The Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[searcher]

Roku has $487 million of cash and cash equivalents in uninsured deposits at failed Silicon Valley Bank, the streaming media company said in an filing on Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

About 26% of Roku’s $1.9 billion in cash was deposited with SVB, which was placed into receivership by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. midday Friday.

Roku shares fell over 4% in extended trading on the news.

Roku says 26% of its cash reserves are stuck in Silicon Valley Bank

Around $487 million of Roku's cash reserves are stuck at Silicon Valley Bank, the streaming media company said Friday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lancers32]

Is this a problem? Aksin for a fren

They still say that'll leave a mark?

 

[pmbug]

FYI, SVB bank failure story has a dedicated thread now:

Silicon Valley Bank failure

This story is big enough that it warrants it's own thread. The Fed's rising rates set us up the bomb:... If you’re just catching up, here’s what happened: Silicon Valley Bank lost $1.8 billion in the sale of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that it had invested in, owing to rising...

www.pmbug.com

 

[Lancers32]

so, only 151 billion is uninsured. Not that much really when it comes to banks. A rounding error when it comes to fed gov. If they are deemed TBTF then 200 billion shows up on their books by Monday. If not then depositors take a hit.

I suggest the bank get a loan from Zelensky.

 

[pmbug]

The biggest bank failure since the 2008 great financial crisis is creating new bullish momentum in the gold market as analysts expect safe-haven demand to drive prices higher next week.

At the same time, the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows that retail investors remain bullish on gold in the near term even as they maintain a conservative price outlook.
...
This week, 21 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Among the participants, 16 analysts, or 76%, were bullish on gold in the near term. At the same time, three analysts, or 14%, were bearish for next week and two analysts, or 10%, saw prices trading sideways.

Meanwhile, 571 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 340 respondents, or 60%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 146, or 26%, said it would be lower, while 85 voters, or 15%, were neutral in the near term.

Kitco Gold Survey
Wall Street
Bullish 76%
Bearish 14%
Neutral 10%

VS
Main Street
Bullish 60%
Bearish 26%
Neutral 15%
...

Biggest bank failure since 2008 drives gold sentiment higher, could hit $1,900 next week

Bulls or Bears? Wall Street vs. Main Street puts together leading analysts and regular metals investors to find out where they think gold is headed next week. Picked up and quoted by other leading news organizations, this feature has become a cornerstone for the industry and an indicative benchmark.

www.kitco.com

The report doesn't make it clear, but I have to assume that the polls were conducted before the SVB news broke.

 

[Lancers32]

From Luongo.

Goldtent TA Paradise » CENTRAL BANK WAR !!

goldtadise.com

 

[Zed]

Instant flight to safety... 10 Year Yield Daily

 

[Zed]

Gold in risk off mode... contrary to the typical 'gold is risk' Wall St mentality.

 

[Zed]

GDX not buying into the risk off trade, sold down into the close.

 

[Zed]

Barrick in the same mode... suggesting that current gold stock postions will be liquidated initially to meet any margin call despite what gold might be doing. First the baby goes out with the bath water, then we look for the kid later and kiss and make up. The carnage will all depend on how fat the gold stock long position is. IMO this isn't gold stocks 2007 where everything including gold stocks where price for perfection. Might just be a Friday nerves thing given the back drop... could be over as soon as Monday. Vatching Vaiting....

 

[Zed]

PS> If GIM actually closes Sunday we all know that the gold market will fly on Monday... it is preordained by the powers of the universe, the great priests of "funny shit happens".

Alanis, Alanis! Where are you now?


LOL.

 

[Zed]

DXY - Not seeing risk off inflows. Hmmmmm...

 

[Zed]

This is not your typical 'risk off' picture... maybe there is a sea change and gold plays a leading role this time.

 

[savvydon]

This is not your typical 'risk off' picture... maybe there is a sea change and gold plays a leading role this time.

Can you elaborate on what you mean just a bit here, Z?

 

[Zed]

Can you elaborate on what you mean just a bit here, Z?

Typically we'd get the flight into bonds as has happened aka the yield dump. We'd not see much if anything in gold normally followed by a sell off and we'd see the USD rally both of which have not happened, gold is up and the DXY is down. US gold stocks have not been bought hard given golds move, this is a more typical reaction. Selling stocks buying bonds is a normal risk off move. So it's a bit confused at the moment.

It kinda looks like the US locals have responded as per normal play book, sell everything and buy UST's but it looks like international behavior has changed somewhat. At the moment it kinda looks like OS money is buying gold more than buying the USD and in turn UST's. I guess this might be legacy of the way Biden treated Russia, big OS money is now factoring in the possibility of hostile monetary actions by the US, hence stronger gold and softer DXY. The DXY is mainly the Euro against the USD, but that is a lot of $$$$$, currencies like ours are still soft against the USD. We are looking @ a potential monthly all time high in gold if this price sticks into the end of month. Also there is a question of what is happening in eurodollar land (as in USD circulating outside the USA, it is bigger than internal flows) It would appear that those dollars are also staying offshore for now. Again you have to wonder if it is due to trust being lost in the administration of the system after the Russian thing.

