Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

[68camaro]

Unless I screwed up the calculations, the PSLV premium seems to have dropped back to the more typical 3.5% range.

 

[68camaro]

Unless I screwed up the calculations, the PSLV premium seems to have dropped back to the more typical 3.5% range, rather a discount - negative premium.

 

[pmbug]

Per Sprott:

 

[pmbug]

Feb 27 Silver Report

Vaults
PSLV
SLV3.3M ozt
COMEX306K ozt
COMEX run rate~124d
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.03

Details

LBMA spot ​

Silver popped from the $89.50 open to $92, then $94 and settled at ~$93.64. Conflict with Iran started after the market close. Will gold and silver pop on the Sun night/Mon morning open?

COMEX 2-26​

1.1M ozt (36t) deposited in Asahi [R] (824K), StoneX [R] (307K), et al

1.5M ozt (45.5t) withdrawn from CNT (485K), JPM (648K), MT&B (193K), et al

1.2M ozt (36.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (111K), Delaware (86K), Loomis (964K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 360.3M ozt (88.4M [R], 271.9M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.18M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.4M / 711K = ~124 (working) days (~6.25 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.5M ozt withdrawal was balanced by 1.1M in deposits - the first significant (>1M ozt) deposit since Jan 30. The net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and extended the run rate estimate by another 19 days.

EFP spreads (EST)​

Current spot price $93.81

Mar26 = -$0.03 vs -$0.16 Previous (spot @ 15:30: $93.86)
Apr26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.31
May26 = +$0.53 vs +$0.57

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread almost zero! COMEX daily withdrawals now less than 1.5M/day since Feb 18. Will COMEX withdrawals run heavy without a negative EFP spread on Mar26 contract?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises from 0.36% to 0.39%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 4th day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.7M shares
JPM:3.3M ozt (104.2t)

SLV vault stock raiding is back. Huge drop in shares and ozt on a day where spot price rose ~7%.

PSLV​

No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

PSLV's units/ozt ratio was ~.3434 up until the end of November. It got pretty volatile for a while - bouncing up and down until mid-January. Since then it has been pretty stable lately around .3413. It's unclear to me if this is the new normal or if PSLV will acquire more silver to raise the ratio back to the historical levels.

ICYMI:​

 

[Voodoo]

Now you are starting to see how All these ETF's are actually being used by Market Makers.

 

[pmbug]

It's getting egregious

 

[Voodoo]

Desperate times... desperate measures.

 

[pmbug]

1mo silver lease rate up to 2.15% now.

Even with APs (bullion banks) raiding SLV for vault stock, It appears that stress is building with the LBMA's liquid free float silver (higher lease rates generally indicate supply stress).

Either the COMEX opens the floodgates and increases the withdrawals/exports to London, or the LBMA is going to have problems very soon (sometime in March I'm guessing).

 

[pmbug]

Mar 1 Silver Report

Vaults
SFE91.3K ozt
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.12

Price
SFE $110.45
SGE $108.49
Retail $95.84
MCX $94.51
Spot $94.32
COMEX Mar26 $94.12

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Silver popped from the ~$93.60 Sun night open to $96, fell back to ~$92.50, rose back to ~$96 and has drifted down to ~$94.50. Looks like a war trade vs. Mr. Slammy battle.

Lease Rates​

The 1 month lease rate has been steadily climbing for the last week which signals increasing tightness in the LBMA liquid free float vault stock.

EFP spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 08:30: $94.32

Mar26 = -$0.12 vs -$0.03 Previous (spot @ 08:12: $94.24)
Apr26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.18 (spot @ 08:20: $94.44)
May26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.53

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread shifted more negative. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads tightened. I would expect COMEX withdrawals to increase again given the rising lease rates.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $106.49 (less 10% taxes = $95.84)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $101.84 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$94.51)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $99.69
MCX 'spot' : $98.33 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $108.49 (no VAT)
SFE $110.45

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$13

SFE91.3K ozt (2.8t)
Very small inflow, but it was an inflow

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

Estimates for the LBMA's end of February silver vault stock (in metric tons):

LBMA official
Vault Stock = 29,109
Free Float = 7,913

PMBug "realistic"
Vault Stock = 27,511
Free Float = 6,315

I'm estimating the LBMA's *liquid* free float (6,315t total FF - 3421t illiquid FF) for silver to have an upper bound limit in the neighborhood of 2,894t. At at spot price of $100/ozt, that's ~$9.3B. That said, see the considerations mentioned at the end of this post for important context.

