US Consumer Debt growing

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Consumer debt hit a fresh record at the end of 2022 while delinquency rates rose for several types of loans, the New York Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion, up about more than $1.3 trillion from a year ago as balances rose across all major categories.

Despite a decline in originations, mortgage balances increased to $11.9 trillion, up about $250 billion from the third quarter and about $1 trillion from a year ago. ...

Mortgage loans considered in "serious delinquency" of 90 days or more rose to a rate of 0.57%, still low but nearly double where they were from the year prior. Auto loan debt delinquencies rose 0.6 percentage point to 2.2% while credit card debt jumped 0.8 percentage point to 4%.

"Credit card balances grew robustly in the fourth quarter, while mortgage and auto loan balances grew at a more moderate pace, reflecting activity consistent with pre-pandemic levels," said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed.

"Although historically low unemployment has kept consumers' financial footing generally strong, stubbornly high prices and climbing interest rates may be testing some borrowers' ability to repay their debts," he added.
...


Rising rates are causing increased mortgage debt in spite of declining originations. CC debt growing thanks to double whammy of inflation at the store and rising rates on servicing debt. At some point, debt service is going to impact consumer spending, but apparently we aren't there yet - the Fed is going to keep raising rates for the time being.
 

Credit Card Nightmares: How Everyday Americans Stay Broke!​

May 21, 2023


12:00

US credit card debt has reached $986 Billion as people are using their credit cards to pay for every days expenses. Americans are broke because their wages are not rising as fast as inflation and they have an average of $7,700 in credit card balances that they are paying about 20% interest on.

Most people worry about the interest rates they get on their bank CDs, T-Bills or Money Market accounts, but they do not use their savings to pay off their credit card debt. This is one of the reasons that many Americans can not get out of credit card debt and stay broke. Should you use your savings to pay off your credit card debt?
 

Forever in debt: Why U.S. loans are getting longer​

June 5, 2023

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - Consumers facing high asset prices and rising interest rates have a few loan options. None are particularly attractive.

Buyers of homes or new cars might be better off waiting. But if you must go ahead, either face taking on a big monthly payment, or stretching out the loan term to keep the monthly bill down - as many are doing.

New car loans lasting 73-84 months (over six years) rose to 34.4% of the market in 2022 from 28.6% in 2018, according to auto information site Edmunds. A few borrowers are going even longer, with less than 1% of new car loans lasting 85 months or more.

More:

 
Can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.

I think a lot of people are betting that we're all gonna implode, and this debt won't matter. Nothing will - we won't be driving to work or going to work. We'll be bugging out of our homes before they're even foreclosed.

I don't know that I subscribe to that moral stance, although I think they're probably right about the crash. It's something to think about.
 
The economy and money supply can NOT expand without an expansion of Debt at the same time. It's how a debt based system "works".
 
The economy and money supply can NOT expand without an expansion of Debt at the same time. It's how a debt based system "works".
It works until it doesn't work anymore.

ALL fiat currencies die. We're watching the death throes of this one.

How to expand an economy without debt? PRODUCTIVITY.

Make more; make it smarter; profit from it and enjoy the fruits of your labor.
 
Open domestic oil production.
 
Related tangent:
...
As of July, 61% of adults still said they are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report, slightly more than last year's 59%.
...
Now, 78% of consumers earning less than $50,000 a year and 65% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 were living paycheck to paycheck in July, both up from a year ago, LendingClub found. Of those earning $100,000 or more, only 44% reported living paycheck to paycheck.

Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about finances, according to a separate CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in March, largely due to inflation, rising interest rates and a lack of savings.

Only 45% of adults said they have an emergency fund. For those who do have emergency savings, about 26% polled said they have less than $5,000 saved.

That survey found that 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

 
At a time when Americans are saddled with more credit-card debt and higher interest rates, a new bill is seeking to cap credit card annual percentage rates at 18%.

