Tin Foil Hats, Economic Reality and the Total Perspective Vortex

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Please have a look around and if you like what you see, please consider registering an account and joining the discussions. When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

A recent discussion with @Zed regarding a potential BRICS reserve currency lead me to muse that it's not likely to gain traction unless Saudi Arabia abandons the petro dollar - something that was severely tested when Obama didn't dance to their puppet strings and go to war with Iran. Relations with Saudi have been strained ever since but seemed to be calming down after we gave MBS a pass after he murdered Kashoggi with the world watching. But recent news* has me wondering if Saudi Arabia no longer wants to place nice. How will TPTB keep the system intact?

Reposting for context (because it will get lost in the Lunatic thread):

The BRICS countries are exploring establishing a new reserve currency to better serve their economic interests, according to senior Russian diplomat and BRICS points person Pavel Knyazev. It will be based on a basket of the currencies of the five-nation bloc, ET has learnt.
...
According to analysts, the BRICS reserve currency is meant to rival the US dollar and the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) currency.
...


SAUDI ARABIA, Turkey and Egypt are on course to become the latest members of the Brics International Forum group and could submit applications next year, its president said today.

“All three countries have shown their interest in joining [Brics] and are preparing to apply for membership,” Purnima Anand said.
...
Their membership bids could be discussed and potentially agreed at next year’s Brics summit in South Africa, with the trio “already engaged in the process.”
...


* recent news being OPEC's fuck you to Biden and the USA:
OPEC+ said Wednesday that it will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic, in a move that threatens to push gasoline prices higher just weeks before US midterm elections.
...

 
unless Saudi Arabia abandons the petro dollar - something that was severely tested when Obama didn't dance to their puppet strings and go to war with Iran.
They didn't do anything then because there was no alternative to the $.

Still isn't, but if the brics+ can get their act together and come up with a workable alternative to the $, I fully expect SA to sell oil for it. If only in limited qty to begin with in order to test the water.

The end will come if they ever decide to price oil in it, as opposed to merely selling oil in it at the converted $ price.

Imo, most of the World's nations would use an alternative, if a viable alternative were available that fulfilled their needs.

To a lot of Nations the $ represents a glass ceiling, that at some point they'll be wanting to break through.
 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?
 
I think most countries in the world that are not very closely aligned with the US are sick of the imperial overreach. I'm fairly sure that they will use the first solid opportunity to do something about it. Creating a Central currency will go along way to levelling the playing field. We can only hope that it happens gracefully and gradually, any situation that gives rise to a global power vacuum could be exceedingly dangerous.

Please don't misunderstand me, I have no problem with the vast majority of the citizens of the USA. I do however get very nervous about the actions of those entrenched in the various bureaucracies running these countries. All of the major power blocs could do with a good swamp draining in my opinion. It looks like a good number of these governments are working against their people rather than for their people.

Anyway moving on, the US dollar is a flawed international reserve currency. We have had a solid understanding of that since the 60s. It has a lifespan and we may be coming towards the end of that period. It's called the Triffen dilemma if anybody wants to read up. An international medium of exchange and store of value that sits outside of national currencies would be a good thing for all. Once upon a time that was gold but I don't think that is is ever going to happen again. With luck we might see some gold backing but the general consensus is commodity-based.

I wouldn't get too excited about it though, they could be another decade of argy bargy before you see anything like agreement on this.

I will believe it when I see it!
 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?

I think that would fail, in order to gain confidence I think the system needs to be backed by something tangible. That's purely my opinion though.
 
Follow up to the SWIFT/Chainlink story:
SWIFT has successfully shown that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and tokenised assets can move seamlessly on existing financial infrastructure – a major milestone towards enabling their smooth integration into the international financial ecosystem.

The findings, from two separate experiments, solve the significant challenge of interoperability in cross-border transactions by bridging between different distributed ledger technology (DLT) networks and existing payment systems, allowing digital currencies and assets to flow smoothly alongside, and interact with, their traditional counterparts. This important step forward builds on SWIFT’s core capabilities and means that as CBDCs and tokens develop, they can be rapidly deployed at scale to facilitate trade and investment between more than 200 countries and territories around the world.

