Tracking Trump's Tariffs and Turbulent Trade Talks

Farm bankruptcies surging amid U.S.-China trade war​

Oct 5, 2025
This week, President Trump is expected to announce billions of dollars in aid for the nation's farmers. Many are in financial crisis and may be forced to sell their crops at steep losses this year as China, once the largest buyer of the U.S. soybean exports, retaliates against U.S. tariffs. Lana Zak has more.

2:26

DYODD here

Fortune

Trump’s tariffs may be bringing in a lot of revenue but they’ve also been a ‘tax on capital, so far,’ top economist says​

President Trump’s tariffs, highly touted as a lever to boost American industry, are now emerging as a substantial tax on business—putting pressure on corporate profits, labor markets, and prices, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist. Michael Gapen draws a striking conclusion in his Monday research note, US Economics Weekly: “Tariffs have been a tax on capital, so far.”

In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. corporations largely absorbed the escalating cost of tariffs, according to Gapen’s team, offsetting higher nonlabor costs with reductions in labor costs and profitability rather than passing them directly on to consumers. This is markedly different from the trends observed in 2021 and 2022, a phenomenon called “greedflation” by some, when businesses responded to rising costs by raising prices more than those costs, which led to boosted profits.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...p-economist-says/ar-AA1NXz21?ocid=socialshare

Trade war leaving farmers in Kansas, Missouri stuck in limbo​

Oct 6, 2025
Farmers in Kansas and Missouri have soybeans to sell. The ongoing trade war has left them without wanting to buy.

Trade war leaving farmers in Kansas, Missouri stuck in limbo

searcher said:

Trade war leaving farmers in Kansas, Missouri stuck in limbo​

Oct 6, 2025
Farmers in Kansas and Missouri have soybeans to sell. The ongoing trade war has left them without wanting to buy.

Trade war leaving farmers in Kansas, Missouri stuck in limbo

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We'd better get busy creating stuff that uses soybeans then!

American ingenuity to the rescue?

NBC News

UPS is 'disposing of' U.S.-bound packages over customs paperwork problems​

Thousands of U.S.-bound packages shipped by UPS are trapped at hubs across the country, unable to clear the maze of new customs requirements imposed by the Trump administration.

As packages flagged for customs issues pile up in UPS warehouses, the company told NBC News it has begun “disposing of” some shipments.

Frustrated UPS customers describe waiting for weeks and trying to make sense of scores of conflicting tracking updates from the world’s largest courier.

“I’ve never seen anything like this before,” Matthew Wasserbach, brokerage manager of Express Customs Clearance, said of the UPS backlog. “It’s totally unprecedented.”

Wasserbach’s New York City-based shipping services firm helps clients move shipments through customs. He said the company has seen a spike in inquiries for help with UPS customs clearance.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u...perwork-problems/ar-AA1ObRYf?ocid=socialshare

searcher said:

Post in thread 'Commodities, Business & Shipping'

Oct 10, 2025

Market sell-off on Trump’s China tariff threat worsens into the close with the Dow down 800 points: Live updates​

Stocks moved decidedly lower in a rapid move on Friday after President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs on China, accusing the country of “becoming very hostile” with its restrictions on rare earth metals, a key resource for the tech and defense industries.

Stocks accelerating selling heading into the close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average being down 802 points, or 1.7%. The S&P 500 lost 2.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%. Prior...

• searcher

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Yup, that ain't good...

100% by Nov 1st

searcher said:

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Is China doing what he says they are doing?
....and if they are, how is he wrong in saying that?

Yes China is doing this and Trump is pissed he didn't think of it 1st. LOL.
China is playing the long game. The know the dollar is dying and thus the reason to set up bullion exchanges all over the world. So, China can be the worlds manufacturers with other partners in various countries and they cn all prosper together and get paid in real money that holds it value or the other countries can continue to get bullied by the US and get paid in worthless dollars. I dont think China really cares which side everyone wants. In the end they know 2 things. Manufacturers win the game along with real money that preserves wealth.

Thats my take on it anyway.

