Silver Market 260701

Jul 1 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $64.18
SGE Spot $64.04 ($6.75 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $65.50
IBJA Spot $64.06 (~$6 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $58.07
COMEX Jul26 Futures $58.06 ($0.07 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just below $59, dropped, popped, dropped again and closed ~$58.50. It dropped to ~$57.50 over night and has climbed back to ~$58.20 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:48 : $58.07

Jul26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.04 Previously (spot @ 06:36 : $58.13)
Aug26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.17 (spot @ 06:36 : $58.13)
Sep26 = +$0.43 vs +$0.46

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread holds steady.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.40 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.03)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.32 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $65.50)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $72.96
IBJA PM spot : $73.67 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.06)

China ​

SGE $64.04(no VAT)
SFE $64.18

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $6.75 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.14

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Jul 1 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV633K
COMEX301K
SFE20K

COMEX withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA [R] run rate ~3,123d (from)
COMEX 5 DMA [E] run rate ~2,330d (from)
SFE 5 DMA run rate 139d (from 135)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 26)

COMEX 6-29​

301K ozt (9.4t) in MT&B

ozt

882K ozt (27.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (242K), CNT (520K), Delaware (121K)

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 322.5M ozt (92.6M [R], 230M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 57K/day (from 62K/day DEPOSIT)

@ 52% [R], run rate = 92.6M / 30K = ~3,123 (working) days (~156 months) (from)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (230M - 79.2M) / 57K = ~2,644 (working) days (~132 months) (from)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (230M / 2) / 57K = ~2,016 (working) days (~101 months) (from)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 2,330 (working) days (~117 months) (from)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,594
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 5,321,508.67

Jun withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 301K ozt net deposit replaces a 897K net deposit in the 5 DMA net deposit/withdrawal window and the rate flips from net deposit to net withdrawal. The last time the 5 DMA window was a net withdrawal was May 13 (a month and a half ago).

The Jun26 contract deliveries are finished at 2,594. There is one more day (this afternoon's report for activity as of yesterday) for potential withdrawals against it. It looks like June will end with less than 45% withdrawals as a percent of delivery requests. That's way less than the 129% monthly average across Jan-Apr, but up from the abysmal 39.39% of May.

SLV Share Lending​

9.9M Shares available

Borrow fee drops from 0.59% to 0.47%

Interactive Brokers reports heavy activity yesterday and this morning.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:700K shares
JPM:633K ozt (19.7t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904697 (=from 0.904697)

SLV adds back half of what it lost the day before. London vault stock now at ~400.6M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

20K ozt (0.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,450,350 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 190K/day (from 197K)

Run rate = 26.5M / 190K = ~139 (working) days (~7 months) (from 135)

A tiny 20K net outflow replaces a small 53K net outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks slightly.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260630.9073/