The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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little bit O history

"This Is Unlike Anything That We've Seen Before" - Jim Rickards​

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I like Jim Richards but he is a bit of a ‘sky is falling’ clickbaiter .
He may well be correct in his reading of situations but he seems to lean towards the worst case when reporting.

The pattern seems to be that the big boys club together and pump liquidity into the problem and treasury/ central banks cover it .
For the last 16 years we’ve been in this situation and so far the show has continued.
Yes, we’ve cheerfully agreed that this time it’s different. but is it ……
 
This guy does a good breakdown of the situation. Says rotation is coming into the sector now.
 
sure they are fighting for existence. But in the end its just gonna look like a breakout and retest. A retest that probably doesn't even get that close to the breakout area ~$32.50. I'm gonna sell a put spread in 40 mins and maybe use that to buy a call on SLV.
 
Looking at the chart at the forum top it looks as if they keep trying to beat down the noble metal but it's looking more like a super ball these days.
 
I'm gonna wait to 11am today to see if the double bottom holds but ya that still looks good. Especially after two days of attempting to slam it down on the open. Not even getting a real retest of the $32.50 breakout.
 
NEM getting hammered. Making 600 an oz over last year numbers but still being pummeled. Missed estimates by 2 cents but caps was up 277 million. They did produce 2.1 million ounces last quarter though so around 2 billion in production. Seems way oversold to me but to be honest I haven't looked at the balance sheet or any deeper than the headlines.
 
anyone hear of this?

Shorts estimated to be $1.3 Billion underwater on silver

Which five banks are at risk??

"Silver prices have experienced a significant increase, rising over 6% to exceed $33.6 per ounce.

This unexpected surge has put five U.S. banks at risk of substantial financial losses due to their large short positions in the metal.

This amounts to approximately 707.9 million ounces, nearly equaling a year’s global silver production.

With silver prices increasing by $1.84 per ounce, these short positions are now estimated to be underwater by $1.3 billion.

"This behavior undermines market integrity and could have far-reaching consequences for both the financial sector and industries that depend on stable silver prices," said The Silver Academy.

The concentration of these short positions among just five U.S. banks has raised concerns among industry analysts. Critics argue that this level of short-selling artificially depresses silver prices, despite strong industrial demand from sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels...."

 
Pretty sure Ted Butler has said that for the last 20 years. /jk

Yeah, I see folks claiming the shorts are underwater and squeeze is coming. I'm still
 
I did read that last week and found it strange that there wasn't a huge short squeeze on this last run up. Volume was only ip a little bit and no way they covered 140,000 plus contracts in that little run.
I haven't heard how much JPM is holding in physical lately. Last I heard was several years ago and they had 600 million ounces on hand. If so they would just have to give up the metals. So, if they had puts at say 30, they would get paid the 30 on delivery but would miss out on the rest of the move higher.
 
That is totally expected and usually happens when the shorts Need/Want to do a rinse. However, I don't think we have many speculative longs in there right now. It's all physical demand out East.

However, raising margin requirements would also require the shorts to put up more margin, in theory. I wonder if that affects them much at all.
 
Let's take a look at some charts and some hillbilly TA.
1st up is silver daily chart. We made that high of 35.07 last week then we had a big red reversal candle. However we never got a confirmation of that reversal.
When we hit that high we were also pretty extended off the 20DMA (The blue dashed line) Whenever that happens we do normally pull back or trade sideways to burn off the overbought conditions. So far that seems to be happening. Today was a pretty strong move on decent volume but we need to get over last weeks high to negate the reversal candle. Some sideways action here would be welcome until the 20 day can catch up a bit.

 
Now onto gold.
Still trading in that strong uptrend channel but right at the top of it. Similar to gold we had that high last week and then a reversal candle. After todays big green candle we negated that reversal candle from last week. The problem I see is we are right at the top of the trading channel. That channel was started back in July. So again, some sideways action would be welcome here until the 20 day catches up but at some point we will trade back to the 20. Either with sideways consolidation or a pullback to that 20 day.

Extending that channel out to the end of the year it looks like 2950 is the top of the channel and sometime around mid Jan the top of the channel hits 3000. Thats not to say that's how this will trade but it is a possibility.
Another possibility is something breaks loose on the world stage and sends gold parabolic. cilvil war, WW3 or something crashes the dollar.
Bottom of the channel is around 2675 depending on how fast we went there. IMO not enough to buy any puts to bet on it.
Thats my take on things anyway.
 

This is your pilot speaking. Please fasten your seatbelts and return your tray tables to the upright and locked positions. We're expecting some turbulence ahead.
 
pmbug said:

This is your pilot speaking. Please fasten your seatbelts and return your tray tables to the upright and locked positions. We're expecting some turbulence ahead.
Click to expand...

There are SO SO many red flags here that if you own any SMCI you are completely beyond help. NVDA was always the thing that this was used to pump, (obviously just w wag IMO). Time for me to look at NVDA puts. It's also not too late to pull the rip cord, lots of room left to fall.

 
I thought the FED lowered rates?

Interest Rates Are Soaring... How High Will They Go?!​

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Jobs report came in under expectations and that's fueling Wall St. hopes that the Fed will be encouraged to cut rates in Nov. I'm guessing it's going to be a green day...
 
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