Jul 1 Silver Market Morning Snapshot
SFE Futures $64.18 SGE Spot $64.04 ($6.75
LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $65.50 IBJA Spot $64.06 (~$6 LBMA Spot) LBMA Spot $58.07
COMEX Jul26 Futures $58.06 ($0.07
LBMA Spot @ last quote)Quotes
taxes/dutiesLBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened just below $59, dropped, popped, dropped again and closed ~$58.50. It dropped to ~$57.50 over night and has climbed back to ~$58.20 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 06:48 : $58.07
Jul26 = -$0.07 vs -$0.04 Previously (spot @ 06:36 : $58.13)
Aug26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.17 (spot @ 06:36 : $58.13)
Sep26 = +$0.43 vs +$0.46
EFP Commentary
Jul26 EFP spread holds steady.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.40 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.03)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.32 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $65.50)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $72.96
IBJA PM spot : $73.67 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.06)
China
SGE $64.04
(no VAT)SFE $64.18
SGE premium to LBMA spot = $6.75 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.14
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Jul 1 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
633KCOMEX
301KSFE
20KCOMEX withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA [R] run rate ~3,123d (
from)
COMEX 5 DMA [E] run rate ~2,330d (
from)SFE 5 DMA run rate 139d (
from 135)SGE 5 WMA run rate
(as of Jun 26)COMEX 6-29
301K ozt (9.4t) in MT&Bozt882K ozt (27.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (242K), CNT (520K), Delaware (121K)
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 322.5M ozt (92.6M [R], 230M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 57K/day (
from 62K/day DEPOSIT)@ 52% [R], run rate = 92.6M / 30K = ~3,123 (working) days (~156 months) (
from)@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (230M - 79.2M) / 57K = ~2,644 (working) days (~132 months) (
from)@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (230M / 2) / 57K = ~2,016 (working) days (~101 months) (
from)@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 2,330 (working) days (~117 months) (
from)COMEX Jun26
Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,594
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 5,321,508.67
Jun withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Monday's 301K ozt net deposit replaces a 897K net deposit in the 5 DMA net deposit/withdrawal window and the rate flips from net deposit to net withdrawal. The last time the 5 DMA window was a net withdrawal was May 13 (a month and a half ago).
The Jun26 contract deliveries are finished at 2,594. There is one more day (this afternoon's report for activity as of yesterday) for potential withdrawals against it. It looks like June will end with less than 45% withdrawals as a percent of delivery requests. That's way less than the 129% monthly average across Jan-Apr, but up from the abysmal 39.39% of May.
SLV Share Lending
9.9M Shares available
Borrow fee drops from 0.59% to 0.47%
Interactive Brokers reports heavy activity yesterday and this morning.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
700K sharesJPM:
633K ozt (19.7t)ozt/shares ratio 0.904697 (=from 0.904697)
SLV adds back half of what it lost the day before. London vault stock now at ~400.6M ozt.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio 0.34123
PSLV sleeping again.
SFE Run Rate
20K ozt (0.6t)Remaining Vault Stock = 26,450,350 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 190K/day (
from 197K)Run rate = 26.5M / 190K = ~139 (working) days (~7 months) (
from 135)A tiny 20K net outflow replaces a small 53K net outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks slightly.
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260630.9073/