Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)
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Feb 27 Silver ReportVaults
PSLV
SLV
3.3M ozt 
COMEX
306K oztCOMEX run rate
~124dMar26 EFP spread -$0.03
Details
LBMA spot 
Silver popped from the $89.50 open to $92, then $94 and settled at ~$93.64. Conflict with Iran started after the market close. Will gold and silver pop on the Sun night/Mon morning open?
COMEX 2-26
1.1M ozt (36t) deposited in Asahi [R] (824K), StoneX [R] (307K), et al
1.5M ozt (45.5t) withdrawn from CNT (485K), JPM (648K), MT&B (193K), et al
1.2M ozt (36.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (111K), Delaware (86K), Loomis (964K)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 360.3M ozt (88.4M [R], 271.9M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.18M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.4M / 711K = ~124 (working) days (~6.25 months)
COMEX Commentary
Thursday's 1.5M ozt withdrawal was balanced by 1.1M in deposits - the first significant (>1M ozt) deposit since Jan 30. The net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down and extended the run rate estimate by another 19 days.
EFP spreads (EST)
Current spot price $93.81
Mar26 = -$0.03 vs -$0.16 Previous (spot @ 15:30: $93.86)
Apr26 = +$0.18 vs +$0.31
May26 = +$0.53 vs +$0.57
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread almost zero! COMEX daily withdrawals now less than 1.5M/day since Feb 18. Will COMEX withdrawals run heavy without a negative EFP spread on Mar26 contract?
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rises from 0.36% to 0.39%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 4th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
3.7M shares JPM:
3.3M ozt (104.2t) SLV vault stock raiding is back. Huge drop in shares and ozt on a day where spot price rose ~7%.
PSLV
No change to units
No change to ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413
PSLV's units/ozt ratio was ~.3434 up until the end of November. It got pretty volatile for a while - bouncing up and down until mid-January. Since then it has been pretty stable lately around .3413. It's unclear to me if this is the new normal or if PSLV will acquire more silver to raise the ratio back to the historical levels.
ICYMI:
Now you are starting to see how All these ETF's are actually being used by Market Makers.
Desperate times... desperate measures.
1mo silver lease rate up to 2.15% now. Even with APs (bullion banks) raiding SLV for vault stock, It appears that stress is building with the LBMA's liquid free float silver (higher lease rates generally indicate supply stress).
Either the COMEX opens the floodgates and increases the withdrawals/exports to London, or the LBMA is going to have problems very soon (sometime in March I'm guessing).
Mar 1 Silver ReportVaults
SFE
91.3K oztMar26 EFP spread -$0.12
Price
SFE $110.45 SGE $108.49
Retail $95.84 MCX $94.51 Spot $94.32
COMEX Mar26 $94.12Details
LBMA Spot
Silver popped from the ~$93.60 Sun night open to $96, fell back to ~$92.50, rose back to ~$96 and has drifted down to ~$94.50. Looks like a war trade vs. Mr. Slammy battle.
Lease Rates
The 1 month lease rate has been steadily climbing for the last week which signals increasing tightness in the LBMA liquid free float vault stock.
EFP spreads (ET)
Current spot price @ 08:30: $94.32
Mar26 = -$0.12 vs -$0.03 Previous (spot @ 08:12: $94.24)
Apr26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.18 (spot @ 08:20: $94.44)
May26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.53
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread shifted more negative. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads tightened. I would expect COMEX withdrawals to increase again given the rising lease rates.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $106.49 (less 10% taxes = $95.84)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $101.84 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$94.51)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $99.69
MCX 'spot' : $98.33 (taxes?)
China
SGE $108.49
(no VAT) SFE $110.45
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$13
SFE
91.3K ozt (2.8t)Very small inflow, but it was an inflow
ICYMI:
Estimates for the LBMA's end of February silver vault stock (in metric tons):LBMA official
Vault Stock = 29,109
Free Float = 7,913
PMBug "realistic"
Vault Stock = 27,511
Free Float = 6,315
I'm estimating the LBMA's *liquid* free float (6,315t total FF - 3421t illiquid FF) for silver to have an upper bound limit in the neighborhood of 2,894t. At at spot price of $100/ozt, that's ~$9.3B. That said, see the considerations mentioned at the end of this post for important context.
