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A recent discussion with @Zed regarding a potential BRICS reserve currency lead me to muse that it's not likely to gain traction unless Saudi Arabia abandons the petro dollar - something that was severely tested when Obama didn't dance to their puppet strings and go to war with Iran. Relations with Saudi have been strained ever since but seemed to be calming down after we gave MBS a pass after he murdered Kashoggi with the world watching. But recent news* has me wondering if Saudi Arabia no longer wants to place nice. How will TPTB keep the system intact?

Reposting for context (because it will get lost in the Lunatic thread):





* recent news being OPEC's fuck you to Biden and the USA:
OPEC+ said Wednesday that it will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic, in a move that threatens to push gasoline prices higher just weeks before US midterm elections.
...

 
unless Saudi Arabia abandons the petro dollar - something that was severely tested when Obama didn't dance to their puppet strings and go to war with Iran.
They didn't do anything then because there was no alternative to the $.

Still isn't, but if the brics+ can get their act together and come up with a workable alternative to the $, I fully expect SA to sell oil for it. If only in limited qty to begin with in order to test the water.

The end will come if they ever decide to price oil in it, as opposed to merely selling oil in it at the converted $ price.

Imo, most of the World's nations would use an alternative, if a viable alternative were available that fulfilled their needs.

To a lot of Nations the $ represents a glass ceiling, that at some point they'll be wanting to break through.
 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?
 
I think most countries in the world that are not very closely aligned with the US are sick of the imperial overreach. I'm fairly sure that they will use the first solid opportunity to do something about it. Creating a Central currency will go along way to levelling the playing field. We can only hope that it happens gracefully and gradually, any situation that gives rise to a global power vacuum could be exceedingly dangerous.

Please don't misunderstand me, I have no problem with the vast majority of the citizens of the USA. I do however get very nervous about the actions of those entrenched in the various bureaucracies running these countries. All of the major power blocs could do with a good swamp draining in my opinion. It looks like a good number of these governments are working against their people rather than for their people.

Anyway moving on, the US dollar is a flawed international reserve currency. We have had a solid understanding of that since the 60s. It has a lifespan and we may be coming towards the end of that period. It's called the Triffen dilemma if anybody wants to read up. An international medium of exchange and store of value that sits outside of national currencies would be a good thing for all. Once upon a time that was gold but I don't think that is is ever going to happen again. With luck we might see some gold backing but the general consensus is commodity-based.

I wouldn't get too excited about it though, they could be another decade of argy bargy before you see anything like agreement on this.

I will believe it when I see it!
 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?

I think that would fail, in order to gain confidence I think the system needs to be backed by something tangible. That's purely my opinion though.
 
Follow up to the SWIFT/Chainlink story:

So, this is strictly focused on CBDCs. That's what I would have expected.
 


So the plot thickens. SWIFT's recent press releases have more context now.
 
Economic stress from the Fed raising rates has global parties wanting to take coordinated action. The US told them no.


 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?
Especially if they're backed by gold... they've all been accumulating the worthless relic for some unknown reason...
I think most countries in the world that are not very closely aligned with the US are sick of the imperial overreach.
That's what I think as well. Currently going on in Ukraine.

The Hundredth Monkey syndrome... one of these days... one of these days....
 
I wouldn't get too excited about it though, they could be another decade of argy bargy before you see anything like agreement on this.
That may be so, but the mere fact they are looking for alternatives should be a wake up call for our gov.

It's been a huge advantage to us that the World uses our dollar as it does, and we should be doing everything possible to encourage and make easier, its use.

Instead, our gov use the dollar as a weapon.

We are led by mis-guided fools.
 
That may be so, but the mere fact they are looking for alternatives should be a wake up call for our gov.

Yeah, it is the sort of thing that could drop next Wednesday or in five years... Who knows?

It's been a huge advantage to us that the World uses our dollar as it does, and we should be doing everything possible to encourage and make easier, its use.

There is the Triffin Dilemma, it is a great advantage while it is working but eventually it drives a crushing debt load and devaluation. That is to say it has a foreseeable natural end and an adjustment that will be hard to swallow for the average American.

Instead, our gov use the dollar as a weapon.

Definitely sped up any response there, Biden blew trust out of the water... not good.

We are led by mis-guided fools.

I wish I could say I understood who is running the USA, it is certainly not the muppets on the cover of the magazine. If I understood that then maybe I'd have a better shot at working out the actual objective. I have a hard time thinking they are stupid, at least as stupid as things have appeared lately.
 
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Economic stress from the Fed raising rates has global parties wanting to take coordinated action. The US told them no.

I can recommend getting into the stuff Snider puts out @ Eurodollar University. Through him and others I've come to understand that the Fed is way less influential than we tend to think. Often they are simply responding to stresses in the global USD (EuroDollar) market that sits outside their control and is bigger than the domestic USD market. That is to say that if the Fed quit rate rises too soon the EuroDollar market will send the USD higher regardless. They need the cred so they are likely to persist until the market allows a pivot, that way at least it looks like they are in total control all the time.
 

Dragging the antiquated SWIFT into the modern era! Why not, the crypto kids have proven out a bunch of technologies and highlighted the problem areas. There is an epic amount of 'free' knowledge and experience they can leverage.
 
