The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Zed

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Just a note for anyone reading the thread that doesn't know me. I think that its a small group and most do know me, but regardless...

1. Australian based, as such I trade our local markets for fun and profit... it is all I do.
2. I believe that success in the markets is mostly due to back office 'risk management'
3. I'm not trying to be Mr. Perfect and pick every trade correctly. I don't care what your system is if you bat over 70% you'd be richer than god if you manage risk well.
4. IMO Anyone claiming a really high win rate is most probably a liar. I'm probably closer to the 50% mark, mebe 60%.
5. I trade mid to long term - it suits my lifestyle, temperament and market access.

Given I believe that risk management is key to success making short term calls on specific stocks when there is a chance people reading will trade on it isn't such a good thing to do. IMO you must own the risk and the process while understanding your trading temperament before placing your money in the market. When you take full responsibility for that then you might be ready to trade. Following anyone's calls blindly is a path to failure, I'm not going to try to temp anyone down that path. I do what I do win/lose/draw, so long as it is just impacting me my conscience is clear.

So..... from me you will get broader background stuff on the things that effect gold and silver. That's the overlap in interest here, I will point out what I see and believe but I'm not going to make open/close trading calls. That is up to you. Sure I will do some basic T/A stuff, price projections etc on Gold, Silver, USD, the ratio and mebe bonds but that isn't my trading system and that isn't always reflective of what I do. Never forget that I am trading in AUD on Australian markets and that the world looks different through that lens.

I'm not here for dick measuring or a pissing contest so if we head off down that track I will exit stage left.

Welcome to the Fringe!
Good Luck.
 

Zed

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Some Marty for open minded Fringe dwellers...



Check out the comments...

There is a guy who spends his life hitting out @ Marty. Is he right?
 

Lancers32

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Some Marty for open minded Fringe dwellers...



Check out the comments...

There is a guy who spends his life hitting out @ Marty. Is he right?

Glad someone has him on,
 
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Zed

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AUD Gold against USD Gold.


Same deal... the world is buying the gold that the US is selling. There isn't that much free gold that USD gold will not react in time.

Erection time? Late November seems credible to me. December delivery looks like it could be strong.
 

Lancers32

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Some Marty for open minded Fringe dwellers...



Check out the comments...

There is a guy who spends his life hitting out @ Marty. Is he right?


Funny thing I heard the other day on some board somewhere. Everybody who even remotely follows Armstrong knows he thinks everything flows East and that China takes over the World by the early 2030's. So the other day I hear that he said China is finished. Now by that I guess he means at this time since whatever problems the West has they currently have to. Housing yada yada.
 

Zed

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Watch Deutsche Bank for signs of Europe cracking, ***it should*** blow up if things get properly stressful. For now it looks supported.
 

Lancers32

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You're here now then? Saw your post over at GIM?
 
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Zed

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Funny thing I heard the other day on some board somewhere. Everybody who even remotely follows Armstrong knows he thinks everything flows East and that China takes over the World by the early 2030's. So the other day I hear that he said China is finished. Now by that I guess he means at this time since whatever problems the West has they currently have to. Housing yada yada.

I dunno... I think that IF this BRIC currency comes to the fore we are going to see some sort of Frankenstein global system for a while with the US having to deal with the relative hardness of the BRIC currency in order to stay relevant. At the same time the lack of financial depth and trust in the BRICs will hinder them and keep the US firmly in the game. I'd say you will see some intense competition inside the BRICs to dominate and it will not surprise me at all to see India come from behind as a new center.

It all hinges on how this BRIC commodity based currency rolls out. Russia & China have a SHIT to of gold so although it's not talked about it I think that card will be played at the last moment. Yes China is screwed... but take away reserve currency privileges and so are you guys. The US has fantastic natural advantage but will the people stepup and 'believe' again... national attitude seems to be shot. Face it, the world is a mess... we are trying to pick the least ugliest at the bar. As the night wears on perspective will change.
 

Zed

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+ they seem to make better use of the board features and are not shy about asking for the $ to run the place in a sensible way. Probably less of a target than GIM as well, politically speaking. I like Scorpio but he is one eccentric fish!
 

Zed

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Great, it's only a decade or two away then...

Same for the under-investment in most commodities over the last 20 years! We are going to have to fast track mine development, takes 10 years to bring most anything online these days.
 

Lancers32

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Re Marty's comments about the possibility of no election in 2024...




Saw that hard to believe but so are the last 2 1/2 years. So anything is possible. Funny the Democrats whined about Trump saying he wouldn't leave if not re elected now we get the Potato for 8 years? They better find a few more body doubles cause this one looks like it's all worn out.
 

Zed

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Saw that hard to believe but so are the last 2 1/2 years. So anything is possible. Funny the Democrats whined about Trump saying he wouldn't leave if not re elected now we get the Potato for 8 years? They better find a few more body doubles cause this one looks like it's all worn out.

Pre covid I'd have scoffed at the idea, now I'm not so sure about much. Leadership globally scared the crap outta me... I can see a French style revolt in places if this keeps up.
 

dpong

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2. I believe that success in the markets is mostly due to back office 'risk management'
I strongly agree with this statement. I run a weekly non-discretionary trading system that relies heavily on risk management. I believe this to be the keys to the city. I'll share more as time goes by.
 

Lancers32

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Test. I didn't pay yet do you guys see a DM feature like a private conversation tab like at GIM.


 

dpong

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Test. I didn't pay yet do you guys see a DM feature like a private conversation tab like at GIM.



I can't seem to start a DM. Do I have to pay first? I haven't come across that bit of info yet.

[Maybe we just need points? Dunno.]
 
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pmbug

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This site is running on the same forum software that GIM2 uses. Private messages/conversations work here same as there, but permissions might be restricted for new members (to prevent PM spam which is a real pain to moderate). Shouldn't be any requirement to pay for access - just might need to participate a bit before it becomes available.
 

Zed

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This guy was never right in the head.



Wouldn't you love to know who the real power is behind him? Who is pulling those strings and how long have they been pulling strings for? US politics isn't really my thing, so maybe you know. For me it begs the question does America actually know the name of the people in charge?
 

Lancers32

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Wouldn't you love to know who the real power is behind him? Who is pulling those strings and how long have they been pulling strings for? US politics isn't really my thing, so maybe you know. For me it begs the question does America actually know the name of the people in charge?


Same people that run Australia.
 

Zed

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However the dramatic drop in pressure to only 7 bar (~60 m of water) suggests that the pipeline may have filled with seawater. If that’s the case, it may be that the pipeline will require such extensive repairs that restoring it to operability is cost prohibitive.

Prior to this leak, the only thing preventing flow through the pipeline was a regulatory block placed in February by German Chancellor Scholz at the behest of the US. Earlier today, protests demanding the pipeline be opened erupted in Germany. The timing is simply incredible.

 
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