Tracking Trump's Tariffs and Turbulent Trade Talks

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Congress will do ‘what’s right’ if Trump’s tariffs are tossed by Supreme Court, House tax committee chair says​

  • Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, said Congress would do “what’s right” if the Supreme Court court rules President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal.
  • “If the courts do upset the apple cart, then we’re going to have to respond accordingly, that’s what’s appropriate and what’s right,” Smith said on CNBC.
  • The Supreme Court announced late Tuesday that it will hear the tariffs case on an expedited basis.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith said Tuesday he would “respond accordingly” if President Donald Trump’s levies are overturned by the Supreme Court, but stopped short of pledging to move them through Congress.

The Republican from Missouri said he has worked with the Trump administration “hand in glove” on tariffs, and he himself has “talked with more than 20 different countries in the last two months.”

More:

 
Fortune

Foreign investors in agriculture say U.S. tariffs could wipe them out—and they may test America in global court​

  • Foreign investors may bring tariff-related claims to arbitration, arguing U.S. tariffs may be in violation of some international investment treaties, experts tell Fortune. The claims have never succeeded against the U.S., but tariffs are ‘effectively destroying’ some agricultural businesses, they say.
Foreign investors with business in the agriculture sector are considering bringing claims against the U.S. government as some believe tariffs have violated international investment treaties that promise them fair treatment.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-in-global-court/ar-AA1MmQ8U?ocid=socialshare
 
As I understand it, Trump is imposing the tariffs under a legal justification of a national emergency response. I'm not a lawyer, but I would think that is essentially a force majeure issue with respect to the foreign investor complaint.
 

The True Cost Of Trump's Tariffs: American Farmers Speak Out​

Sep 12, 2025 #CNBC
Amid U.S.-China trade tensions, China, once the top buyer of U.S. soybeans, has halted pre-orders. That’s a loss of 21% of exports, reigniting farmers’ fears of a repeat of the agricultural loss of 2018. However, the Trump administration is rolling out aid to support affected farmers. While crop farmers face losses, U.S. shrimp farmers welcome tariffs, hoping pricier imports, over 90% of U.S. supply, will boost domestic competitiveness. Companies farmers rely on are also feeling the pinch from tariffs. On its Q3 earnings call Tractor-maker John Deere said sales were down and higher tariffs on steel and aluminum would cost it $600 million in 2025.


9:32

Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:39 Chapter 1: Soybean boycott
4:24 Chapter 2: Cheap imports
6:50 Chapter 3: U.S. farms
 
This one is a bit different.

Are Tariffs Hurting Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds? Or Helping? | Markets With Markus​

Sep 12, 2025 Diamond NestEgg Podcast | Jennifer and Markus Lammer
$30 billion of tariff revenues for August: is this good or bad for Treasury bills, notes, bonds and the overall deficit? What if President Trump's tariffs are overturned?


14:03

SOURCES:
- https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-by-source-and-outlays-by-function-of-the-u-s-government
- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/
- https://www.bls.gov/
- https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
 

Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs, Krugman Explains​


Sep 13, 2025
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argues that tariff “chaos” and Trump's immigration policies are the real drag on growth by raising costs, freezing investment, and ultimately hitting consumers. He says a 1950s-style manufacturing revival is illusory, tariff revenue won’t fix the deficit, and U.S. trade-rule credibility has suffered lasting damage. On New York City politics, he expects only marginal policy shifts if Democratic nominee for mayor Zohran Mamdani wins.


10:59
 
From the BIS. Links to 18 page pdf. Leafed through it, no comment as of yet. Posting for anyone interested.

 

US lawmakers plan to introduce bipartisan bill to kill coffee tariffs, Washington Post reports​

(Reuters) - U.S. Representatives Don Bacon and Ro Khanna plan to introduce bipartisan legislation that would exempt coffee products from any tariffs imposed after Jan. 19, 2025, the Washington Post reported on Friday, citing a copy of the draft legislation.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ton-post-reports/ar-AA1MT5Cp?ocid=socialshare
 
I smell a farmer bailout coming.

WTF about retirees and seniors???? I want a big share of all the trillions the tariffs have brought into our coffers.
 
searcher said:
I smell a farmer bailout coming.

WTF about retirees and seniors???? I want a big share of all the trillions the tariffs have brought into our coffers.
Click to expand...
That's a big part of our problems.

Ie: too many people with their hand out lookin' to get it painted.
 
searcher said:
Click to expand...

It's not free trade we want.
.....but rather FAIR trade.