Details

The LBMA is due to report their end of February silver stock report on Friday, Mar 6. I fully expect them to report another overstated number. I estimate the LBMA's vault stock using known data for comparison.

Old Formula​

The last few months, I used a simple formula for estimating/forecasting the LBMA's vault stock and free float:

X = A - B + (C * D) - E - F

X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = ETF vault stock (current)
C = COMEX withdrawn for current month
D = An estimated percentage of COMEX withdrawn that was shipped to London
E = Export to China (SGE/SFE) (est for current month)
F = Export to India (est for current month)

Last month, I was way off on 'F' and after closer examination of the import/export data from previous months, I've realized this formula/method needs some improvement. So, I built a spreadsheet using past months data (with thanks to @GoldFishCharts website for import/export data and @BullionaireBob for filling in two holes in my COMEX data set) and calculated some factors for estimating unknowns within a reasonable ball park range.

Factors​

From October 2025 through December 2025, The UK silver imports from the USA ranged from 52% to 77% of the Withdrawn total from the COMEX for the same month. I had been overly generous in estimating this 'D' variable at 90% the last few months. The average percent for Oct-Dec was 65%.

Additionally, UK silver imports from the USA ranged from 51% to 67% of the total UK silver imports per month. The average percent over the three months was 60%.

Finally, the NET UK silver imports per month (ie. imports - exports) ranged from 70% to 87% of the total UK silver imports per month. The average percent over the three months was 80%.

New Formula​

It's only three data points (Oct-Nov-Dec), but the percent ranges and averages seem consistent enough to make reasonable factors for estimating purposes. Thus, my new formula for estimating the LBMA's end of February vault stock is:

X = A - B + (((C * D) / E) * F)

X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (27,729 Official | 26,131 Realistic*) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (21,196) ETF vault stock (current)
C = (1,591.8) COMEX withdrawn for February
D = (0.65) Estimated % of COMEX Withdrawn that was exported to London
E = (0.60) Estimated total UK silver imports
F = (0.80) Estimated net UK silver imports

The new formula yields the results posted above.

Considerations​

With a massive withdrawal rate at the COMEX, it would seem that the LBMA's free float has grown and is in better shape than it was on Feb 2, but there are a few considerations that might affect that conclusion:

Silver lease rates have been climbing every day for the last week. This indicates tightness with available supply in London (in the LBMA system).

ETF vault stock (particularly SLV, but also Blackrock's SSLN) appear to have been raided for vault stock by APs redeeming borrowed shares. If that is correct, the borrowers will need to return the shares and ETF vault stock at some point, so 'B' might be artificially low (much like with Jan30-Feb2).

 

[pmbug]

Mar 2 Silver Report

Vaults
SFE63K ozt
SGE???
PSLV
SLV2.9M ozt
COMEX2.8M ozt
COMEX run rate~119d
1mo Lease Rate 1.86%
Mar26 EFP spread +$0.04

Price
SFE $97.71
SGE $96.73
Retail $86.41
MCX $85.32
COMEX Mar26 $82.90
Spot $82.86

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Silver dropped from ~$95 to ~$87, recovered to ~$90 at the close, and fell below $80 overnight and has climbed back to ~$82 this morning. Rollercoaster!

Lease Rates​

The 1 month lease rate apparently popped to 2.15% over the weekend, but has dropped slightly to 1.86% as of this morning (still higher than Friday's 1.72%). Climbing lease rates signal increasing tightness in the LBMA liquid free float vault stock.

