Silver Report 260512

[pmbug]

May 12 AM Silver Market​

SFE Futures $95.04
SGE Spot $94.91 (~$10 premium to LBMA Spot)
COMEX May26 Futures $84.48 (EFP spread +$0.28)
MCX Futures $83.54
LBMA Spot $83.53
IBJA PM Spot $81.81 (~$1.70 discount to LBMA Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$81, popped and closed ~$86. It chpped up slightly overnight fell back to ~$83 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:16 : $83.53

May26 = +$0.28 vs +$0.45 Previously (spot @ 06:04 : $84.20)
Jun26 = +$0.31 vs +$0.29 (spot @ 07:14 : $83.52)
Jul26 = +$0.76 vs +$0.60

EFP Commentary​

EFP spreads remain firmly positive. This negates any possibility for arb traders to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London at a profit. Will traders drain LBMA silver to send to the COMEX?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $94.78 (less 10% taxes = $85.30)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $90.02 (less 7.2% taxes = $83.54)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $89.37
IBJA PM spot : $86.12 (less 5% duty = $81.81)

Media reports that Indian silver imports are bottlenecked for the last 5 weeks. I'm not seeing Indian prices reflect any supply constraints.

China ​

SGE $94.91(no VAT)
SFE $95.04

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.13


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May 12 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV100K
SLV1.2M
COMEX194K
SFE402K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~24% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX [R] run rate244d
COMEX [E] run rate210d

COMEX 5-8​

600K ozt (18.6t) in Loomis

794K ozt (24.7t) from CNT (491K), Loomis (303K)

45K ozt (1.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi (20K), MT&B (25K)

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 312.1M ozt (79.9M [R], 232.2M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 627K/day

@ 52% [R], run rate = 79.9M / 326K = ~244 (working) days(~12.2 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (232.2M - 85.2M) / 627K = ~234 (working) days(~11.7 months)

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (232.2M / 2) / 627K = ~185 (working) days(~9.3 months)

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg = 210 (working) days(~10.5 months)

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,273
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 26,365,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 6,332,504.71

May withdrawals are now ~24% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 194K ozt net withdrawal grew the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rates shrunk accordingly. May26 EFP spread has been firmly positive for the last two days. Will this slow down withdrawals?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.33% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.3M shares
JPM:1.2M ozt (36.6t)

The SLV vault stock see saw continues. The flow looks like this:

Mon: activity
Tue: 724K
Wed: 207K
Thu: 679K
Fri: 996K
Mon: 1.2M

London vault stock (399.8M ozt) is still holding the line at the level last seen on November 24 when silver spot was ~$52.

We're approaching the middle of May. SLV is about due for the curious mid-month swap.

PSLV​

3,151,405 units
100K ozt (3.1t)
ozt/units ratio 0.33846

PSLV awakens from a ~3 month slumber and adds appreciable vault stock. Unfortunately, they added even more units, so the ozt/units ratio actually went down. They need to add more vault stock to get the ratio back up.

SFE Run Rate​

402K ozt (12.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 26,779,480.00 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 438K/day deposit!

Run rate =

This is the first daily net drain since April 1st.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260509.8913/