Interlinking CBDCs for seamless cross-border payments

Globally, nine out of 10 central banks are actively exploring digital currencies — often using different technologies and with a primary focus on domestic use. For the potential of CBDCs to be fully realised across borders, these digital currencies need to overcome inherent differences to interact with each other, as well as with traditional fiat currencies.

SWIFT, in collaboration with Capgemini, achieved CBDC-to-CBDC transactions between different DLT networks based on popular Quorum and Corda technologies, as well as fiat-to-CBDC flows between these networks and a real-time gross settlement system. The success showed that the blockchain networks could be interlinked for cross-border payments through a single gateway, and that SWIFT’s new transaction management capabilities could orchestrate all inter-network communication.

14 central and commercial banks, including Banque de France, the Deutsche Bundesbank, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, NatWest, SMBC, Standard Chartered, UBS and Wells Fargo, are now collaborating in a testing environment to accelerate the path to full scale deployment.

Unlocking the potential of tokenised assets

In a separate experiment with a different group of participants, SWIFT similarly demonstrated that its infrastructure can serve as an interconnector between multiple tokenisation platforms and different types of cash payment.

Working in collaboration with Citi, Clearstream, Northern Trust, and SETL, its technology partner, SWIFT explored 70 scenarios simulating market issuance and secondary market transfers of tokenised bonds, equities and cash. It successfully served as a single access point to various tokenised networks and showed its infrastructure could be used to create, transfer and redeem tokens and update balances between multiple client wallets, as well as provide interoperability between different tokenisation platforms and existing account-based infrastructure.

Tokenisation is a relatively nascent market, but the World Economic Forum has estimated it could reach $24tn by 20271. The potential benefits include greater market liquidity and fractionalisation, which could increase access to investment markets for retail investors, and enable institutional investors to build stronger portfolios.

Tom Zschach, Chief Innovation Officer at SWIFT, said: “Digital currencies and tokens have huge potential to shape the way we will all pay and invest in the future. But that potential can only be unleashed if the different approaches that are being explored have the ability to connect and work together. We see inclusivity and interoperability as central pillars of the financial ecosystem, and our innovation is a major step towards unlocking the potential of the digital future. For CBDCs, our solution will enable central banks to connect their own networks simply and directly to all the other payments systems in the world through a single gateway, ensuring the instant and smooth flow of cross-border payments.

“Tokenisation has great potential when it comes to strengthening liquidity in markets and increasing access to investment opportunities, and SWIFT’s existing infrastructure can ensure these benefits can be realised at the earliest opportunity, by as many people as possible.”

The experiments are part of SWIFT’s extensive innovation agenda in support of its strategic focus on enabling instant, frictionless and interoperable cross-border transactions. The cooperative, which connects more than 11,500 financial institutions and 4 billion accounts across 200 countries and territories, was created to bridge geographies, technologies and currencies. And it has been transforming the underlying infrastructure of the global economy at pace to meet the rapidly changing requirements of businesses and consumers. This includes a new standard, SWIFT Go, for low value payments, and services like Payment Pre-validation that uses predictive intelligence to pre-check international payments before they begin to prevent common mistakes that cause delays.
...


So, this is strictly focused on CBDCs. That's what I would have expected.
 
Two giants in the traditional finance and payments world, JPMorgan and Visa, have announced a new partnership that will focus on streamlining cross-border payments through the use of their private blockchain networks Liink and B2B Connect.

Liink is a network created by JPMorgan that was designed specifically for cross-border transfers. It is offered under the bank’s blockchain and payments initiative Onyx, which provides a platform for institutions to validate transactions and share financial information.

B2B Connect was created by Visa to serve as a cross-border payment product for financial institutions and corporate clients. B2B Connect is also integrated with Onyx's Confirm, which is an account-information validation product that verifies that the information provided by users is correct and valid.
...
Liink currently has more than 75 global participants operating on the network, which has so far processed over 60 million messages. Once the service is widespread and fully operational, Liink will offer a suitable alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) messaging system for conducting cross-border payments.