AUD Gold Monthly.




Who knows, normal service may resume over the next week but for now it's looking a tad different.

 

[Lancers32]

Wouldn't get too excited about the metals just yet gents.

 

[foolsgold]

Quote...
The FDIC may end up having to waive the deposit insurance cap and make everybody whole to avoid a broader run.
link - https://www.semafor.com/article/03/...-to-buy-deposits-stuck-at-silicon-valley-bank

I would not be surprised.

 

[Zed]

Wouldn't get too excited about the metals just yet gents.

...but you don't seem to understand. GIM has closed, now it is mandatory for gold to instantly double in price.

Go ask Alanis, she knows...

That is just how these things work.

For god sake man get with the program.

 

[Cigarlover]

 

[savvydon]

...but you don't seem to understand. GIM has closed, now it is mandatory for gold to instantly double in price.

Go ask Alanis, she knows...

That is just how these things work.

For god sake man get with the program.

I get a database error when I try to go over there now. Is that the end of GIM2?

 

[Zed]

I get a database error when I try to go over there now. Is that the end of GIM2?

I tin so...

Gold Is Money - Last days?

Looks like it is lights out this Sunday. If Scorpio is good to his word.

www.pmbug.com

 

[Lancers32]

I get a database error when I try to go over there now. Is that the end of GIM2?

Done late yesterday.

 

[pmbug]

Metals appear to be catching bids at the open.

 

[Zed]

Regional Banking ETF... Is a contagion in play?

 

[Zed]

Metals appear to be catching bids at the open.

ASX Gold Tribe +3.5% on the open this AM. Not on fire but solid given the lack of a US lead on ozzy Mondays.

 

[Zed]

VIX is looking volatile itself...

 

[Voodoo]

Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?

 

[Zed]

Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?

If they bail them out where do they stop?

+ It sends the message that contagion is the real risk here which may just destabilize the system they are trying to stabilize.

It could have a very counterintuitive effect.

I dunno!?

 

[Voodoo]

If they bail them out where do they stop?

+ It sends the message that contagion is the real risk here which may just destabilize the system they are trying to stabilize.

It could have a very counterintuitive effect.

I dunno!?

Either way this isn't ending well. Another $70 bank SBNY went poof today as well.

 

[Dollars]

Reading between the lines. Back room discussions by Treasury/FED trying to hold everything together. Some talk on the web suggesting offers to buy distressed debt/instruments etc. Will have to wait and see what happens

Bail in for bond holders and shareholders?

Some form of bail out for deposit holders?

 

[pmbug]

... Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver ... What do you think?

I'd hold onto the gold. $.02 from the peanut gallery fwiw.

 

[Dollars]

I'd hold onto the gold. $.02 from the peanut gallery fwiw.

I agree Gold has performed admirably However silver at some stage I hope will perform, as it has in the distant past,

 

[Lancers32]

They are all getting bailed out not to the tune of 250k per account but every single penny.

 

[savvydon]

Supposedly the Fed/FDIC and everyone is panicking and looking to bailout everyone and their mom. WITH taxpayer money. I don't see that happening this time.

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?

75:1 should be easily doable at current prices/ratios. You might even get to 75 with a less expensive sovereign coin such as a Canadian Maple. It has the potential to be an attractive play, especially if you don't mind sitting on them for a while.

 

[Lancers32]

I'd hold onto the gold. $.02 from the peanut gallery fwiw.

100% agree.

 

[Voodoo]

Reading between the lines. Back room discussions by Treasury/FED trying to hold everything together. Some talk on the web suggesting offers to buy distressed debt/instruments etc. Will have to wait and see what happens

Bail in for bond holders and shareholders?

Some form of bail out for deposit holders?

Stockholders are definitely getting ZERO

Bondholder may get some

Deposit holders look like they might luck out.

 

[Goldhedge]

Anyway, in light of current events I'm looking to convert some Gold (1 oz bars) to some Silver hopefully sovereign 1 oz coins. I was thinking that a 70:1 ratio would be pretty decent for a local guy. Maybe 75:1 if generic rounds or bars. What do you think?

My understanding is you won't get to swap one for the other without some two way vig action in there.

They'll get their pound of flesh no matter what.

If I grok this correctly... You sell them your gold for cash and buy their silver for cash.

Doesn't that create a taxable event?

 

[Lancers32]

You see who they're bailing out? To paraphrase George Carlin it's a small club and we ain't in it.
'.

 

[Voodoo]

This is a little more explanation BUT $25 Billion seems like chump change. Depositors withdrew $42 Billion in One day.

 

[Voodoo]

My understanding is you won't get to swap one for the other without some two way vig action in there.

They'll get their pound of flesh no matter what.

If I grok this correctly... You sell them your gold for cash and buy their silver for cash.

Doesn't that create a taxable event?

These are technically not mine (family member but I basically did it for them). If they want to create a taxable event this is a non-starter and a clear no-go.