Details
The LBMA is due to report their end of February silver stock report on Friday, Mar 6. I fully expect them to report another overstated number. I estimate the LBMA's vault stock using known data for comparison.
Old Formula
The last few months, I used a simple formula for estimating/forecasting the LBMA's vault stock and free float:
X = A - B + (C * D) - E - F
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = ETF vault stock (current)
C = COMEX withdrawn for current month
D = An estimated percentage of COMEX withdrawn that was shipped to London
E = Export to China (SGE/SFE) (est for current month)
F = Export to India (est for current month)
Last month, I was way off on 'F' and after closer examination of the import/export data from previous months, I've realized this formula/method needs some improvement. So, I built a spreadsheet using past months data (with thanks to @GoldFishCharts website for import/export data and @BullionaireBob for filling in two holes in my COMEX data set) and calculated some factors for estimating unknowns within a reasonable ball park range.
Factors
From October 2025 through December 2025, The UK silver imports from the USA ranged from 52% to 77% of the Withdrawn total from the COMEX for the same month. I had been overly generous in estimating this 'D' variable at 90% the last few months. The average percent for Oct-Dec was 65%.
Additionally, UK silver imports from the USA ranged from 51% to 67% of the total UK silver imports per month. The average percent over the three months was 60%.
Finally, the NET UK silver imports per month (ie. imports - exports) ranged from 70% to 87% of the total UK silver imports per month. The average percent over the three months was 80%.
New Formula
It's only three data points (Oct-Nov-Dec), but the percent ranges and averages seem consistent enough to make reasonable factors for estimating purposes. Thus, my new formula for estimating the LBMA's end of February vault stock is:
X = A - B + (((C * D) / E) * F)
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (27,729 Official | 26,131 Realistic*) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (21,196) ETF vault stock (current)
C = (1,591.8) COMEX withdrawn for February
D = (0.65) Estimated % of COMEX Withdrawn that was exported to London
E = (0.60) Estimated total UK silver imports
F = (0.80) Estimated net UK silver imports
The new formula yields the results posted above.
Considerations
With a massive withdrawal rate at the COMEX, it would seem that the LBMA's free float has grown and is in better shape than it was on Feb 2, but there are a few considerations that might affect that conclusion:
Silver lease rates have been climbing every day for the last week. This indicates tightness with available supply in London (in the LBMA system).ETF vault stock (particularly SLV, but also Blackrock's SSLN) appear to have been raided for vault stock by APs redeeming borrowed shares. If that is correct, the borrowers will need to return the shares and ETF vault stock at some point, so 'B' might be artificially low (much like with Jan30-Feb2).
Mar 2 Silver ReportVaults
SFE
63K oztSGE???
PSLV
SLV
2.9M ozt COMEX
2.8M oztCOMEX run rate
~119d1mo Lease Rate 1.86%
Mar26 EFP spread +$0.04
Price
SFE $97.71 SGE $96.73 Retail $86.41 MCX $85.32 COMEX Mar26 $82.90 Spot $82.86Details
LBMA Spot
Silver dropped from ~$95 to ~$87, recovered to ~$90 at the close, and fell below $80 overnight and has climbed back to ~$82 this morning. Rollercoaster!
Lease Rates
The 1 month lease rate apparently popped to 2.15% over the weekend, but has dropped slightly to 1.86% as of this morning (still higher than Friday's 1.72%). Climbing lease rates signal increasing tightness in the LBMA liquid free float vault stock.
COMEX 2-27
607K ozt (18.9t) deposited mostly in Loomis [R] (372K) [E] (221K)
3.4M ozt (104.9t) withdrawn from CNT (1.5M), JPM (1M), Loomis (601K), et al
34K ozt (1t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT (15K), Delaware (19K)
54K ozt (1.7t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (15K), JPM (19K), StoneX (20K)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 357.6M ozt (88.8M [R], 268.8M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.29M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 88.8M / 772K = ~115 (working) days (~5.75 months)
COMEX Commentary
Friday's large 3.4M ozt withdrawal was slightly offset by 607K in deposits - the second day in a row for a moderate inflow. The net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by 9 days.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Current spot price @ 08:34: $82.86
Mar26 = +$0.04 vs -$0.12 Previous
Apr26 = -$0.13 vs +$0.11
May26 = +$0.56 vs +$0.38
(I forgot to save the MW futures screenshot - D-oh!)
