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Yep, volatility is waking up here and we should embrace it because it's gonna get crazier, and better, for us. I actually really like today's price action. I will try and add some miners around that 180 dMA $30.46 and the cup and handle support at ~$30.

... Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING.
“Total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have continued to decline this year despite rising spot prices,” Manthey wrote. “Although global gold ETF outflows continued in October, they were at a slower pace than in September. Year-to-date, global outflows totalled $13 billion, equivalent to a 225-tonne fall in holdings.”

She said that data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed the lion’s share of these outflows came from European and North American funds, while investment demand in other parts of the world was stronger.

“Looking into 2024, we believe we will see a resurgence of investor interest in the precious metal and a return to net inflows given higher gold prices as US interest rates fall,” Manthey said.

Other areas of the market have already shifted, however. “[N]et-long positioning, reflecting sentiment in the gold market, turned positive in the second half of October as spot prices surged amid the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict,” she noted. “COMEX net-long positionings rose 137% month-on-month to 29 October, supported by the rise in geopolitical concerns.”

When compared to positioning in 2019 and 2020, she said that overall positioning in 2023 looks neutral. “This suggests that there is still plenty of room for speculators to add to their net long in 2024 and push gold prices even higher.”


Was running errands this morning so I missed the action but I agree with Voodoo. Looks like a break and retest to me as well and will play it as such unless the key levels don't hold.

Here's The TRUTH About 2024 (No One Is Expecting This)​

I'm trying something new, actually trading my chart's lol. Added a GDX call and added a second call Zebra I think its called.

Just in case someone wants the details but more for my memory. The idea is a cheaper stock replacement strategy that is similar to 100 shares of stock and lower time decay.

I bought 2 $28 GDX calls for $5.29 total (GDX was about 30.33). So that's 4.66 intrinsic and only 63 cents of extrinsic. Selling 1 $31 call against it for 0.89 which is all extrinsic value. So really 26 cents intrinsic value. All in January.
The gold market is seeing renewed buying momentum as the U.S. labor market lost significant momentum last month, according to the latest data from private-sector payrolls processor ADP.

Wednesday, ADP said that 103,000 jobs were created last month. The data significantly missed expectations as economists were looking for job gains of around 130,000. At the same time October’s employment data was revised lower to 106,000 jobs, down slightly from the initial estimate of 113,000.
The disappointing economic data is helping to support gold prices after Monday’s significant blowoff top rally that saw prices drop sharply after hitting all-time highs above $2,100 an ounce. February gold futures last traded at $2,048.40 an ounce, up 0.59% on the day.

According to some analysts, gold is benefiting as the latest employment data fits with the growing expectations that a slowing economy and cooling labor market will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. Markets see a roughly 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in March.


Who knows but I think it is time to be cautious. You can give a million reasons for the monster rejection early this week but it was a rejection to be respected. Not playing.
If you chanced to speak to any old timers (long since dead) about the 1930's they said "There was just no money."

I never could understand what they meant by that, but I think we're about to experience it again.

It was planned from the gitgo. Easy money created the Roaring 20's... then they pulled the plug on the money supply by calling loans due which cause a cascade in stocks as 'investors' sold stock to repay said loans.

The Money Supply Continues Its Biggest Collapse Since The Great Depression​

WEDNESDAY, DEC 06, 2023 - 11:00 AM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Money supply growth fell again in October, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. October's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.

Since April 2021, money supply growth has slowed quickly, and since November, we've been seeing the money supply repeatedly contract year over year. The last time the year-over-year (YOY) change in the money supply slipped into negative territory was in November 1994. At that time, negative growth continued for fifteen months, finally turning positive again in January 1996.

Money-supply growth has now been negative for twelve months in a row. During October 2023, the downturn continued as YOY growth in the money supply was at –9.33 percent. That's up slightly from September's rate decline which was of –10.49 percent, and was far below October 2022's rate of 2.14 percent. With negative growth now falling near or below –10 percent for the eighth month in a row, money-supply contraction is the largest we've seen since the Great Depression. Prior to this year, at no other point for at least sixty years has the money supply fallen by more than 6 percent (YoY) in any month.

That's QT in action. The Fed is trying to get it's balance sheet back under control.
This could be considered the third down day for GDX / miners. So I would expect that to be the biggest correction. This would mean we need to see green tomorrow.
It was not a rejection. It set new highs and a new high well above the old high.
Well if you don’t wanna see capitulation and people jumping off roofs before Christmas, you better make sure Au doesn’t go to $1760 and Ag to $18.
Not saying anything will happen but the PPT probably hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.
Well if you don’t wanna see capitulation and people jumping off roofs before Christmas, you better make sure Au doesn’t go to $1760 and Ag to $18.
Not saying anything will happen but the PPT probably hasn’t thrown in the towel yet.

This right here indicates to me the typical early Bull market mentality and why I've missed too many bull markets already. Could it happen? sure, but I don't think that is likely at all now.
Pretty typical to see gyrations at a major breakout level like we are witnessing in gold. Might mean that we need to move sideways for a couple weeks and don’t get a serious move up until January. Just my thoughts
Nobody out of a job in Delaware... nor Kansas

Wall Street reaction (anticipating the Fed to have justification to cut rates):

Julian Brigden - co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners said:
“I think for gold to really break out you have got to see the equity market break down in the U.S., you've got to see the Fed then truly step back and start to cut rates and the dollar to go [down]. That I think would set you up for this solid breakout that we want.”

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 199,000 last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly figure was above the market consensus estimates of 184,000.

At the same time the report also noted that the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October. Economists were expecting to see an unchanged reading.
The latest employment data is impacting interest rates expectations. Market projections for a March rate cut have pared back slightly even if they remain above 50%.

Some analysts have said that the labor market could continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening bias as it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week. The U.S. central bank has been clear that it needs to see some lack in the labor market before it is confident that it has inflation under control.

If you don't think the silver miners were sold out check the prices today. Silver just over 23 bucks and the shares barely down at all.
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