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, this week unveiled the Capping Credit-Card Interest Rates Act, highlighting how APRs have been climbing.
...
Consumers with a credit-card balance faced an average 22.16% APR during the second quarter, up from 16.6% a year earlier, Federal Reserve figures show.
...
The bill has a slim shot at passage even as credit-card debt rises, observers say. Americans now have $1 trillion in credit-card debt, up from $887 billion a year ago.
...
In a research note Tuesday, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said the odds are low that Congress will pass Hawley’s bill, and said the senator is “staking out a populist position to energize voters.”

“A federal usury cap has been a nonstarter in the House. We do not see that changing,” Seiberg wrote. (Hawley is running for re-election next year, along with many others in the Senate. The terms of more than 30 senators expire in January 2025.)
...

 
Whether it's reasonable or NOT...we do NOT want government interfering in private affairs! Then the cost of credit, like the cost of EVERY OTHER politicized good or service...becomes a function OF POLITICS.

Which is how our healthcare system got so sick, and now so deliberately lethal.

You no like the interest? CLOSE THE ACCOUNT! It's not rocket science. If you can't pay it back, don't BORROW!

After years of chasing the low-interest cards; and then, the year-long teaser promotional rates...and now, with Citi Criminal Consortium owning almost all the issuing banks...I now have three cards, two from credit unions, one from Citimob...and I have this much on balance:

$0.00

The only way I'd run up the balance now, is if I were about to bug out and go dark. Even bankruptcy is not a refuge...again, because these things became POLITICAL.
 
Doing that without a plan to get OUT of the rut, is insanity.

The time to close accounts and cut up cards is BEFORE you're even tempted. Because, to gain a few month's breathing time, you make your future a living hell and your prospects even worse.
 
...
But here’s one more potential stock headwind, courtesy of our call of the day from Jefferies’ consumer team, led by Randal Konik, who warn of a “significant risk to consumer spending ahead,” from the looming resumption of student loan payments, which restart on Oct. 1.

They surveyed U.S. consumers with outstanding student loan debt, and found that 90% are “at least somewhat concerned about being able to meet all of their monthly expenses, while apparel, footwear, accessories, restaurants, and big-ticket items are likely to see the biggest pullbacks in spending.”
...


Lot's of people are going to suffer when the economy slows (as a result of the Fed raising rates). Will our government step in again to provide relief? I'm not sure that they have the political capitol to get something done.
 
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.

Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it's an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.

It is far from over, the firm predicts.

Losses currently stand at 3.63%, up 1.5 percentage points from the bottom, and Goldman sees them rising another 1.3 percentage points to 4.93%. This comes at a time when Americans owe more than $1 trillion on credit cards, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

"We think delinquencies could continue to underperform seasonality through the middle of next year and don't see losses peaking until late 2024 / early 2025 for most issuers," analyst Ryan Nash wrote in a note Friday.

What is unusual is that the losses are accelerating outside of an economic downturn, he pointed out.
...


Consumers are struggling to make payments on credit card debt while the economy is "good". Imagine what will happen when the economy falters...
 

Consumers are struggling to make payments on credit card debt while the economy is "good". Imagine what will happen when the economy falters...
Stupid is as stupid does.

This mess was a long time coming. Anyone who had ECON 101 knew what all those Stimmy checks would lead to.

The wise recipient either bought PMs (or survival hardware) or just cash. Cash is a negative investment, given double-digit inflation, but in times like we're looking at this fall, it's essential to have some.
 
The kicker is going to be when debt destruction bleeds out of consumer credit (card) markets to housing/mortgage and other debt markets. That's going to hurt banks and cause even tighter lending requirements in the housing markets.
 
The kicker is going to be when debt destruction bleeds out of consumer credit (card) markets to housing/mortgage and other debt markets. That's going to hurt banks and cause even tighter lending requirements in the housing markets.
That's not even the kicker.

It's going to happen as the next step.

The 2008 staged-chaos showed us, one of the first things many debt-slaves will do, when overwhelmed, will be, stop paying the mortgage. Why? First, the debt-lifestyle buyer (as opposed to buyers locked in for decades, who bought in more normal times)...the debt owner has little equity. Zero down, or minimal down, means minimal risk. FOR THE BUYER.