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread slightly positive! Apr26 EFP spread now negative! May26 shifted positive. What happened with Apr26?
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee at 0.39%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 5th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
3.2M shares JPM:
2.9M ozt (90.2t) SLV vault stock still draining. Lease rates still rising.
PSLV
unitsoztUnits/ozt ratio .3413
Is .3413 units/ozt ratio the new normal or will PSLV acquire more silver to raise the ratio back to the historical .3434 level?
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $96.01 (less 10% taxes = $86.41)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.94 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.32)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.64
MCX 'spot' : $97.72 (taxes?)
China
SGE $96.73
(no VAT)SFE $97.71
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE
63K ozt (2t)China SGE Note
SGE removed the silver vault stock data from it's weekly report. It's unclear if this was just an anomaly or a new "LBMA normal".
ICYMI:
Mar 3 SilverVaults
SFE
407K oztSGE
423K oztPSLV
SLV
2.7M oztCOMEX
2.4M oztCOMEX run rate
~83d1mo Lease Rate 1.72%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.56
Price
SFE $98.23 SGE $96.81 Retail $88.45 MCX $87.34 Spot $85.67 COMEX Mar26 $84.93 (5 hours old quote)Details
LBMA Spot
Silver dipped, recovered and bobbed around $82.50, and drifted higher in the overnight/morning hours to $85+.
Lease Rate
1 month lease fell back Friday's 1.72%. Did London receive a large shipment of COMEX silver?
COMEX 3-2
26K ozt (0.8t) mostly in CNT2.4M ozt (75.2t) from Brinks (1.2M), CNT (610K), Loomis (600K)790K ozt (24.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (607K), CNT (183K)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 355.2M ozt (88M [R], 267.2M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.77M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 88M / 1.06M = ~83 (working) days (~4 months)
COMEX Commentary
Monday's 2.4M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by a whopping 32 days as the Feb 23 withdrawal goose egg falls out of the 5 day window.
COMEX Commentary P2
Mar26 delivery notices continue at a healthy pace. I expect the withdrawals are going to also continue at a solid pace. If Mar26 EFP spread also dips firmly negative, withdrawals might accelerate.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Current spot price @ 07:50: $85.67
Mar26 = -$0.56 vs +$0.04 Previous (spot @ 02:42: $85.49)
Apr26 = -$0.20 vs -$0.13
May26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.56
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread firmly negative again. Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads also shifted negative. CME report for Mar 3 (due this afternoon) likely to reflect a large withdrawal?
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee still at 0.39%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 6th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
3M sharesJPM:
2.7M ozt (84.5t)SLV vault stock recovers most of what it lost yesterday. It's a yo-yo inventory.
PSLV
unitsoztUnits/ozt ratio .3413
Zzzzzzzzz. The last significant addition to PSLV vault stock was a month ago on Feb 5.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $98.28 (less 10% taxes = $88.45)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $94.12 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$87.34)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $92.32
MCX 'spot' : $88.12 (taxes?)
China
SGE $96.81
(no VAT)SFE $98.23
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE
407K ozt (12.7t)SGE
423K ozt (13.2t) through Feb 27ICYMI:
Last week in silver (in metric tons):
SGE silver vault -13.2
SFE silver vault -47
SLV London vault -474.8
PSLV silver vault -0.02 
COMEX silver stock -200.2
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)
Global net change (less LBMA):
Feb 23-27 =214.42
Feb 16-20 =764.27
Feb 9-13 =720.8993
Feb 2-6 =22.6
Jan 26-30 =1,000.77
...
China's SGE vault data covers Feb 24-27 (Feb 23 was a holiday). SGE + SFE inventories are getting critically low, but they keep bleeding vault stock. It seems like the price pressure evident by the ~$11 SGE premium over LBMA spot will continue.
PSLV just posted a small 686 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV remains curiously quiet.
Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak, but the rate of drain slowed down from previous weeks. A firmly negative Mar26 EFP spread and elevated 1mo lease rate would suggest that COMEX withdrawals might increase soon.
