Silver Market 260605

[pmbug]

Jun 5 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $80.65
SGE Spot $80.61 (~$8 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $73.78
LBMA Spot $72.89
COMEX Jun26 Futures $72.73 ($0.04 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
IBJA PM Spot $71.45 (~$1.50 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$74.50, closed just under $74, crashed to ~$71 last night and has recoverd to ~$73 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:54 : $72.89

Jun26 = -$0.04 vs +$0.03 Previously (spot @ 06:00 : $72.77)
Jul26 = +$0.16 vs +$0.24
Aug26 = +$0.37 vs +$0.47 (spot @ 05:32 : $72.70)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread turns slightly negative. It's likely not enough for an arbitrage profit for sending COMEX silver to London/LBMA. Jul & Aug spreads contract.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.69 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $73.95)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $86.80 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $73.78)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $85.23
IBJA PM spot : $84.06 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $71.45)

China ​

SGE $80.61(no VAT)
SFE $80.65

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.04 (from $0.26)


~~~

Jun 5 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX60K
SFE9K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~0.6% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 1,133d
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of May 29)

COMEX 6-3​

ozt

60K ozt (1.9t) from CNT

275K ozt (8.5t) moved from [E] to [R] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.2M ozt (84.8M [R], 234.4M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 545K/day DEPOSIT (from 713K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,084
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,420,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 60,381.88

Jun withdrawals are currently ~0.6% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 60K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 777K ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

The zero withdrawn streak ended Wednesday with a tiny withdrawal. So tiny that it is unlikely representing a bullion bank trying to send COMEX silver to London to support the LBMA.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports no activity since May 28. I'm seriously beginning to wonder if the IB reporting is broken.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=

Apparently SLV was quiet yesterday. At least the people who report activity had an easy day.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

9K ozt (0.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,270,170 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 28K/day (from 97K/day)

Run rate = 31.3M / 28K = ~1,133 (working) days(~57 months)

A tiny 9K outflow replaces a moderate 355K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdraw rate is now a third of what it was. A large 655K withdrawal rolls out of the window next. There is a good chance the 5 DMA withdrawal rate flips to a net deposit rate on Monday.

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260604.8991/

 

[Voodoo]

Time here soon for one of my last physical buys I guess. Fake jobs and fake markets.