And it takes TIME to evict someone from a property. And it's expensive - in times past, banks made accommodations. Of course the debt-spender expects this crisis to be similar.

This is before the credit-card bill is ignored - they can be turned off immediately; and before the car note is behind - it's easy to repossess a car.

So...massive mortgage delinquencies; and then FannyFarmerFreddieKruger comes crashing down. I don't know how that will effect private banking, since there's essentially no private mortgages held by banks anymore...but it could easily accelerate a panic and spread.
 
More Americans think they’re in danger of falling behind on their debts.

People’s expectation of missing a minimum payment on a debt — anything from credit cards, to auto loans to student loans and mortgages — increased in September to the highest level since May 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Tuesday. Survey respondents said there was a 12.5% chance on average that they would not be able to make the minimum required payment on a debt, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Two groups reported the biggest increases in worries about debts in September: Those who are below the age of 40 and who have some college education, and those with an annual household income below $50,000, the researchers said.
...
Americans’ credit card debt topped $1 trillion in the first and second quarters of 2023, a record high, according to New York Fed data. As the Fed has raised interest rates to tamp down inflation, borrowing has become more expensive, with the average cred-t card annual percentage rate now at 24.45%, according to LendingTree, the highest since the online lending marketplace started tracking it in 2019.
...

 
Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found.
...
Credit card delinquency rates also rose across the board, according to the New York Fed, but especially among millennials, or borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39, who are burdened by high levels of student loan debt.

With most people feeling strained by higher prices — particularly for food, gas and housing — more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month or falling behind on payments, and a greater percentage of balances are going more than 180 days delinquent, according to a separate report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Nearly one-tenth of credit card users find themselves in "persistent debt" where they are charged more in interest and fees each year than they pay toward the principal — a pattern that is increasingly difficult to break, the consumer watchdog said.
...

 
We got there because no one taught them lessons when they were young - lessons about borrowed money.

When you have to charge ONE PURCHASE of essentials because you don't have money...you're in trouble. Time to sit down and start working on a Plan B. Food Bank; buy cheaper; sell stuff or even burn it, if you have to, collect insurance.

But digging a hole with credit-card debt, will make it a grave.
 

The problem isn’t inflation. It’s prices.​


Life in 2023 means being in a constant state of sticker shock.

You walk out of the grocery store feeling like you’re not really sure what happened, but somehow, your normal fare ran you $50 more than you swear it should have. Did Diet Coke always cost that much? Or eggs? Maybe you’ve been putting off buying that new car in the hope prices go back to where they were pre-pandemic, but you’re starting to feel like the wait is awfully long. Or, the morning after a post-work happy hour, you’re left scratching your head. You swear you had two glasses of wine, but the size of your credit card receipt makes you wonder if it wasn’t four. “How expensive everything is today” is a top theme of conversation. The whole situation can be infuriating.

 
And, what, pray tell, is causing prices to go up?

Greedy store owners? How come they couldn't do this before? Is greed something new?

Now we just...KNOW...it cannot be currency debasement, aka Inflation. We know that because our masters and betters in the mediuh forbid us to think that's so.
 
The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03%, according to the new CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

The new Retail Monitor, debuting Monday, is a joint product of CNBC and the National Retail Federation based on data from Affinity Solutions, a leading consumer purchase insights company. The data is sourced from more than 9 billion annual credit and debit card transactions collected and anonymized by Affinity and accounting for more than $500 billion in sales. The cards are issued by more than 1,400 financial institutions.

The data differs from the Census Bureau's Retail Sales report as it is the result of actual consumer purchases, while the Census relies on survey data. The government data is frequently revised as additional survey data become available. The CNBC/NRF Retail monitor is not revised as it's calculated from actual transactions during the month. It is, however, seasonally adjusted, using the same program employed by Census.
...
"The Retail Monitor heralds a new era of retail intelligence, where data isn't just a resource – it's a roadmap to understanding and engaging with the modern consumer," Affinity Solutions CEO and founder Jonathan Silver said. Affinity is also a leading provider of data to Wall Street.

