Silver Market 260625

[pmbug]

Jun 25 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $63.18 (~$6.35 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
SFE Futures $63.17
MCX Futures $62.51
IBJA Spot $62.05 (~$5 LBMA Spot @ 07:00)
LBMA Spot $57.26
COMEX Jun26 Futures $57.25 ($0.69 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just under $60, closed $57.30, and has chopped all night and is ~$57.20 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:00 : $57.26

Jun26 = +$0.69 vs -$0.30 Previously (spot @ 13:50 Jun 24 : $56.56)
Jul26 = +$0.08 vs -$0.03
Aug26 = +$0.30 vs +$0.30 (spot @ 06:50 : $57.35)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread flips back positive as of the last quote (yesterday afternoon). June contract spread seems pretty volatile with low trading activity.

July contract EFP spread seems to be range bound between plus or minus 10 cents.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $77.48 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $65.41)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $71.89 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $62.51)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $71.01
IBJA PM spot : $71.35 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $62.05)

IBJA spot > LBMA spot in spite of onerous import duties!

China ​

SGE $63.18(no VAT)
SFE $63.17

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$6.40
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.01


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Jun 25 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV770K
COMEX30K
SFE117K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~33.4% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 1,437d (I expect this to shrink tomorrow)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 19)

COMEX 6-23​

ozt

30K ozt (0.9t) from CNT

1.2M ozt (38.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

70K ozt (2.2t) moved from [R] and [E] in Asahi

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 322.8M ozt (87.4M [R], 235.4M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 326K/day DEPOSIT (from 573K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,474
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,370,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 4,136,552.14

Jun withdrawals are currently ~33.4% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's tiny 30K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate massively as a 1.2M ozt net deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Tuesday was the first day since June 4 (almost 3 weeks) that the COMEX fails to post a silver deposit.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.38%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:850K shares
JPM:770K ozt (23.9t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904696 (from 0.904698)

London vault stock now at 400.5M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

117K ozt (3.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,285,210 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 19K/day (from 103K)

Run rate = 27.3M / 19K = ~1,437 (working) days (~72 months) (from 266)

A 117K outflow replaces a 537K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks greatly. A net withdrawal tomorrow would see the withdrawal rate rebound higher as a large 540K deposit is about to roll out of the 5 DMA window.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260624.9051/

 

[pmbug]

OP updated with China market data.