On Mon & Tue last week, SLV recouped most of what it lost over the previous two weeks, but on Fri, SLV began bleeding inventory again. SLV vault stock inventory is a bit of a yo-yo lately.
One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.
SGE silver vault -
13.2SFE silver vault -
47SLV London vault -
474.8PSLV silver vault -
0.02 COMEX silver stock -
200.2LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)
Global net change (less LBMA):
Feb 23-27 =
214.42Feb 16-20 =
764.27 Feb 9-13 =
720.8993Feb 2-6 =
22.6Jan 26-30 =
1,000.77...
China's SGE vault data covers Feb 24-27 (Feb 23 was a holiday). SGE + SFE inventories are getting critically low, but they keep bleeding vault stock. It seems like the price pressure evident by the ~$11 SGE premium over LBMA spot will continue.
PSLV just posted a small 686 ozt adjustment last week. PSLV remains curiously quiet.
Last week the COMEX continued it's 2026 draining streak, but the rate of drain slowed down from previous weeks. A firmly negative Mar26 EFP spread and elevated 1mo lease rate would suggest that COMEX withdrawals might increase soon.
On Mon & Tue last week, SLV recouped most of what it lost over the previous two weeks, but on Fri, SLV began bleeding inventory again. SLV vault stock inventory is a bit of a yo-yo lately.
One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.
Speaking of Yo-Yo inventory this is the best ETF comparison I can make. The XRT was the first go to for GME shares like SLV is the go to for Silver.
Look at what they do with this "quiet" ETF. Dang can't even find it at the moment.
Look at what they do with this "quiet" ETF. Dang can't even find it at the moment.
Mar 4 Silver Market
SFE $97.54 SGE $95.11 Retail $86.51 MCX $85.94 Spot $84.46 Mar26 $83.911mo Lease Rate 1.5%
Mar26 EFP spread -$0.55
Details
LBMA Spot
Silver dropped from $85+ down to $83+, touched ~$85 again at night, dropped to $81+ and bounced back to $84+ this morning.
Lease Rate
1 month lease fell back to 1.5% as COMEX withdrawals are increasing again and SLV vault stock is draining again.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Current spot price @ 07:12: $84.46
Mar26 = -$0.55 vs -$0.56 Previous
Apr26 = -$0.16 vs -$0.20 (spot @ 06:30: $84.30)
May26 = +$0.01 vs +$0.14
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread remains firmly negative.
Apr26 & May26 EFP spreads collapsing towards zero. COMEX withdrawals appear to be increasing as expected.India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $96.12 (less 10% taxes = $86.51)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $92.61 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$85.94)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $90.91
MCX 'spot' : $89.13 (taxes?)
China
SGE $95.11
(no VAT)SFE $97.54
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
ICYMI:
~~~
Mar 4 Silver Vaults
Vaults (ozt)
SFE
710KPSLV
299SLV
1.2MCOMEX
2.9MCOMEX run rate
~75dSFE run rate ~18d
SGE run rate ~180d
Details
COMEX 3-3
deposited2.9M ozt (91.9t) from Asahi (65K), Brinks (600K), CNT (800K), IDS Del (603K), MT&B (883K) et al842K ozt (26.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (379K), IDS Del (95K), Malca-Amit (367K)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 352.2M ozt (87.1M [R], 265.1M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.92M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 87.1M / 1.15M = ~75 (working) days (~3.75 months)
COMEX Mar26
Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,955
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 29,775,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 5,371,317.76
Withdrawals are currently 18% of Mar26 delivery requests (but we're just getting started).
COMEX Commentary
Tuesday's 2.9M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up and shortened the run rate estimate by 8 days. Two more days of 2.5M+ withdrawals and the 5 day average will rise (and the run rate est will shrink) significantly.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee fell from 0.39% to 0.34%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 7th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
1.2M sharesJPM:
1.2M ozt (39.2t)Unusual to see daily gain/drain of ozt/shares > 1.
Usually more shares are gained/drained than ozt.PSLV
units299 ozt
Units/ozt ratio .3413
Zzzzzzzzz. Why an adjustment now? It's been over a week since the last adjustment and a month since the last deposit/inflow.
