110.45
SGE $108.49
Retail $95.84
MCX $94.51
Spot $94.32
COMEX Mar26 $94.12

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Silver popped from the ~$93.60 Sun night open to $96, fell back to ~$92.50, rose back to ~$96 and has drifted down to ~$94.50. Looks like a war trade vs. Mr. Slammy battle.

Lease Rates​

The 1 month lease rate has been steadily climbing for the last week which signals increasing tightness in the LBMA liquid free float vault stock.

EFP spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 08:30: $94.32

Mar26 = -$0.12 vs -$0.03 Previous (spot @ 08:12: $94.24)
Apr26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.18 (spot @ 08:20: $94.44)
May26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.53

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread shifted more negative. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads tightened. I would expect COMEX withdrawals to increase again given the rising lease rates.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $106.49 (less 10% taxes = $95.84)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $101.84 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$94.51)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $99.69
MCX 'spot' : $98.33 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $108.49 (no VAT)
SFE $110.45

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$13

SFE91.3K ozt (2.8t)
Very small inflow, but it was an inflow

ICYMI:​