COMEX 2-27​

607K ozt (18.9t) deposited mostly in Loomis [R] (372K) [E] (221K)

3.4M ozt (104.9t) withdrawn from CNT (1.5M), JPM (1M), Loomis (601K), et al

34K ozt (1t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT (15K), Delaware (19K)

54K ozt (1.7t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (15K), JPM (19K), StoneX (20K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 357.6M ozt (88.8M [R], 268.8M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.29M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.8M / 772K = ~115 (working) days (~5.75 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's large 3.4M ozt withdrawal was slightly offset by 607K in deposits - the second day in a row for a moderate inflow. The net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by 9 days.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 08:34: $82.86

Mar26 = +$0.04 vs -$0.12 Previous
Apr26 = -$0.13 vs +$0.11
May26 = +$0.56 vs +$0.38
(I forgot to save the MW futures screenshot - D-oh!)

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread slightly positive! Apr26 EFP spread now negative! May26 shifted positive. What happened with Apr26?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee at 0.39%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 5th day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3.2M shares
JPM:2.9M ozt (90.2t)

SLV vault stock still draining. Lease rates still rising.

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

Is .3413 units/ozt ratio the new normal or will PSLV acquire more silver to raise the ratio back to the historical .3434 level?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $96.01 (less 10% taxes = $86.41)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.94 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.32)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.64
MCX 'spot' : $97.72 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $96.73 (no VAT)
SFE $97.71

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11

SFE63K ozt (2t)

China SGE Note​

SGE removed the silver vault stock data from it's weekly report. It's unclear if this was just an anomaly or a new "LBMA normal".

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

Mar 3 Silver

Vaults
SFE407K ozt
SGE423K ozt
PSLV
SLV2.7M ozt
COMEX2.4M ozt
COMEX run rate~83d
1mo Lease Rate 1.72%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.56

Price
SFE $98.23
SGE $96.81
Retail $88.45
MCX $87.34
Spot $85.67
COMEX Mar26 $84.93 (5 hours old quote)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Silver dipped, recovered and bobbed around $82.50, and drifted higher in the overnight/morning hours to $85+.

Lease Rate​

1 month lease fell back Friday's 1.72%. Did London receive a large shipment of COMEX silver?

COMEX 3-2​

26K ozt (0.8t) mostly in CNT

2.4M ozt (75.2t) from Brinks (1.2M), CNT (610K), Loomis (600K)

790K ozt (24.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (607K), CNT (183K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 355.2M ozt (88M [R], 267.2M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.77M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 88M / 1.06M = ~83 (working) days (~4 months)

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 2.4M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by a whopping 32 days as the Feb 23 withdrawal goose egg falls out of the 5 day window.

COMEX Commentary P2​

Mar26 delivery notices continue at a healthy pace. I expect the withdrawals are going to also continue at a solid pace. If Mar26 EFP spread also dips firmly negative, withdrawals might accelerate.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:50: $85.67

Mar26 = -$0.56 vs +$0.04 Previous (spot @ 02:42: $85.49)
Apr26 = -$0.20 vs -$0.13
May26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.56

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread firmly negative again. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads also shifted negative. CME report for Mar 3 (due this afternoon) likely to reflect a large withdrawal?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee still at 0.39%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 6th day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3M shares
JPM:2.7M ozt (84.5t)

SLV vault stock recovers most of what it lost yesterday. It's a yo-yo inventory.

PSLV​

units
ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

Zzzzzzzzz. The last significant addition to PSLV vault stock was a month ago on Feb 5.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $98.28 (less 10% taxes = $88.45)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $94.12 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$87.34)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $92.32
MCX 'spot' : $88.12 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $96.81 (no VAT)
SFE $98.23

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11

SFE407K ozt (12.7t)
SGE423K ozt (13.2t) through Feb 27

ICYMI:​

 

[pmbug]

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

SGE silver vault - 13.2
SFE silver vault - 47
SLV London vault - 474.8
PSLV silver vault - 0.02
COMEX silver stock - 200.2
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Feb 23-27 = 214.42
Feb 16-20 = 764.27
Feb 9-13 = 720.8993
Feb 2-6 = 22.6
Jan 26-30 = 1,000.77
...