Cigarlover said:

Yes China is doing this and Trump is pissed he didn't think of it 1st. LOL.
China is playing the long game. The know the dollar is dying and thus the reason to set up bullion exchanges all over the world. So, China can be the worlds manufacturers with other partners in various countries and they cn all prosper together and get paid in real money that holds it value or the other countries can continue to get bullied by the US and get paid in worthless dollars. I dont think China really cares which side everyone wants. In the end they know 2 things. Manufacturers win the game along with real money that preserves wealth.

Thats my take on it anyway.

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I was referring to the rare Earth metals stuff.

If they are trying to cut us off from being able to buy them at all, he is correct in doing what he is doing.

Joe King said:

I was referring to the rare Earth metals stuff.

If they are trying to cut us off from being able to buy them at all, he is correct in doing what he is doing.

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From Grok:

Overview of China and the United States in Global Context
China and the United States are the world's two largest economies, with intertwined yet increasingly adversarial relationships shaped by trade, technology, and geopolitical competition. As of 2025, the U.S. GDP stands at approximately $28 trillion, driven by innovation in tech, finance, and services, while China's economy, valued at around $19 trillion, relies on manufacturing, exports, and state-led infrastructure. Their bilateral trade exceeds $600 billion annually, but tensions have escalated under U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, including tariffs, export controls on semiconductors, and disputes over intellectual property. Rare earth elements (REEs)—a group of 17 metals essential for high-tech manufacturing—have become a flashpoint, amplifying these frictions due to China's overwhelming dominance in supply.

What Are Rare Earth Elements and Why Do They Matter?
Rare earth elements, despite their name, are not particularly rare in the Earth's crust but are difficult and environmentally challenging to extract and process. They include metals like neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, and yttrium, used in:

• Electronics and EVs: Permanent magnets in smartphone speakers, electric vehicle motors, and wind turbines.
• Defense: Guidance systems for missiles, radar, fighter jets, and drones.
• Renewables and Tech: Catalysts in batteries, lasers, semiconductors, and AI hardware.

Global demand is surging—projected to double by 2030 due to the green energy transition and AI boom—making REEs a strategic commodity. Disruptions can halt production lines, as seen in 2025 when U.S. automakers and European suppliers faced shortages.

China's Dominance in Rare Earth Production
China controls the global REE supply chain like no other nation, leveraging low costs, state subsidies, and lax environmental regulations to outpace competitors. Key facts from 2024-2025 data:

• Historical Rise: Production exploded from 129,000 tons in 2009 to current levels, fueled by government quotas and exports valued at $170 million in 2024 (mostly to Japan and the U.S.).
• Strategic Control: Beijing enforces strict quotas via the Ministry of Commerce, banning unauthorized overseas mining by Chinese citizens and restricting technology exports since 2023.

This monopoly allows China to influence global prices and supply, turning REEs into a "trump card" in international relations.

The U.S. Position: Heavy Reliance and Vulnerability

The U.S. has vast REE reserves (1.8 million metric tons) but minimal domestic capacity, importing ~80% of its needs. Between 2020-2023, China supplied 70% of U.S. REE compounds and metals, with yttrium imports at 93% from China. In 2024, U.S. production reached ~43,000 tons (12% global share), mainly from the revived Mountain Pass mine in California, but processing remains outsourced—often to China.

This dependence exposes U.S. industries: Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing rely on REEs for F-35 jets and missiles, while Tesla and Apple face EV and gadget delays. In April 2025, Chinese restrictions caused U.S. factory shutdowns, highlighting national security risks.

How Rare Earths Shape U.S.-China Relations

REEs exemplify "economic statecraft," where supply control becomes geopolitical leverage. Tensions peaked in 2025 amid Trump's "liberation day" tariffs (up to 145% on Chinese goods), prompting China's retaliatory export curbs. Here's a timeline of key 2025 events:

• Leverage Dynamics: China uses REEs to counter U.S. semiconductor bans, demanding business data (e.g., customer lists) for licenses. This "lawfare" extends to foreign firms using Chinese tech, even trace amounts (0.1% REE content).
• Broader Tensions: REEs intersect with Taiwan, TikTok, and AI chip disputes. Beijing views curbs as "national security" against U.S. military use, while Washington sees them as economic coercion.
• Global Ripple: Allies like Japan and the EU face similar shortages; EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic called REEs a "priority" in 2025 talks.

