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That report shows the number of contracts that will stand for delivery. It doesn't indicate that delivery has already been effected.
... Looks like a lot of Sep contracts are rolling out but I don't know, is 37,000 a large number for a regular delivery month?
I thought somebody farted?They are clearly fighting the Silver price.
I smell some problems cooking.
... Per sluicebrother's chart, ... stand for delivery in September 2024 and silver had 5,099. So yeah, 37,000 would be huge either way if they stood for delivery.
pmbug said:The tweets by @SRSroccoReport and @KingKong9888 got me curious, so I went back through my archive of COMEX silver stock reports and tabulated the withdrawn numbers for July and August and compared that against the number of contracts that stood for delivery. I will note that I missed capturing the data for July 10 and August 27, so my numbers may not be 100% accurate, but should be good enough for government work...
July 2025
* 12,154,240 toz were withdrawn
* 9,344 contracts stood for delivery representing 46,720,000 toz
* withdrawn represented ~26% of contracts that stood for delivery
August 2025
* 2,334,026 toz were withdrawn
* 2,192 contracts stood for delivery representing 10,960,000 toz
* withdrawn represented ~21.3% of contracts that stood for delivery
pmbug said:Back in December/January, when the first round of Trump tariff fears hit the market (before it was clarified that gold and silver bullion were to exempt), EFP spreads blew out and metal flowed heavily from London to New York.
Tariff fears (and EFP spreads) eased on April 2 when exemption policy was clarified. Metal still flowed into COMEX vaults, but LBMA claimed that their vaults were no longer seeing outflows.
Today their isn't any tariff fear driving the metals, but the silver EFP spread is blowing out again. This should encourage bullion banks to move physical metal from London to New York again.
Additionally, the SGE (China) premium to London is also on the rise again albeit less dramatically than the COMEX futures-London spot EFP spread. This should also be encouraging metal to flow from London to China.
It remains an open question as to just how much is left in the well (LBMA vaults). If you trust in their overall vault stock total published once a month number, they claimed to have ~4,642 metric tons of silver free float available at the start of August.
However, SLV and other ETFs have been reporting large increases (over 2,700 metric tons total) to their vault stock this month which is typically just a book entry change of ownership of metal in the London vaults (ie. they have likely been eating at the LBMA's free float all month).
Reports of silver imports from Switzerland appear to be almost two orders of magnitude less than what the ETFs were eating (just ~48 metric tons in July).
The LBMA is due to publish their once a month stock report in a few days. I will be amazed if their report doesn't reflect a drain on the available free float.
It really seems like circumstances are pointing to the LBMA running out of available silver stock in the very near future.
pmbug said:From December '24 through August '25, 106,106,423 ozt of silver have been withdrawn from COMEX vaults while contracts that stood for delivery represented 328,565,000 ozt.
It's possible that some actors that stood for delivery one month without actually withdrawing the silver may have sold the silver in a later month, but if we take the difference, there were 222,458,577 ozt that were "delivered" and not withdrawn.
The COMEX currently has ~200MM ozt in Registered and ~318MM ozt in Eligible vaults. The delivered but not withdrawn Dec to Aug silver represents up to (it's an upper bound) ~43% of the current silver stock in COMEX vaults.
This silver could eventually be withdrawn or resold. Meanwhile, the owner is paying storage (and possibly handling and insurance) fees while the silver sits in the COMEX vault system. Per Grok:
"Yes, if there is no intention to withdraw the silver, rolling the contract forward to a future month is generally more cost-effective than standing for delivery. Rolling involves closing the current position and opening a new one, incurring brokerage commissions (typically $50–$100 total for both legs) and the basis differential (contango or backwardation impact, often equivalent to 0.1–0.5% per month depending on market conditions). However, it allows for leveraged exposure with only margin capital tied up (around 10–20% of contract value). Standing for delivery requires full payment of the contract value (e.g., approximately $200,000 for a 5,000-oz contract at $40/oz), plus one-time delivery-related fees ($300–$500 including broker and exchange charges), and ongoing storage fees (roughly $1.50–$2.50 per contract per month, or about 0.01–0.02% annually of value). This ties up full capital, creating higher opportunity costs (e.g., forgone interest on the full amount), without the benefits of leverage. Delivery might still be preferred in scenarios like backwardation (where rolling could be costly) or to mitigate perceived counterparty risks in futures, but for pure exposure without withdrawal, rolling is more efficient. "
COMEX is much more transparent with their silver stock reporting than the dinosaurs at the LBMA, but their arcane warrant/delivery system still obscures the true picture of available stock in their vault system. Interesting times!