SFE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 8,768,184 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 473K/day
Run rate = 8.8M / 473K = ~18 (working) days (~1 month)
SGE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 14,308,210.00 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 weeks = 395K/week
Run rate = 14.3M / 395K = ~36 weeks (~9 months)
Finally found some XRT Data. It hasn't been as bad in the last few days but it easily bounces from 8 mil shares outstanding to 2-4 million the next day and then back again. Crazy.
Mar 4 Silver Market
SFE $98.00 SGE $96.24 Retail $84.54 MCX $84.48 Spot $82.53 Mar26 $81.791mo Lease Rate
1.33%Mar26 EFP spread -$0.74
Details
LBMA Spot
Silver dropped from ~$84 down to $80+, rose back to $84+ again at night, and has dropped to $82+ this morning. CME and other exchanges have announced margin decreases.
Lease Rate
1 month lease fell to 1.33% as COMEX withdrawals are increasing again and SLV vault stock is draining again.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Current spot price @ 07:06: $82.53
Mar26 = -$0.74 vs -$0.55 Previous (spot @ 06:58: $82.27)
Apr26 = -$0.21 vs -$0.16 (spot @ 07:02: $82.60)
May26 = +$0.08 vs +$0.01
EFP Commentary
Mar26 EFP spread goes deeply negative (should encourage more COMEX->LBMA flow).
Apr26 shifts more negative and May26 shifts more positive. How will CME margin decreases affect the EFP spreads?India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $93.94 (less 10% taxes = $84.54)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $91.04 (less 7.2% taxes = ~$84.48)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.84
MCX 'spot' : $88.30 (taxes?)
China
SGE $96.24
(no VAT)SFE $98.00
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$12
ICYMI:
~~~
Mar 4 Silver Vaults
Vaults (ozt)
SFE
539KPSLV
SLV
4.4MCOMEX
892KCOMEX run rate
~73dSFE run rate
~20dSGE run rate ~180d (as of Feb 27)
Details
COMEX 3-4
14K ozt (0.4t) deposited in CNT (4K), StoneX (10K [R])
892K ozt (27.7t) from Brinks (332K), CNT (387K), StoneX (141K) et al5.9M ozt (184t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (1.9M), Brinks (303K), Loomis (3.7M)
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 351.3M ozt (81.2M [R], 270.1M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.86M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 81.2M / 1.12M = ~73 (working) days (~3.75 months)
COMEX Mar26
Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 6,466
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 32,330,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 6,262,915.59
Withdrawals are currently 19% of Mar26 delivery requests. Context:
COMEX Commentary
Wednesday's 878K ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average down very slightly, but the massive 5.9M ozt moved out of [R] was more significant as the run rate estimate shrunk by 2 days.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rose from 0.34% to 0.38%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 8th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
4.9M sharesJPM:
4.4M ozt (138t)Unusual to see daily gain/drain of ozt/shares > 1.
Usually more shares are gained/drained than ozt.PSLV
unitsoztUnits/ozt ratio .3413
Zzzzzzzzz. It's been over a month since the last deposit/inflow.
SFE Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 8,229,048.00 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 325K/day
Run rate = 8.2M / 325K = ~20 (working) days (~1 month)
Woa.... 5.9M ozt (184t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (1.9M), Brinks (303K), Loomis (3.7M)
That took a pretty big chunk in one day.
That took a pretty big chunk in one day.
I think that happens around the beginning of each month as the bullion banks prepare for delivering physical metal to the folks wanting delivery on the new contract, but I haven't examined the [R] to [E] flows over the last few months to confirm. That's just going off a loose memory as I never really paid those flows that much attention before.
Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #515 for last month):
The LBMA's February silver vault stock report very much surprised me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,065t) that was slightly less than my 'realistic' forecast (27,511t)!
It appears from comparing LBMA vault stock reports against UK silver import/export data that the LBMA has overstated their vault stock for the last few months. As a consequence, I've included my own 'realistic' estimate for LBMA vault stock derived from analysis of UK silver import/export data and COMEX withdrawals (see below for source link to explanation on how I arrived at this estimate).
Lease rates for silver hit a low for the month on Feb 20 and were rising daily into the month's end. This would be consistent with tightening supply and seems to me to corroborate the LBMA's report this month coming in slightly under my "realistic" forecast.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely just a thin margin over the illiquid threshold.
