#silversqueeze

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I found BU ASE's but had to pay thru the nose for them so I kept the order small. Its almost like conditions are changing by the hour. Now I can't find Kangaroos because the Perth mint has closed them up. The only advice I have is to hold tight, still buy but buy smart and wait out until the market adjusts. I think one thing is obvious and that is the days of cheap silver are way over.

I have some 90%, some rounds/slabs and a few ASE's, in play. But I'm not over extending even tho I think silver is going for a moon shot. $60 ASE's leave me weak in the knees. I just wish I clicked those Kangaroos a few weeks ago when I had them loaded. 20 of them.
 
pmbug said:
I placed 3 separate orders for American Silver Eagles (ASEs) around the start of the month with a fairly well known online bullion dealer. ...
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Update:

I got emails notifying me that the first two orders were shipped this morning.

I called the dealer to alert them that I had mailed the check for order #3 the same day it was placed. Agent on the phone said if they don't receive it by Monday, they will contact me and give me the opportunity to effect payment via ACH (electronic check). So if the agent was honest, they are not going to stealth cancel the order.
 
I just finished checking with the dealer regarding the status of my final order (#3) with them.

While I was on the phone with the agent orders department, their website updated the status of my order from pending payment to payment clearing. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that they received my check and sent it for deposit right as the price of silver dropped below my buy price.

I'm glad that I'm going to receive the last batch of ASEs that I ordered from them. But I'll probably bite the bullet and pay the extra premium at a different dealer that I trust is holding inventory in stock next time I decide to buy a lot. When supply is constrained, you pay a premium for surety of sale.
 
I don't like ASE's all that much to pay up for those. Any hint as to who this big dealer is? I've had my concerns about the biggest that starts with a A for some time now.
 
The newer guys probably don't understand hedging as well and have problems with volatility. Large numbers and that can eat any profit margin really, really, quickly.
 
From what I've been able to read the silver squeeze came from India. The high gold prices meant the Indians diversified their spending into Silver for the upcoming (what is going on now) festival; Diwali.

True, there are other factors that complicate the pricing of silver. Multi-year supply deficits, strong industrial demand, U.S. credit risks, U.S. / China trade issues just to name a few off the top of my head. But the demand that broke LBMA came from India.

So with the festival under way the demand dropped. Which brought the price down, and probably to the high 30's to low 40's.

That's short term.

Long term (5+ years) should see silver strengthen. Though given the size of the silver market this strengthening will be reflected
in pricing that is choppy. Nothing new there.

Or... I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. Would be fun if somehow silver went to $100-$140. But I consider such forecasts to be more akin to cheerleading. Yes it "could" happen, but such events would be so extreme that forces outside the silver market would become involved; and not in a good way for investors or speculators.

Anyhow, it was fun.
 
Indian demand did not wane. They ran out of metal. They are experiencing a physical supply shock.
 
The bankers play to win. While everyone else was going long, the bankers were shorting and now they are getting paid.

On the internet anyone can say anything and a lot has been said the last month or so. When the irrational exuberance sets in and all the big names in the market start calling for incredible prices, we are close to a top. Every single time.

I've been wrong to many times lately to make any predictions. So, I just post the 20,50 and 200 DMA's and see what happens. Au getting close to the 20 which sits around 4k. AG broke easily through the 20 and if it's going to the 50 that's around 44.

Prices worldwide can do what they will do but if nothing is available from London to deliver it doesn't really matter all that much. You can see that in todays prices. India is basically getting a 20% discount and still not buying. If prices continue to go up then I could see someone stepping up and taking a chance and get the discount and wait the 30days.

Here in the US the threat of higher premiums and shortages is not scaring the sellers away. In fact it is 3 times what it was just a couple of months ago. You even see more and more selling at Tims store on the yankee stacking channel. There is a place in the next state over that has 2 shops. Over the summer 50k a month is about what they were taking in in scrap and a little bit of regular production. Now it's 3-4 times that and mostly regular production stuff.

It was a nice run and of course very exciting but I'm not selling or buying right now. If we are still in the 40's or even 30's in Dec then I will probably look to add a few more ounces.

What will be interesting going forward is to see how low they can bring this down. The US Gov says they wants this to be a critical metal and to start stockpiling it. It being AG. No need for them to buy it at 50 when JPM can acquire it for them at much lower prices. You can be sure that if the US gov wants it they will be 1st in line at the refineries until further notice. Since we don't have enough Tomahawk missiles rn my guess is they want some silver.

Anyone know what the refining capacity is for the US?
 
I sold off maybe 20% of my silver when silver went over 50. Of course, that's spot price. What I got was considerably less and in the upper 40's range. Still...profit is profit. If silver drops back into the 20's I'll buy back in.

I think the chances that we see silver in the twenties are much greater then we never see silver drop back into the twenties. So, I placed my bets accordingly. It's not sexy but it does tend to incrementally increase my silver holdings over time.

BTW, retail silver shops REALLY don't like buying back silver at unprecedently high prices. Margins were definitely spreading out the higher we went. Figure if silver climbed high enough, nobody in the retail sector would buy silver, period. What good is high prices if you can't sell?

I guess you could sell to refiners except all the refiners were choking on the amount of silver they received. The market definitely got wierd.
 
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LBMA didn't get that much of the silver ocean back. I expect this dip to be short lived.
 
We got the smackdown from the top rope. The market is going to be choppy for awhile.

We have another 2 rate cuts this year and earnings for the miners this week.

