Silver Market 260611

[pmbug]

Jun 11 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $70.80 (~$6 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $70.72
MCX Futures $65.92
IBJA Spot $64.22 (~$0.47 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $63.93
COMEX Jun26 Futures $63.99 ($0.09 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$64 and closed ~$63.30, and is running about ~$63.60 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:54 : $63.93

Jun26 = -$0.09 vs -$0.03 Previously (spot @ 02:44 : $64.08)
Jul26 = +$0.23 vs +$0.15
Aug26 = +$0.42 vs +$0.33 (spot @ 06:14 : $64.00)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP moves slightly more negative. Jul26 & Aug26 spreads increase by ~$0.10 each. Does a -$0.09 Jun26 EFP spread offer an arbitrage profit for sending COMEX silver to London/LBMA? That's $450 per contract (5K ozt) to cover shipping, insurance, etc. which are more or less a fixed cost (don't scale with additional contracts). I'm thinking it might be.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $81.85 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $66.75)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $77.55 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $65.92)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $75.96
IBJA PM spot : $75.55 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.22)

The IBJA-LBMA spot premium holds for a second day.

China ​

SGE $70.80(no VAT)
SFE $70.72

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$6
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.08 (from $0.54)

What is happening in China? The SGE-LBMA spot premium is shrinking and the SFE-SGE (futures-spot) premium has turned to a discount. This has occured with both gold and silver.


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Jun 11 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV226K
COMEX593K
SFE679K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~11.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 58d (from 95d)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 5)

COMEX 6-9​

1.2M ozt (37.3t) in Asahi

606K ozt (18.9t) from MT&B

265K ozt moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

5.4 ozt adjusted into existence in JPM

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 320M ozt (85.2M [R], 234.8M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 135K/day DEPOSIT (from 136K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,167
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,835,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 1,241,888.98

Jun withdrawals are currently ~11.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 593K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate just slightly as a 600K ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises remains 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports no activity since June 8.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:250K shares
JPM:226K ozt (7t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=

SLV posts a tiny drain. London vault stock is now 401M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

679K ozt (21.1t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 28,783,440 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 499K/day (from 309K/day)

Run rate = 28.8M / 499K = ~58 (working) days(~3 months)

A 679K outflow replaces a 272K inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows significantly again. It's curious that the SFE silver vault drain is accelerating while the SFE futures price is falling (relative to SGE spot). It looks like demand for immediate delivery physical silver is growing in China (again).

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260610.9015/