The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

searcher

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Roku has $487 million of cash and cash equivalents in uninsured deposits at failed Silicon Valley Bank, the streaming media company said in an filing on Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

About 26% of Roku’s $1.9 billion in cash was deposited with SVB, which was placed into receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. midday Friday.

Roku shares fell over 4% in extended trading on the news.

 

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FYI, SVB bank failure story has a dedicated thread now:

 

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The biggest bank failure since the 2008 great financial crisis is creating new bullish momentum in the gold market as analysts expect safe-haven demand to drive prices higher next week.

At the same time, the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows that retail investors remain bullish on gold in the near term even as they maintain a conservative price outlook.
...
This week, 21 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Among the participants, 16 analysts, or 76%, were bullish on gold in the near term. At the same time, three analysts, or 14%, were bearish for next week and two analysts, or 10%, saw prices trading sideways.

Meanwhile, 571 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 340 respondents, or 60%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 146, or 26%, said it would be lower, while 85 voters, or 15%, were neutral in the near term.

Kitco Gold Survey
Wall Street
Bullish 76%
Bearish 14%
Neutral 10%

VS
Main Street
Bullish 60%
Bearish 26%
Neutral 15%
...


The report doesn't make it clear, but I have to assume that the polls were conducted before the SVB news broke.
 

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Barrick in the same mode... suggesting that current gold stock postions will be liquidated initially to meet any margin call despite what gold might be doing. First the baby goes out with the bath water, then we look for the kid later and kiss and make up. The carnage will all depend on how fat the gold stock long position is. IMO this isn't gold stocks 2007 where everything including gold stocks where price for perfection. Might just be a Friday nerves thing given the back drop... could be over as soon as Monday. Vatching Vaiting....

GOLD_2023-03-12_11-15-32.png
 

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This is not your typical 'risk off' picture... maybe there is a sea change and gold plays a leading role this time.
Can you elaborate on what you mean just a bit here, Z?
 
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Zed

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Can you elaborate on what you mean just a bit here, Z?

Typically we'd get the flight into bonds as has happened aka the yield dump. We'd not see much if anything in gold normally followed by a sell off and we'd see the USD rally both of which have not happened, gold is up and the DXY is down. US gold stocks have not been bought hard given golds move, this is a more typical reaction. Selling stocks buying bonds is a normal risk off move. So it's a bit confused at the moment.

It kinda looks like the US locals have responded as per normal play book, sell everything and buy UST's but it looks like international behavior has changed somewhat. At the moment it kinda looks like OS money is buying gold more than buying the USD and in turn UST's. I guess this might be legacy of the way Biden treated Russia, big OS money is now factoring in the possibility of hostile monetary actions by the US, hence stronger gold and softer DXY. The DXY is mainly the Euro against the USD, but that is a lot of $$$$$, currencies like ours are still soft against the USD. We are looking @ a potential monthly all time high in gold if this price sticks into the end of month. Also there is a question of what is happening in eurodollar land (as in USD circulating outside the USA, it is bigger than internal flows) It would appear that those dollars are also staying offshore for now. Again you have to wonder if it is due to trust being lost in the administration of the system after the Russian thing.

AUD Gold Monthly.

XAUAUD_2023-03-12_12-30-53.png


Who knows, normal service may resume over the next week but for now it's looking a tad different.
 
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...but you don't seem to understand. GIM has closed, now it is mandatory for gold to instantly double in price.

Go ask Alanis, she knows...

That is just how these things work.

For god sake man get with the program.
I get a database error when I try to go over there now. Is that the end of GIM2?
 

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Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?
 

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Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?

If they bail them out where do they stop?

+ It sends the message that contagion is the real risk here which may just destabilize the system they are trying to stabilize.

It could have a very counterintuitive effect.

I dunno!?
 

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If they bail them out where do they stop?

+ It sends the message that contagion is the real risk here which may just destabilize the system they are trying to stabilize.

It could have a very counterintuitive effect.

I dunno!?

Either way this isn't ending well. Another $70 bank SBNY went poof today as well.
 

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Reading between the lines. Back room discussions by Treasury/FED trying to hold everything together. Some talk on the web suggesting offers to buy distressed debt/instruments etc. Will have to wait and see what happens

Bail in for bond holders and shareholders?

Some form of bail out for deposit holders?
 

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They are all getting bailed out not to the tune of 250k per account but every single penny.
 

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Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?
75:1 should be easily doable at current prices/ratios. You might even get to 75 with a less expensive sovereign coin such as a Canadian Maple. It has the potential to be an attractive play, especially if you don't mind sitting on them for a while.
 

Voodoo

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Reading between the lines. Back room discussions by Treasury/FED trying to hold everything together. Some talk on the web suggesting offers to buy distressed debt/instruments etc. Will have to wait and see what happens

Bail in for bond holders and shareholders?

Some form of bail out for deposit holders?

Stockholders are definitely getting ZERO

Bondholder may get some

Deposit holders look like they might luck out.
 

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Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?
My understanding is you won't get to swap one for the other without some two way vig action in there.

They'll get their pound of flesh no matter what.

If I grok this correctly... You sell them your gold for cash and buy their silver for cash.

Doesn't that create a taxable event?
 

Voodoo

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My understanding is you won't get to swap one for the other without some two way vig action in there.

They'll get their pound of flesh no matter what.

If I grok this correctly... You sell them your gold for cash and buy their silver for cash.

Doesn't that create a taxable event?

These are technically not mine (family member but I basically did it for them). If they want to create a taxable event this is a non-starter and a clear no-go.
 
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