China's SGE vault data covers Feb 24-27 (Feb 23 was a holiday). SGE + SFE inventories are getting critically low, but they keep bleeding vault stock. It seems like the price pressure evident by the ~$11 SGE premium over LBMA spot will continue.

PSLV just posted a small 686 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV remains curiously quiet.

Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak, but the rate of drain slowed down from previous weeks. A firmly negative Mar26 EFP spread and elevated 1mo lease rate would suggest that COMEX withdrawals might increase soon.

On Mon & Tue last week, SLV recouped most of what it lost over the previous two weeks, but on Fri, SLV began bleeding inventory again. SLV vault stock inventory is a bit of a yo-yo lately.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

 

[Voodoo]

Speaking of Yo-Yo inventory this is the best ETF comparison I can make. The XRT was the first go to for GME shares like SLV is the go to for Silver.

Look at what they do with this "quiet" ETF. Dang can't even find it at the moment.

 

[pmbug]

Mar 4 Silver Market​

SFE $97.54
SGE $95.11
Retail $86.51
MCX $85.94
Spot $84.46
Mar26 $83.91

1mo Lease Rate 1.5%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.55

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Silver dropped from $85+ down to $83+, touched ~$85 again at night, dropped to $81+ and bounced back to $84+ this morning.

Lease Rate​

1 month lease fell back to 1.5% as COMEX withdrawals are increasing again and SLV vault stock is draining again.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Current spot price @ 07:12: $84.46

Mar26 = -$0.55 vs -$0.56 Previous
Apr26 = -$0.16 vs -$0.20 (spot @ 06:30: $84.30)
May26 = +$0.01 vs +$0.14

EFP Commentary​

Mar26 EFP spread remains firmly negative. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads collapsing towards zero. COMEX withdrawals appear to be increasing as expected.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $96.12 (less 10% taxes = $86.51)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $92.61 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.94)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $90.91
MCX 'spot' : $89.13 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $95.11 (no VAT)
SFE $97.54

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11

ICYMI:​

~~~

Mar 4 Silver Vaults​

Vaults (ozt)
SFE710K
PSLV299
SLV1.2M
COMEX2.9M

COMEX run rate~75d
SFE run rate ~18d
SGE run rate ~180d

Details

COMEX 3-3​

deposited

2.9M ozt (91.9t) from Asahi (65K), Brinks (600K), CNT (800K), IDS Del (603K), MT&B (883K) et al

842K ozt (26.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (379K), IDS Del (95K), Malca-Amit (367K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 352.2M ozt (87.1M [R], 265.1M [E])

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.92M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 87.1M / 1.15M = ~75 (working) days (~3.75 months)

COMEX Mar26​

Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,955
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 29,775,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 5,371,317.76

Withdrawals are currently 18% of Mar26 delivery requests (but we're just getting started).

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 2.9M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by 8 days. Two more days of 2.5M+ withdrawals and the 5 day average will rise (and the run rate est will shrink) significantly.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.39% to 0.34%

Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 7th day in a row now.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.2M shares
JPM:1.2M ozt (39.2t)

Unusual to see daily gain/drain of ozt/shares > 1. Usually more shares are gained/drained than ozt.

PSLV​

units
299 ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413

Zzzzzzzzz. Why an adjustment now? It's been over a week since the last adjustment and a month since the last deposit/inflow.

SFE Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 8,768,184 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 473K/day

Run rate = 8.8M / 473K = ~18 (working) days (~1 month)

SGE Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 14,308,210.00 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 395K/week

Run rate = 14.3M / 395K = ~36 weeks (~9 months)

 

[Voodoo]

Finally found some XRT Data. It hasn't been as bad in the last few days but it easily bounces from 8 mil shares outstanding to 2-4 million the next day and then back again. Crazy.

XRT Short Interest | ChartExchange

XRT Short Interest

chartexchange.com