In coming months, the Retail Monitor will provide demographic breakdowns of spending by age, income and geography.

 

How America Racked Up A $1 Trillion Credit Card Bill​

Dec 3, 2023


5:35
 
The same way we wound up with any of a dozen critical problems that are threatening our survival.

A malfunction between the ears, multiplied by hundreds of millions.
 
... according to economist Carl Weinberg.

"Consumers are just waking up to the fact that they're financing their spending by running up their credit cards, and that the interest on those credit cards is over the top, out of control, off the hook right now," the chief economist of High Frequency Economics told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday.

"That's going to lead to, I think, a retrenchment in consumer spending, as we get into the new year."

Weinberg's base case assumes a slowdown in growth, rather than a recession.

"But the risk is, and I agree it's a nontrivial risk, that consumers get into trouble," Weinberg said, noting figures from the New York Federal Reserve showing a rise in delinquencies on credit cards.

"Real incomes have just started coming back again, and not by nearly enough to cover some of the increases in the debt burdens that we're seeing. So credit to the household sector, consumer credit cards, that's where the downside risk is. That's where the risk to this Goldilocks forecast is, and I'm watching it."
...

More:

 
... the share of credit card debt falling behind for the first time climbed to 8% in the third quarter. That’s up from 6.5% in the first quarter of 2023.

It’s been more than a decade since the share of 30-day credit card delinquency was that high, according to household debt statistics from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At a time when markets wonder about the ongoing strength of consumers and their mood, new Goldman Sachs estimates say credit card delinquencies will keep rising in the new year.

The rate of new credit card delinquencies will climb to 9.5% by the first half of 2024 before it eases to around 9% by the end of the year, researchers said in a Thursday note. Low-income card holders will be strained the most, they added.
...
Data is showing more people missing mortgage payments. The default rates on past-due Federal Housing Administration loans reached a nine-year high in November.

Though overall mortgage delinquency rates are still below pre-pandemic levels, it’s a trend “worth watching” one observer said.

 

BUY NOW POOR LATER (BNPL) - LIVING A LAVISH LIFESTYLE ON CREDIT CARD DEBT - THIS IS ECONOMIC SUICIDE​

Americans are living and surviving off their credit cards what happens when they run out??????


23:41

**Nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.
 
I got to the 12-minute mark.

He makes the usual Captain Obvious remarks about credit-cards being a not-good way to pay for emergency expenses or rising living costs. Okay, wonderful.

THEN, at 12-and-change, he starts the usual Leftist lambasting for "Greed" - as if it was CHOICE to raise prices after prices of supplies, labor, energy, all have exploded.

I didn't go further - I suppose it goes into a "Take Action!" trope. Sure, write your Congresscretin - get some Price Controls imposed.

NEVER a mention that the reason prices are exploding are:

--Restrictions on sources and supply of energy

--Hyper-regulation of agriculture and business, with the INTENT of putting farmers and some businesses OUT of business

--DEBASEMENT OF THE CURRENCY.

I guess it's good to hear what the other side is telling its credulous followers, though.
 
Walmart now offers the BNPL at its checkouts. The thing popped up for me yesterday when I was buying a marked down apple pie.

WALMART ADDS BUY NOW, PAY LATER TO SELF-CHECKOUT​

 
It's the economic implosion. Soon to add massive, unpayable consumer debt to its other problems.

If I were twenty, with no credit rating and no real future, I'd say, "Why not?" and just buy on that program with plans to stiff it later, too.
 
...
According to new data that was just released by the Federal Reserve, consumer borrowing increased much faster than expected during the month of December…
...
For quite a while, U.S. consumers were able to handle rapidly rising debt levels, but now it appears that we are reaching a breaking point.

In fact, we are being told that “delinquencies are at their highest level since 2012”…
...
And actually the average credit card interest rate is even higher than anything that we witnessed back then…

More:


Unrest will grow in an election year more and more people struggle to maintain their standard of living.
 