So the plot thickens. SWIFT's recent press releases have more context now.
 
Economic stress from the Fed raising rates has global parties wanting to take coordinated action. The US told them no.

...
"I've said on many occasions that I think a market-determined value for the dollar is in America's interest. And I continue to feel that way," she said on Tuesday, when asked if she would consider a Plaza Accord 2.0 agreement.

In 1985, a destabilizing surge in the dollar prompted five countries - France, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and what was then West Germany - to band together to weaken the U.S. currency and help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Following the deal, named the Plaza Accord for the famed New York hotel where it was hammered out, the dollar shed roughly 25% of its value over the ensuing 12 months.

With no current U.S. interest in engineering that kind of deal, other countries have to find ways to mitigate the pain stemming from a strong dollar, which has forced some emerging economies to hike interest rates to defend their currencies even at the cost of cooling economic growth more than they want.
...
South Korea's central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said on Saturday he does not sense an interest among U.S. officials to stem the dollar's strength through joint intervention.

But he said some kind of international cooperation on the dollar may be needed "after a certain period."
...

 
... based on a basket of their 5 currencies. What is to keep one from debasing their fiat faster than another?
Especially if they're backed by gold... they've all been accumulating the worthless relic for some unknown reason...
I think most countries in the world that are not very closely aligned with the US are sick of the imperial overreach.
That's what I think as well. Currently going on in Ukraine.

The Hundredth Monkey syndrome... one of these days... one of these days....
 
I wouldn't get too excited about it though, they could be another decade of argy bargy before you see anything like agreement on this.
That may be so, but the mere fact they are looking for alternatives should be a wake up call for our gov.

It's been a huge advantage to us that the World uses our dollar as it does, and we should be doing everything possible to encourage and make easier, its use.

Instead, our gov use the dollar as a weapon.

We are led by mis-guided fools.
 
That may be so, but the mere fact they are looking for alternatives should be a wake up call for our gov.

Yeah, it is the sort of thing that could drop next Wednesday or in five years... Who knows?

It's been a huge advantage to us that the World uses our dollar as it does, and we should be doing everything possible to encourage and make easier, its use.

There is the Triffin Dilemma, it is a great advantage while it is working but eventually it drives a crushing debt load and devaluation. That is to say it has a foreseeable natural end and an adjustment that will be hard to swallow for the average American.

Instead, our gov use the dollar as a weapon.

Definitely sped up any response there, Biden blew trust out of the water... not good.

We are led by mis-guided fools.

I wish I could say I understood who is running the USA, it is certainly not the muppets on the cover of the magazine. If I understood that then maybe I'd have a better shot at working out the actual objective. I have a hard time thinking they are stupid, at least as stupid as things have appeared lately.
 
Last edited:
Economic stress from the Fed raising rates has global parties wanting to take coordinated action. The US told them no.

I can recommend getting into the stuff Snider puts out @ Eurodollar University. Through him and others I've come to understand that the Fed is way less influential than we tend to think. Often they are simply responding to stresses in the global USD (EuroDollar) market that sits outside their control and is bigger than the domestic USD market. That is to say that if the Fed quit rate rises too soon the EuroDollar market will send the USD higher regardless. They need the cred so they are likely to persist until the market allows a pivot, that way at least it looks like they are in total control all the time.
 

So the plot thickens. SWIFT's recent press releases have more context now.

Dragging the antiquated SWIFT into the modern era! Why not, the crypto kids have proven out a bunch of technologies and highlighted the problem areas. There is an epic amount of 'free' knowledge and experience they can leverage.
 
SWIFT = economic control over international commerce between nations. It's the nuclear option for economic sanctions, so I'm quite sure there are a lot of parties interested in maintaining that power, other parties interested in usurping that power, and a few radicals saying, how about a system where no one has that power.
 
how about a system where no one has that power.