SWIFT = economic control over international commerce between nations. It's the nuclear option for economic sanctions, so I'm quite sure there are a lot of parties interested in maintaining that power, other parties interested in usurping that power, and a few radicals saying, how about a system where no one has that power.
 
how about a system where no one has that power.

That is what the BRIC's would have to build, trust is a little bit shot globally. After WWII we had to trust the USA and by and large it was all good, after the actions of late I think the last of that trust has gone.
 
If the BRICS build a system, they will keep control of it (central control). A system where no one has the power would have to be decentralized (like many non-CBDC crypto systems are trying to accomplish).
 
If the BRICS build a system, they will keep control of it (central control).

I doubt it, they might control membership of the system but within the system they will not trust each other so it almost has to be decentralized to work. Within the system it has to be a level playing field to keep Saudi's, Russian's and Chinese all happy. This is doubly so after seeing how SWIFT has been used, it doesn't take much wisdom from these leaders to see that it needs to be above reproach.
 
I am very skeptical that Russia and China will agree to relinquish centralized control. I'll believe it when I see it. BTW, Russia already tried building a competitor to SWIFT on their own a few years back (naturally centralized where they had complete control). It didn't work so well and never got any traction.
 
I am very skeptical that Russia and China will agree to relinquish centralized control. I'll believe it when I see it.

They will have no choice if they want it to be widely adopted. If they decentralize it will stand a much better chance of success.

BTW, Russia already tried building a competitor to SWIFT on their own a few years back (naturally centralized where they had complete control). It didn't work so well and never got any traction.

Illustrating my point. Trust is shot.

The system must be neutral to work, anything else will be of limited adoption at best. They are complaining about the USA's influence over the system and the pitfalls that creates. To offer a system with the same flaw in a different context is very short sighted. I think they know that. I think that the only point of control will be membership of the system, that might be via a trade weighted vote meaning that you have to be OK in the eyes of say Russia, China and Saudi to get access.
 
The key is to trust the neutrality of the system, blockchain tech allows for that to be established. The only thing they need to settle on would be issuance of currency, how that is automated is crucial.
 
Jan Niewenhuijs interviewed by GoldCore talks about the possibility of a monetary reset using gold as the backbone. ...
Jan's latest:
More:

 
Russian SFPS system growing fast. Also talking to India and currently using CIPS (China International Payments System) for bilateral trade with China.


Golden Regards
Uncle
 

Growing faster than in the last few years, but still very small. It remains to be seen if the BRICS can integrate their systems into something decentralized. A patchwork of centralized systems isn't likely to be the answer to dethroning SWIFT for global commerce.
 
Swift really isn't an issue, the issue is that's the system the US dollar uses. As far as a system goes it's a bit antiquated. They could have an effective payment system tomorrow the question is the currency that is to be used.
 
Bold emphasis is mine:

Sounds fantastic. Not.
 
has rickards issued an apology? talk about swing and miss.......or intentional deception perhaps

'currency wars' are laughable. frbny has/does continue to bail out it's so-called competitors, to the tune of trillions of dollars

the rule is collusion, not competition. ie, it's all one bank/currency - frn backs them all
 
Pursuant to Jan Niewenhuijs' post:

Things you didn't expect to see in mainstream press for $800
 
Sounds fantastic. Not.

The next step is to close the system, closing the system is locking us all into digital currency. Then they have total control and they will use it to the degree that we allow them. Given the state of the democracy that means whatever the phuck they want! (Please prove me wrong... please, please, please!)

This and other joys are coming our way including forced investment in gov paper for retirement funds!
 
 
The largest Achilles heel of crypto currencies has been transaction throughput. Crypto currencies work great for bank and institutional transfers but rolling it out to Joe Six-Pack’s purchase at Wally-mart is a whole different beast. The amount of computing power needed is economically counterproductive unless someone has figured out a new algorithm.
 
... The amount of computing power needed is economically counterproductive unless someone has figured out a new algorithm.
That is very true of Proof of Work coins/systems and older Proof of Stake systems. This was supposed to be the big deal about Etherium's transition to Etherium 2.0. The latest Proof of Stake systems are much more efficient.
 
That is very true of Proof of Work coins/systems and older Proof of Stake systems. This was supposed to be the big deal about Etherium's transition to Etherium 2.0. The latest Proof of Stake systems are much more efficient.
Agreed but would you stake the economic health of your economy on a theory yet unproven? I’ve worked in financial IT for years and no bank or brokerage wants to be the one that caused a market halt or commerce freeze up because of a new system. That’s the reason many financial systems spend years in parallel testing.

I’m not saying etherium 2.x is not up to the task but I know the response times and penalties credit card processing need to live up to and I’m not confident that any crypto currency could economically compete.
 
Agreed but would you stake the economic health of your economy on a theory yet unproven? I’ve worked in financial IT for years and no bank or brokerage wants to be the one that caused a market halt or commerce freeze up because of a new system.

I don't think they care since their current fiat financial system is already imploding and they need more control to control us...
 
From the link:

As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback.

The MSCI International Emerging Market Currency Index is up nearly 5% from its lows and notched its best monthly gain in about seven years in November, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes bolstered the case for investors betting on emerging market currencies.

 

 

 
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