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,154 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's a decrease of ~128 metric tons (4.1M ozt) from my "realistic" estimate for last month.
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~14,905t (a decrease of ~326t from last month).
A while back, I estimated that ~$36B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,154t = 455,061,700 ozt x $100/ozt = $45.5B
TGFF (including China)
15,231t = 479,206,900 ozt x $100/ozt = $47.9B
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's LBMA Estimates:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
PMBug 'Realistic' Forecast for February LBMA Silver Vault Stock:
Global Vault Stock (in tons) - February 2026
Market | This month | Last month | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LBMA (Total) | 27,065 | 27,729 | -664 |
| ETFs (LBMA vaults) | 21,197 | (Feb 2) 21,866 | -669 |
| LBMA Free Float (LBMA-ETFs) | 5,868 | (Feb 2) 5,863 | 5 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Total | 27,511 | 26,131 | 1,380 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Free Float (Feb 2) | 6,314 | 4,265 | 2,049 |
| COMEX | 11,121.53 | 12,618.61 | -1,497.08 |
| SLV NYC Vault | 2,835.67 | 2,928.99 | -93.32 |
| COMEX-SLV (free float) | 8,285.86 | 9,689.62 | -1,403.76 |
| SFE/SGE | 751.631 | 948.733 | -197.102 |
| PSLV | 6,747.364 | 6,770.314 | -22.95 |
LBMA February Silver Vault Stock
The LBMA's February silver vault stock report very much surprised me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,065t) that was slightly less than my 'realistic' forecast (27,511t)!
PMBug Estimate
It appears from comparing LBMA vault stock reports against UK silver import/export data that the LBMA has overstated their vault stock for the last few months. As a consequence, I've included my own 'realistic' estimate for LBMA vault stock derived from analysis of UK silver import/export data and COMEX withdrawals (see below for source link to explanation on how I arrived at this estimate).
Considerations
Lease rates for silver hit a low for the month on Feb 20 and were rising daily into the month's end. This would be consistent with tightening supply and seems to me to corroborate the LBMA's report this month coming in slightly under my "realistic" forecast.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely just a thin margin over the illiquid threshold.
Global Free Float Observations
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,154 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's a decrease of ~128 metric tons (4.1M ozt) from my "realistic" estimate for last month.
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~14,905t (a decrease of ~326t from last month).
Global Free Float Value
A while back, I estimated that ~$36B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,154t = 455,061,700 ozt x $100/ozt = $45.5B
TGFF (including China)
15,231t = 479,206,900 ozt x $100/ozt = $47.9B
Final Comments
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
LBMA said:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's LBMA Estimates:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
PMBug 'Realistic' Forecast for February LBMA Silver Vault Stock:
Mar 6 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
1.5MCOMEX
2.2MLBMA
21.3M (February)COMEX run rate
~61dSFE run rate ~20d
(yesterday)SGE run rate ~180d (as of Feb 27)
Details
COMEX 3-4
deposited2.2M ozt (68.3t) from Brinks (305K), CNT (611K), MT&B (1.3M) et al498K ozt (15.5t) moved from [E] to [R] in Loomis
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 349.1M ozt (81.7M [R], 267.4M [E])
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 2.24M/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 81.7M / 1.34M = ~61 (working) days (~3 months)
COMEX Mar26
Mar26 contract cumulative deliveries = 6,615
Mar26 contract equivalent ozt = 33,075,000
Actual withdrawals in Mar ozt = 8,458,945.91
Withdrawals are currently ~25% of Mar26 delivery requests.
COMEX Commentary
Thursday's 2.2M ozt net withdrawal brought the 5 day moving average up significantly as the run rate estimate shrunk by 12 days. If the markets continue at this rate, the COMEX will be in trouble around June.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee fell from 0.38% to 0.30%
Plenty of shares available to plunder with almost no activity yesterday for the 9th day in a row now.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
1.7M sharesJPM:
1.5M ozt (47.9t)SLV continues to bleed vault stock. It's going to be wild when the trend reverses and there isn't sufficient silver in the LBMA vaults to restock SLV.
PSLV
unitsoztUnits/ozt ratio .3413
It's been over a month since the last deposit/inflow.LBMA
See previous post