...
Loan defaults certainly rose in the fourth quarter at Capital One. The company's net charge-off rate on domestic credit cards jumped to 5.35%, up from 3.22% a year earlier. Charge-offs have risen sharply from their ultra-low levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, when stimulus funds and higher consumer savings helped cardholders stay on track.

But cardholders are now falling into delinquency status in the same seasonal patterns that were evident prior to COVID-19, so the post-pandemic worsening appears to have "run its course," said Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank.

"We feel great about where we've stabilized, and we see really a good assessment of our future," Fairbank said Thursday on the McLean, Virginia-based company's earnings call.

The upbeat outlook lines up with that of Synchrony Financial, another major credit card issuer that said it expects losses to peak soon at levels a bit above their pre-pandemic range.

The relatively rosy outlook at those two companies contrasts with a gloomier forecast by Discover Financial Services, which said its credit card losses will be significantly above 2019 levels. The card issuer Bread Financial also reported a sharp rise in charge-offs last quarter.
...
Stephens analyst Vincent Caintic was a bit more downbeat about Capital One, telling clients that charge-offs stabilizing 15% higher than they were in 2019 "doesn't put us at ease." He also flagged the sharply higher charge-offs and delinquency figures in the fourth quarter as a sign of "increasing consumer stress."

"Although management reiterates confidence that credit has normalized, we don't see it in the data," Caintic wrote.
...

 

Workers are paying to get part of their paychecks early. It’s ‘payday lending on steroids,’ one expert says​


  • So-called “earned wage access” programs allow workers to take a portion of their paychecks before payday, often for a fee.
  • They’ve grown rapidly: $9.5 billion in wages was accessed early during 2020, triple the $3.2 billion accessed in 2018, according to the latest data by Datos Insights.
  • However, in some cases, high fees and frequent use can translate to an annual interest rate of more than 330%, according to experts, regulators and consumer advocates.
  • EWA programs are also known as daily pay, instant pay, accrued wage access, same-day pay and on-demand pay.
Millions of American workers are paying for early access to their paychecks. In some cases, it can come with a steep price.

So-called “earned wage access” programs, which operate either directly to the consumer or through employers, let workers tap a portion of their wages before payday, often for a fee. The services have ballooned in popularity.

While there can be various benefits for consumers — like quick access to funds in the event of an emergency — some services share characteristics of high-cost debt such as payday loans that can cause financial harm, according to some experts and consumer advocates.

 
There is nothing new under the sun.

That used to be called "Payroll Advances" - and yes, companies used to charge for it. The payroll clerks hated it - rightly so, because it was another set of books to manage (before computers) and another deduction to enter on payroll withholding.

It screwed up the routines - and was another way for bookkeeping errors to occur.

I think it was, New York and several other states (I worked in NY at the time) outlawed deductions for payroll advances, and so that was the end of that program. Not long afterward, bank credit cards became ubiquitous.
 

100-year-old explains how he still has $1 million saved: 'I always lived within my means. I'm not a gambler.'​

  • The number of people age 100 and older is expected to grow eight-fold by 2050.
  • Bill Stovall shows what it's like to live for a century without running out of savings.
  • "I always lived within my means," he said. "I'm not a gambler."
Every morning, Bill Stovall wakes up at around 8:30 a.m. The first thing he does is speak to his wife's ashes, which are in a pink urn on his fireplace mantle. He keeps it brief. "I say: 'Good morning. I miss you and I love you. I hope you have a good day,'" said Stovall, who is 100.

Living for an entire century brings challenges. In addition to the death of his wife, Martha, in 2022, Stovall has lost nearly all of his friends. The days at his house in Cumming, Georgia, can get lonely. He's survived colon cancer and skin cancer. He's now deaf.

But one subject that doesn't cause him much stress is money. His nest egg is still around $1 million.

"I always lived within my means," Stovall said. "I'm not a gambler."

More:

 
I keep a credit card for emergencies and always keep it paid off. Most months, I don't even get a bill in the mail because there is no balance.
 
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