Silver Market 260612

Jun 12 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $73.49
SGE Spot $72.70 (~$7 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $68.81
IBJA Spot $67.40 (~$0.40 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $66.97
COMEX Jun26 Futures $67.15 ($0.02 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$63.50 and closed ~$67.30, and is running just under $67 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:28 : $66.97

Jun26 = -$0.02 vs -$0.09 Previously (spot @ 04:28 : $67.17)
Jul26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.23
Aug26 = +$0.32 vs +$0.42 (spot @ 05:40 : $67.46)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread stays within a few cents of zero. Likely not sufficient to realize arbitrage profit sending silver to London.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $85.05 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $69.36)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.95 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $68.81)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.42
IBJA PM spot : $79.30 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $67.40)

The IBJA-LBMA spot premium holds for a second day.

China ​

SGE $72.70(no VAT)
SFE $73.49

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE premium to SGE = $0.79 (from -$0.08)

China silver market premiums on the rise this morning.

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Jun 12 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV769K
COMEX610K
SFE296K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~22.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 52d (from 58d)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 5)

COMEX 6-10​

602K ozt (18.7t) in Asahi

1.2M ozt (37.7t) from Delaware (4K), JPM (608K), Loomis (600K)

ozt moved between [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.3M ozt (85.2M [R], 234.2M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 25K/day DEPOSIT (from 135K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,181
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,905,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 2,454,200.65

Jun withdrawals are currently ~22.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 610K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate significantly as a 60K ozt net withdrawal rolls out of the 5 DMA window. Wednesday was essentially the opposite of Tuesday. If you add the withdrawals and deposits from both days together, it's basically a wash (1,801,680.8 ozt deposit, 1,818,688.31 ozt withdrawal, -17K net withdrawal).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises remains 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports no activity since June 8.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:850K shares
JPM:769K ozt (23.9t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=

SLV posts another drain. London vault stock is now 400.2M ozt.

Monday is the 15th (middle of the month) and I expect JPM will effect another 3M ozt NYC-London vault stock swap like they have done for the last few months.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

296K ozt (9.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 28,487,520 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 557K/day (from 499K/day)

Run rate = 28.5M / 557K = ~52 (working) days(~2.6 months)

A 296K outflow replaces a 9K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows again. Less than 3 months of vault stock left at this withdrawal rate. Will the price of silver in China react to diminishing supply?

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260611.9017/