A Section 232 investigation is conducted under the authority of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the effect of imports on the national security. Investigations may be initiated based on an application from an interested party, a request from the head of any department or agency, or may be self-initiated by the Secretary of Commerce.
The Secretary’s report to the President, prepared within 270 days of initiation, focuses on whether the importation of the article in question is in such quantities or under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security. The President can concur or not with the Secretary’s recommendations, and take action to “adjust the imports of an article and its derivatives” or other non-trade related actions as deemed necessary.
...
Tariffs don't jump up and down right at the end of the month. ...
More evidence that the metal demand is All coming from Bankers and Industry while Retail is selling (cause they are Broke and Dumb). ...
... Business is brisk right now. Uh
8:22 incredibly brisk. Uh the uh refineries
8:26 and wholesalers are pinched right now,
8:29 not for funds, but for time. So, we're
8:33 hearing um examples of them expanding
8:36 their operational hours. Uh they're
8:39 gonna one specifically is now working
8:42 through the weekends uh expanding their
8:45 uh normal eight hour days just to handle
8:48 all the incoming material. Ton literally
8:52 thousands of pounds of silver are being
8:54 delivered to these folks on a regular
8:57 basis. Uh one shipment uh the other day
9:00 that the FedEx brought in was 4,000 lbs
9:03 of silver and one ground shipment to a
9:06 refinery. That's one uh and uh it's just
9:11 pouring in. Gold seems to be relatively
9:15 uh par for the course with the amount
9:17 that's coming in and payable ounces. Uh
9:19 for what I'm being told, it's just the
9:21 massive influx of silver that has hit
9:25 the uh refineries and wholesalers. I
9:28 belong to several uh professional forums
9:31 where dealers are uh try to sell or
9:35 attempt to sell uh goods to other
9:37 dealers. Uh and we're seeing uh silver
9:40 lots, just generic 999 bullion lots
9:43 going unsold at 50 cents on their spot.
9:46 That's two other dealers. So that just
9:48 tells you uh what is going on. There's
9:51 such an influx of material and it's
9:54 literally just uh it's just getting
9:55 burned. ...
Ya, right during the Comex delivery days. Specifically, the 7,702 contracts delivered on 8/28. Look at the EFP spreads. It literally started surging the evening of 08/27. I don't have the specific delivery dates going back the rest of that period though. See post #369 above.
pmbug said:Is SLV is the canary in the silver mine?
On August 14, the Saudi central bank's 13F filing disclosed that they had invested in SLV to the tune of 932,000 shares / $30.58MM. This may have sparked additional institutional investment interest in SLV.
On August 18, SLV added a massive 9,172,079 troy ounces (285.2 metric tons) to their vaulted stock. When SLV adds, it really just takes ownership of silver bars already in LBMA vaults, reducing LBMA free float vault stock.
By Sep 2 (from Aug 18), SLV vault stock has run down ~2.5MM troy ounces (~77.75 metric tons) and then back again to be up ~300K troy ounces (~9.3 metric tons).
On Sep 3, @GottliebRo53311 et al report that the Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread for silver (COMEX futures - LBMA spot) is blowing out again (it blew out back in Dec/Jan when the original tariff fears started) due to continued uncertainty regarding tariff exemptions. I dug deep into the issue and found that the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) schedule clearly lists silver as "free" or zero tariff, so I don't believe tariff fears are or were driving the EFP spread, but viral social media chatter can affect markets all the same.
From Sep 3-9, SLV has reported consecutive daily drawdowns on their vaulted stock totaling 9,545,311.20 troy ounces (~296.9 metric tons).
On Sep 5, the LBMA published it's pathetic, monthly silver stock "report" consisting of a single grand total of vaulted silver in the LBMA vault system. Per their report, and public disclosures from ETFs that vault their silver in the LBMA system, we deduce the supposed free float in the LBMA system at ~4,313 metric tons. However, the LBMA has misreported their vault stock by 3,000 tons in the past and there is some reason to wonder about the veracity of their current reporting (see magical metal mystery).
On Sep 8, the pool of available SLV shares for borrowing fell from 1.6MM to a low of 250K before recovering slightly to 400K. The lease rate has spiked above 5%.
It seems reasonable to conclude that the drawdown in SLV vault stock since Sep 3 is indicative of someone raiding SLV for physical silver. They have raided it to the tune of nearly 300 tons so far. That doesn't happen in a market where physical is readily available.
Has the LBMA run dry? Is free float actually zero? Will the FT publish a report on T+## delivery for silver sometime soon?
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