Jun 12 Silver Market Morning Snapshot
SFE Futures $73.49 SGE Spot $72.70 (~$7
LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $68.81 IBJA Spot $67.40 (~$0.40 LBMA Spot) LBMA Spot $66.97
COMEX Jun26 Futures $67.15 ($0.02
LBMA Spot @ last quote)Quotes
taxes/dutiesLBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened ~$63.50 and closed ~$67.30, and is running just under $67 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:28 : $66.97
Jun26 = -$0.02 vs -$0.09 Previously (spot @ 04:28 : $67.17)
Jul26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.23
Aug26 = +$0.32 vs +$0.42 (spot @ 05:40 : $67.46)
EFP Commentary
Jun26 EFP spread stays within a few cents of zero. Likely not sufficient to realize arbitrage profit sending silver to London.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $85.05 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $69.36)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.95 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $68.81)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.42
IBJA PM spot : $79.30 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $67.40)
The IBJA-LBMA spot premium holds for a second day.
China
SGE $72.70
(no VAT)SFE $73.49
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE premium to SGE = $0.79 (
from -$0.08)China silver market premiums on the rise this morning.
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Jun 12 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
769K
COMEX
610KSFE
296KCOMEX withdrawals are currently ~22.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 52d
(from 58d)SGE 5 WMA run rate
(as of Jun 5)COMEX 6-10
602K ozt (18.7t) in Asahi1.2M ozt (37.7t) from Delaware (4K), JPM (608K), Loomis (600K)ozt moved between [E] and [R]COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 319.3M ozt (85.2M [R], 234.2M [E])
Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 25K/day DEPOSIT (
from 135K/day)@ 52% [R], run rate =
@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =
@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =
@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =
COMEX Jun26
Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,181
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,905,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 2,454,200.65
Jun withdrawals are currently ~22.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Wednesday's 610K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate significantly as a 60K ozt net withdrawal rolls out of the 5 DMA window. Wednesday was essentially the opposite of Tuesday. If you add the withdrawals and deposits from both days together, it's basically a wash (1,801,680.8 ozt deposit, 1,818,688.31 ozt withdrawal, -17K net withdrawal).
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rises remains 0.41%
Interactive Brokers reports no activity since June 8.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
850K sharesJPM:
769K ozt (23.9t)ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=
SLV posts another drain. London vault stock is now 400.2M ozt.
Monday is the 15th (middle of the month) and I expect JPM will effect another 3M ozt NYC-London vault stock swap like they have done for the last few months.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio 0.34123
PSLV sleeping again.
SFE Run Rate
296K ozt (9.2t)Remaining Vault Stock = 28,487,520 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 557K/day (
from 499K/day)Run rate = 28.5M / 557K = ~52 (working) days
(~2.6 months)A 296K outflow replaces a 9K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows again. Less than 3 months of vault stock left at this withdrawal rate. Will the price of silver in China react to diminishing supply?
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260611.9017/