That is what the BRIC's would have to build, trust is a little bit shot globally. After WWII we had to trust the USA and by and large it was all good, after the actions of late I think the last of that trust has gone.
 
If the BRICS build a system, they will keep control of it (central control). A system where no one has the power would have to be decentralized (like many non-CBDC crypto systems are trying to accomplish).
 
If the BRICS build a system, they will keep control of it (central control).

I doubt it, they might control membership of the system but within the system they will not trust each other so it almost has to be decentralized to work. Within the system it has to be a level playing field to keep Saudi's, Russian's and Chinese all happy. This is doubly so after seeing how SWIFT has been used, it doesn't take much wisdom from these leaders to see that it needs to be above reproach.
 
I am very skeptical that Russia and China will agree to relinquish centralized control. I'll believe it when I see it. BTW, Russia already tried building a competitor to SWIFT on their own a few years back (naturally centralized where they had complete control). It didn't work so well and never got any traction.
 
I am very skeptical that Russia and China will agree to relinquish centralized control. I'll believe it when I see it.

They will have no choice if they want it to be widely adopted. If they decentralize it will stand a much better chance of success.

BTW, Russia already tried building a competitor to SWIFT on their own a few years back (naturally centralized where they had complete control). It didn't work so well and never got any traction.

Illustrating my point. Trust is shot.

The system must be neutral to work, anything else will be of limited adoption at best. They are complaining about the USA's influence over the system and the pitfalls that creates. To offer a system with the same flaw in a different context is very short sighted. I think they know that. I think that the only point of control will be membership of the system, that might be via a trade weighted vote meaning that you have to be OK in the eyes of say Russia, China and Saudi to get access.
 
The key is to trust the neutrality of the system, blockchain tech allows for that to be established. The only thing they need to settle on would be issuance of currency, how that is automated is crucial.
 
Jan Niewenhuijs interviewed by GoldCore talks about the possibility of a monetary reset using gold as the backbone. ...
Jan's latest:
The Governor of the Dutch central bank stated the gold revaluation account ensures the solvency of his central bank in an interview on television about prospective losses. The significance of this statement is that if any European central bank will cover losses by using its gold revaluation account in full, the ECB has to put a floor under the gold price. And if more losses need to be covered than the current gold revaluation accounts of European central banks allow, the ECB will need to revalue gold.
...

More:

 
Russian SFPS system growing fast. Also talking to India and currently using CIPS (China International Payments System) for bilateral trade with China.


Golden Regards
Uncle
 
...
Alla Bakina, director of the central bank's national payment system department, said 50 new entities had joined Russia's alternative system this year, taking the total number to 440, of which more than 100 are non-residents.
...
The central bank does not disclose the list of countries whose institutions have joined the SPFS, Bakina said.
...
More than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and territories use SWIFT.
...
Washington included National Card Payments System (NSPK) head Vladimir Komlev on its sanctions list, prompting some foreign banks to withdraw support.

Cuba, South Korea and a handful of former Soviet republics have allowed Mir cards' use, but Komlev on Thursday said the NSPK had stopped disclosing the list of countries where the cards are accepted. ...

Growing faster than in the last few years, but still very small. It remains to be seen if the BRICS can integrate their systems into something decentralized. A patchwork of centralized systems isn't likely to be the answer to dethroning SWIFT for global commerce.
 
Swift really isn't an issue, the issue is that's the system the US dollar uses. As far as a system goes it's a bit antiquated. They could have an effective payment system tomorrow the question is the currency that is to be used.
 
Bold emphasis is mine:
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has announced that the European Commission intends to release a legislative proposal on a digital euro in the near future. Lagarde made the remarks at the “Towards a legislative framework enabling a digital euro for citizens and businesses” conference on Monday.

“The timely adoption of a legal framework for the digital euro would give all stakeholders the necessary legal certainty to prepare for its possible introduction and send a strong signal of political support,” Lagarde said. “I'm very much looking forward to the legislative proposal for establishing a digital euro, which the European Commission will propose shortly.”