U.S. Efforts to Reduce Dependence
Recognizing REEs as a vulnerability since the 2010 China-Japan spat, the U.S. has accelerated diversification, though full independence is years away. Key 2025 initiatives:

• Domestic Investment: $400 million equity in MP Materials (Mountain Pass) for integrated mining-to-magnets facilities in California and Texas; projected 1,000 tons of magnets by end-2025 (still <1% of China's output).
• Policy Tools: Executive Order 14241 streamlines permitting; Defense Production Act funds critical mineral projects; FY2026 budget proposes major boosts.
• Friendshoring: Partnerships with Australia (tripling output to 2027 via Arafura's Nolans Project, $840M funding) and Canada; Energy Fuels' Utah facility pilots U.S. processing.
• Innovation: R&D into REE recycling, alternatives (e.g., magnet-free EV motors), and heavy REE separation (currently zero U.S. capacity).

Despite progress, experts warn the U.S. remains "on the back foot," with new Chinese rules (effective Dec. 1, 2025) targeting even indirect dependencies.

Looking Ahead
Rare earths underscore the U.S.-China rivalry: China's supply grip amplifies its economic power, while U.S. vulnerabilities fuel decoupling efforts. A Trump-Xi summit could ease curbs, but ongoing tariffs and tech wars suggest volatility. Long-term, diversified supply chains (e.g., via QUAD allies) may dilute China's leverage, but at higher costs—U.S. REE prices spiked 20-30% in 2025 amid restrictions. For global stability, multilateral dialogue on critical minerals is essential, lest REEs spark broader conflict.

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From DW

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I think T is going about things in a wrong way. Rather than talking tough I believe he'd be better off using diplomacy and trying to make deals that are actually beneficial to both sides. This goes not just for China but for all involved.

The world is a very interconnected place and no country can produce everything they need to survive. We need global trade and a supply chain that isn't disrupted by one country trying to dominate the rest of the world. Think of all the deprivation caused by the disruption in the supply chain brought about by WWII.

While we're not actually engaged in a violent world war at present, there are countries working to end the dollar's dominance and bring about major changes in how trade is conducted (think BRICS.) If they were to succeed in this it would not be good for us and could turn very violent. We need to come to grips with this and deal with our trade partners in an equitable manner.

jm2c

More on BRICS here:


More on trade and the supply chain here:


and here:

Interesting podcast posted as food for thought. Take it fwiw and dyodd. Nothing to see.........you know what to do.

FWIW (dyodd)

Some of the replies to this are pretty good. As usual, take this and anything I post fwiw and dyodd.

Trump be losing, I think.

How Trump’s New Tariff Rule Is Hurting Small Businesses​

Oct 12, 2025
The end of a US trade rule once meant to simplify imports is now threatening small businesses around the world. The Trump Administration’s removal of the “de minimis” tariff exemption — which let shipments under $800 enter the US duty-free — is creating new costs and confusion for independent sellers like British artist Harriet de Winton. What was designed to curb cheap imports from China is now catching small entrepreneurs in its wake.

10:00

So everything coming from China now has a 100% tax starting in Nov. Just in time for the xmas season.

BREAKING: MOFCOM spokesperson addressing Rare Earth export control and US tariff (details below)
1. Export control is not export ban, civilian use and compliant export applications can be approved. China is exerting control for national security and safeguard world peace
2. China has >900 items on its export control list. US has >3000 items on its list. US also has a long history of using minimum content rule for export control, as low as 0% (China set at 0.1%)
3. In just 20 days after Madrid, US introduced a new series of restrictions and export control on Chinese companies. Implementing 301 measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding, ignoring goodwill and concern of China
4. Threatening high tariff is not the right way. China position is consistent, we do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight. Of US insists on going its own way, China will resolutely take measures
5. Since London talk, China has been communicating with US on its 301 measures. On Oct 3, US issue specific charges on Chinese ships. China has to take countermeasures

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Having watched the American genocide in Gaza and the West Bank, I am against the American military having anymore Rare Earth minerals/metals...and no, America should not invade Canada, Greenland, Afghanistan, or anywhere else.

TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out, after his buddies play the market.