"Free trade" just the Globalist's code for, America gets F'ed over.

We can't have tariffs, but every other nation has steep ones on our stuff.

Free trade is a lie.
 
Joe King said:
Ie: too many people with their hand out lookin' to get it painted.
Click to expand...

When it comes to retirees and seniors it's time for T and our congress critters to paint all of our senior hands. Lather it on thick, two and three coats.

Share the wealth baby!!!
 
searcher said:
When it comes to retirees and seniors it's time for T and our congress critters to paint all of our senior hands. Lather it on thick, two and three coats.

Share the wealth baby!!!
Click to expand...
Already are.
...and then some.

In 2024 you and other retirees got
$1.5 trillion of social security and $900 billion of medicare money spent on all of you

How much more ya want? Remember, it's not just you that's getting it. Anything you get all other retirees collecting, also get.
...and it adds up quick.

I'm pretty sure that $2.4T buys a ton (or two) of paint.

 
Joe King said:
How much more ya want? Remember, it's not just you that's getting it. Anything you get all other retirees collecting, also get.
...and it adds up quick.
Click to expand...

Love our chats Joe.

Now here's reality. Every year I get some ridiculous COLA raise in my SS pymt. In my opinion the COLA is chump change.

I want a real good raise. Let's do a 20 percent raise now, and then a 10 percent raise in 26, a 15 percent raise in 27 and a 10 percent raise in 28. Along with that, let's add 5 percent for veterans each year.

I also want no charge for Medicare and if you are a veteran, I want you to be able to use your VA health care card in any clinic, doctors office and / or hospital you choose to go to for medical care.

You do that and I'll sing your praises.
 
Other factors besides tariffs at play here.

US farmers warn of breaking point as harvest meets trade war​

Sep 20, 2025 #CNN #News
Key provisions of the 2018 farm bill are set to expire at the end of the month, with many farmers facing a gap in federal support until President Trump’s proposed replacement bill takes effect late next year. The looming lapse comes as US farmers warn they are nearing a breaking point, squeezed by volatile weather, rising costs, and the lingering impact of Trump’s tariffs. CNN’s Boris Sanchez spoke with John Boyd Jr., founder and president of the National Black Farmers Association.


5:13
 
Podcast, nothing to see. You know what to do.

Gear Up for Price Pressures in Machinery and Equipment​

Sep 20, 2025 [Podcast] The Decisive
In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam (https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-...) introduces senior economist Maxwell Clarke (https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-...) , who explores the world of machinery and equipment pricing amidst the evolving landscape of tariffs and demand fluctuations.
Max takes us into the world of machinery and equipment pricing amid the evolving landscape of tariffs and demand fluctuations. He explores how the recent tariff policies, particularly in the U.S., are creating upward price pressures on machinery and equipment, while also examining the broader implications for global markets.

Max unpacks the weak demand outlook that is limiting further price escalation and the significant challenges posed by supply disruptions that have historically driven prices higher. Additionally, we’ll take a closer look at specific categories, such as electrical machinery and construction equipment, and discuss the risks associated with parts categories that have seen substantial price increases.

As we navigate through these complex dynamics, Max discusses the uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies and their impact on business certainty. Join us as we analyze these key factors shaping the machinery market and provide insights into what lies ahead for businesses and consumers alike.


12:05
 
Not so much about tariffs, more along the lines of trade.

Commerce brokers $4B locomotive deal with Kazakhstan​

Sept. 22 (UPI) -- The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a $4.2 billion commercial deal between the government of Kazakhstan and U.S.-based Wabtec Corporation, which makes locomotives.

The deal, brokered by Commerce, was signed during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Under the agreement, Wabtec will sell 300 locomotives to Kazakhstan. The press release said it's the "largest rail equipment deal in history."

"Today's record Locomotive Deal commercial agreement for the great American company Wabtec Corporation shows the economic prosperity that President Trump's America First Trade Policy continues to deliver," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. "This landmark deal advances U.S. manufacturing jobs and accelerates growth, opportunity, and connectivity in America and Central Asia."

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...-with-kazakhstan/ar-AA1N5anv?ocid=socialshare
 
The deal with the trains could only have been done due to the weak dollar. So thousands of jobs created using the very same Tactic China does.
 

Trade wars cost billions at soybean harvest season​

Sep 23, 2025
Severe struggles are hitting soybean farmers as the harvest season gets underway. They’ve lost billions of dollars in sales already this year, and there’s no end in sight to the losses.


2:29
 
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