I can see how the rest of the world gets pissed off when the US manipulates markets for their own benefit. Maybe the chins will corner the float making COMEX spot prices irrelevant? What is to say 30 days from now the longs can get delivery? Supply must be really tight to crash everything like it did.
 
“However, a significant wave of metal shipments—estimated at over 1,000 tons—arrived from the U.S. and China over the past week.”

Over the past week, the withdrawals from COMEX and SFE/SGE were:

COMEX - Since 10/6 => 27.1M ozt (~843 metric tons)
SFE/SGE - Since 10/10 => 14.5M ozt (~453 metric tons)
 
Glad I bought in years ago. They can't manipulate my 4x gains away.
 

Don't sell money for fiat, IMO that's not a good move. Paper contracts, trading, miners etc. are something to trade. I'm not selling an oz of physical unless i absolutely must. I will use Silver as money to buy goods in the future when the time comes.
 

The comex price rising > China prices was a pretty good signal. They were planning a rugpull and switched to pushing things higher, to create FOMO and bagholders as usual.
 
I don't sell money for fiat. I trade in and out of fiat and bullion.

These trades have never been more than a third of my bullion holdings.

Its just that, when the silver market moves, it typically moves into over-bought territory.

The same when silver corrects, it flings itself into over-sold territory.

Even being skinned by the retail shops as I come-and-go it's possible to make tiny profit.

This process between buying and selling can literally take years. It's not something
I could make a living doing. Consider it a hobby to keep my interest in the bullion game.

I'm fully onboard with the idea of bullion being a form of fiscal insurance in case of economic calamity.

Its just that, in times of calamity, I see opportunities to make a...well, not a buck, but maybe a profit of some sort.

"I believe a man has the right to dig his own grave and I have the right to sell shovels."
 
I am definitely more pessimistic. Like Argentsum, i think chances silver goes back into twenties are considerably higher than it doesn’t.

Why did it go up in 2011? Why did it go up now? Not much has changed except a lot more FRNs printed.
 
Never gonna see $20 or $30 again. Heck, I'm trying to buy this little dip and I can't even get it under $50... only junk silver available below $50.
 
Voodoo said:
Never gonna see $20 or $30 again. Heck, I'm trying to buy this little dip and I can't even get it under $50... only junk silver available below $50.
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All good, i think we will. Covid had it practically in single digits a few years ago. I posted a friendly guessing game
 
Since the refineries are loaded to the gills with silver what do they do with it all once the price drops or are they fully hedged so can sell at any price?
 
It goes to COMEX or if overseas never to return.
 
Still can't find much available under $50... junk silver is the only buy right now IMO. SD has some rounds above $48 which was about the next best. Bars were scarce. Oh and Platinum is stupid. Prices didn't even change with premiums like $300 over spot.
 
Probably a lot of retailers, small ones, bought their current inventory at $50-plus. Selling at less-than restocking cost, is a good way to not have a business in the future.

They're probably counting on the price going back up. That's not foolish, but it all depends on how much effort is being put towards distorting price.
 
I was checking mostly online dealers, the largest of them. Bars are very scarce. Apmex had 1 kilo bar in stock and they were over $50 / oz. Everything else was preorder with Nov and Dec estimated dates (ya hard pass on those).
 
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London's Serious Silver Shortage Continues

“This sucker could go down.”
jensendavid.substack.com

 
At my LCP $50 seems to be pasted on everybodys forehead. Thats actually not bad for some type BU coinage and comes in cheaper then on-line orders. I bought ASE's and Krugers for $50 each and then you have them in hand without waiting a month and paying FedEX. I bought a wonderful 10 oz 2026 Perth Koo-koo for $500 that you'd have a hard time even finding today. There, I just found one for $552
 
OK, this is the FIRST explanation I've heard about WHY the silver refiners are SO backed up.

It is all about the Dept of Defense and trying to make silver. They need 4-5 Nine purity silver and are running out of Nitric Acid.

 
KnowWhy said:
My Christmas gift order is delayed from sdbullion. Interesting their “computer” can’t keep track of purchase allocations. They sold stuff they did not have. Again. View attachment 17364
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Shit.... I liked them too. Hopefully it was on just one mint stuff because I know a bunch of mints are reneging on sales as well.
 
Good interviews

SECRET SILVER REFINERY SHORTAGE EXPOSED! Dealer Reveals Shocking Reason NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT!​



$350,000 in Vegas: The Coin Presses That WILL Change Everything!​

 
It makes some sense too about the military needing the silver for a bunch of missiles. However, where were they getting 4-5 nine purity Silver before? Each additional nine in purity adds an order of magnitude in difficulty (give or take) so its a pretty big deal. So a refiner would definitely prioritize the highest purity silver they could get as a starting point and would hate 90%.

Also, if this is actually the truth. We are like days-weeks away from Unobtanium...
 
I wonder why they need silver at such high purity. Wouldn't gold be a better alternative?
 
Missiles are just the beginning. The Military operates on the edge of advanced technology and the military/Industrial complex's need for silver "and remember I'm talking about the entire worlds" is all encompassing. It is, quite simply, "Huge" !
 
Voodoo said:
...
Also, if this is actually the truth. ...
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I don't buy it. I think the silver for missiles/military demand is an overblown narrative. It's pretty clear that refineries around the world (the western world anyway) are working hard to produce good delivery metal for London (and Perth in Australia making kilo bars for China/SGE/SFE).
 
If the Samsung (and others) new solid state battery is a success. Then a lot more silver will be needed.
 
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