The digital euro is intended to be a central bank digital currency (CBDC) that serves the European Union. The two-year exploration process into its creation is scheduled to conclude in September 2023.

According to ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta, the central bank is currently exploring the possibility of placing transaction and store-of-value limits for individuals who use the digital euro.
...


Sounds fantastic. Not.
 
has rickards issued an apology? talk about swing and miss.......or intentional deception perhaps

'currency wars' are laughable. frbny has/does continue to bail out it's so-called competitors, to the tune of trillions of dollars

the rule is collusion, not competition. ie, it's all one bank/currency - frn backs them all
 
Pursuant to Jan Niewenhuijs' post:
...
DNB is exploring a revaluation of its large gold reserves as a “solvency backstop”. If the Dutch are having to do this, we can be sure that weaker central banks in the ECB network are in worse shape. It is likely that gold reserves will have to be mobilised in several states to boost equity capital. The barbarous relic may get its revenge on fiat paper.
...


Things you didn't expect to see in mainstream press for $800
 
Sounds fantastic. Not.

The next step is to close the system, closing the system is locking us all into digital currency. Then they have total control and they will use it to the degree that we allow them. Given the state of the democracy that means whatever the phuck they want! (Please prove me wrong... please, please, please!)

This and other joys are coming our way including forced investment in gov paper for retirement funds!
 
Members of the U.S. banking community today announced the launch of a proof of concept (PoC) project that will explore the feasibility of an interoperable digital money platform known as the regulated liability network (RLN). Using distributed ledger technology, the proposed platform would create innovation opportunities to improve financial settlements and would include participation from central banks, commercial banks of various sizes and regulated non-banks.

The 12-week PoC will test a version of the RLN design that operates exclusively in U.S. dollars where commercial banks issue simulated digital money or “tokens” – representing the deposits of their own customers – and settle through simulated central bank reserves on a shared multi-entity distributed ledger. The PoC will also test the feasibility of a programmable digital money design that is potentially extensible to other digital assets, as well as the viability of the proposed system within existing laws and regulations.

Members of the U.S. banking and payments community involved in this PoC (as listed further below) are pleased to be working alongside the New York Innovation Center (NYIC) that is part of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The NYIC collaborates with the private and public sectors on innovations aimed at enhancing the functioning of the global financial system and the ability of central banks to carry out their missions. For information from the New York Innovation Center on this collaboration, see here.

Other key aspects of the PoC include:

  • Regulatory framework: The platform will align with the existing regulatory framework and preserve existing requirements for deposit-based payments processing, notably maintaining know your customer and anti-money laundering requirements.
  • Scope: The PoC will simulate digital money issued by regulated institutions in U.S. dollars, although the concept could potentially be extended to multi-currency operations and regulated stablecoins.
  • Tokens: The PoC will simulate tokens that are 100% fungible and redeemable with other forms of money.
  • Industry collaboration: The PoC will include dialogue with the broader U.S. banking community, including community and regional banks.
  • Results: Following the conclusion of the PoC, the banking group will publicize the results, which they hope will be an important contribution to the literature on digital money.
  • Future plans: The banking group participants are not committed to any future phases of work once the PoC has been completed.
This project will be conducted in a test environment and only use simulated data. It is not intended to advance any specific policy outcome, nor is it intended to signal that the Federal Reserve will make any imminent decisions about the appropriateness of issuing a retail or wholesale CBDC, nor how one would necessarily be designed. The findings of the pilot project will be released after it concludes.

In addition to the NYIC, the other participants on this project include the following financial institutions and payments organizations: BNY Mellon, Citi, HSBC, Mastercard, PNC Bank, TD Bank, Truist, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo. The technology is being provided by SETL with Digital Asset, powered by Amazon Web Services. Swift, the global financial messaging service provider, is also participating in the initiative to support interoperability across the international financial ecosystem. Legal services are being provided by Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and Deloitte will be providing advisory services.
 
