Tracking Trump's Tariffs and Turbulent Trade Talks

Terminal Tariffs: Modeling the Final Destination of Trump’s Trade War​

Why Trump’s tariff rollback won’t lower grocery prices right away​

• President Donald Trump is rolling back tariffs on some imported food items, but that won’t lower grocery prices right away.
• Inventories of food and commodities that were purchased at higher prices due to tariffs are beginning to hit store shelves, raising costs for consumers.
• Economists caution there is no guarantee that prices will return to previous lower levels even after inventories are exhausted and replenished.

Tariffs Could Inch Lower in 2026. But Another Ticking Time Bomb for Trade Is Looming​

Tariffs trickle into cost of Thanksgiving dinner, jilting consumers and farmers​

Fatrat said:

The U.S. Commerce Department has proposed a 92% tariff on 13 Italian pasta brands due to an anti-dumping investigation, which could be combined with a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, raising the total cost of imports to over 107%. This could make the pasta significantly more expensive for American consumers and potentially lead to some brands leaving the U.S. market entirely, though some companies like Barilla have pasta production facilities in the U.S. and are evaluating their options. The final decision is expected in January 2026, and Italian officials are considering trade complaints.

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Joe King said:

Bought some Italian pasta yesterday. Possibly for the first time. I never really paid any attention to where my pasta is made. Lol

Anyways, went to buy some regular elbow macaroni, but the pasta area almost looked like the toilet paper aisle during the coof.

All that was left was lasagne spaghetti and bow ties. Was also something called radiatori pasta made in Italy that I ended up getting.

The tariffs were terrible on it. Box of the stuff cost me a whole $2 and change.

I think it'll be the only kind I'll buy from now on. It's good. I like it a lot.

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Fatrat said:

Italian pasta tends to be made from Duram wheat... Pasta in Italy may be easier on your stomach due to a combination of factors, including the use of different wheat varieties, traditional slow-drying methods, and the common practice of cooking it al dente. Additionally, stricter regulations in Italy ban certain pesticides and additives that are common in U.S. food production, and the more relaxed travel mindset can also play a role.

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Costco sues Trump admin seeking tariff refunds before Supreme Court rules if they’re illegal​

• Costco filed a lawsuit asking for a full refund of tariffs the warehouse club giant has paid since President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs earlier this year.
• Costco’s suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade notes that it might not be able to get the refunds later, even if the Supreme Court upholds lower court rulings that the tariffs are illegal.
• Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those often high tariffs on imports from most of the world’s nations.

Delayed tariff impact starting to hit, could cause companies to reduce head count in 2026​

• Tariffs aimed at reshoring U.S. jobs lost to overseas manufacturing could end up lowering head count instead, according to statements from corporate executives and economic forecasters.
• Respondents to the Institute for Supply Management’s November survey of factory conditions expressed elevated levels of worry.
• A report Tuesday from the OECD indicated that tariffs have yet to bite the global economy but warned that the full impact could be still to come.