The largest Achilles heel of crypto currencies has been transaction throughput. Crypto currencies work great for bank and institutional transfers but rolling it out to Joe Six-Pack’s purchase at Wally-mart is a whole different beast. The amount of computing power needed is economically counterproductive unless someone has figured out a new algorithm.
 
... The amount of computing power needed is economically counterproductive unless someone has figured out a new algorithm.
That is very true of Proof of Work coins/systems and older Proof of Stake systems. This was supposed to be the big deal about Etherium's transition to Etherium 2.0. The latest Proof of Stake systems are much more efficient.
 
That is very true of Proof of Work coins/systems and older Proof of Stake systems. This was supposed to be the big deal about Etherium's transition to Etherium 2.0. The latest Proof of Stake systems are much more efficient.
Agreed but would you stake the economic health of your economy on a theory yet unproven? I’ve worked in financial IT for years and no bank or brokerage wants to be the one that caused a market halt or commerce freeze up because of a new system. That’s the reason many financial systems spend years in parallel testing.

I’m not saying etherium 2.x is not up to the task but I know the response times and penalties credit card processing need to live up to and I’m not confident that any crypto currency could economically compete.
 
Agreed but would you stake the economic health of your economy on a theory yet unproven? I’ve worked in financial IT for years and no bank or brokerage wants to be the one that caused a market halt or commerce freeze up because of a new system.

I don't think they care since their current fiat financial system is already imploding and they need more control to control us...
 
From the link:

As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback.

The MSCI International Emerging Market Currency Index is up nearly 5% from its lows and notched its best monthly gain in about seven years in November, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes bolstered the case for investors betting on emerging market currencies.

 
...
In his latest report, market analyst at BNP Paribas, Chi Lo, said that if Saudia Arabia started trading oil in renminbi, it would create further momentum for the Chinese currency, bringing it one step closer to reaching critical mass internationally.

"Gold, however, is a key factor in the further development of a petro-yuan system," he said in the report. "A gold-backed petro-yuan does not require full renminbi convertibility to function, so it allows China to simultaneously retain control of its capital account and boost the internationalisation of the renminbi."

Lo added that backing a renminbi-oil trade with gold will be instrumental in building its petro-yuan system.

"Making the renminbi convertible into gold effectively turns the currency into a global investable asset for foreign renminbi owners, boosting their confidence in and demand for the Chinese currency," he said.

The comments come as China announced it purchased another 30 tonnes of gold in December. This follows November's purchase of 32 tonnes of gold, the first officially recorded purchase since September 2019.
...
However, China still has a long road ahead as it competes with the U.S. dollar. Lo noted that even if Saudi Arabia did start accepting yuan for oil -- which would move up to $1 trillion out of U.S.-dominated markets -- yuan-settled global payments would total about 3% of the total market, putting it just ahead of Japan. The U.S. and the euro dominate global payment systems by a massive margin.

 
... it was on 7 December 2022, on the first day of Chinese premier Xi Jinping’s multiday visit to Saudi Arabia to strengthen ties in areas such as energy and investment, that back in China, SAFE was simultaneously announcing that the Chinese central bank had begun ‘buying’ gold again.

So you can see that none of this was coincidental. The symbolic intersection of the Chinese Yuan, Middle Eastern energy, and gold, in a visit between two gold loving nations designed to boost multipolarism in the region at the expense of US dominance is clear to see. This was China again saying “I’ll see your hand and I’ll raise it with some gold”. But this time there is a lot more at stake than joining the SDR or negotiating a trade war. This time China and Saudi are sowing the seeds of a future PetroYuan and reminding the world that it could be linked to gold.
...
The reality is that China is probably accumulating gold all the time, and has never stopped accumulating, both on the international market as well as from undisclosed domestic production. While these monthly ‘purchases’ could be fresh buying internationally, they could just as easily be some of the Chinese state’s existing gold holdings being reclassified as PBoC gold.
...
... the monthly China gold ‘purchases’ which we will probably see in the coming months will do just enough to keep China’s gold reserves on everyones’ radars, as a portion of the world shifts towards a multipolar monetary future.

 
Back
Top Bottom