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Old 05-29-2012, 02:36 PM   #21
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greeks...cording-greeks

It is bad when your own country picks your country as the most corrupt on the continent!
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Old 05-31-2012, 07:10 AM   #22
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I was on the road last week attending a conference for my day job, so I missed some of the news I would normally highlight here. This is interesting enough to highlight even though it's a few days old:
Quote :
Behind the scenes at the G-8 and NATO summit meetings, some significant decisions were made that will impact over the coming weeks.

The critical decision at the G-8 meeting and several of the bilateral meetings that took place on the sidelines of the Camp David gathering centered on the decision to plunge ahead with the bailout of the European banks in an effort to save the Euro system, with Greece still inside. President Obama is terrified that a financial meltdown of the Euro system will spill over into Wall Street and result in his losing the November elections. Behind the scenes around Camp David, Christine Legarde put the IMF squarely behind a bailout of the European banks, with the full backing of the Federal Reserve and Treasury in the United States to boost the leveraged lending of the European Central Bank (ECB) to prop up the European banks. ECB will take junk bonds and other vastly over-priced assets as collateral for loans to the Spanish, Greek and other European banks. This will offset an additional estimated $500 billion in new write-offs by bondholders of Greek debt.

The bottom line is that if Greece leaves the Euro, the contagion will spread overnight to Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and, perhaps, even Italy. So, the IMF, the Obama Administration and the ECB are all on board to further delay the reality of the financial and banking crisis through hyperinflationary measures. The idea is that the situation will take many months to fully play out, and Obama and his re-election team hope that the system will hold together past the November elections.

In his sideline meeting with new French President Hollande, Obama reached a full agreement on this perpetuation of the Euro. This is an area where Hollande and Merkel will agree to disagree. They both want to defend the Euro, but Hollande will continue to insist that the austerity must be limited and a growth program initiated. This is actually impossible to accomplish, but this is the growing perspective of the Eurosocialists, including Hollande and his colleagues in Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Italian Socialist Party (PSI). A majority of Greek voters are in favor of staying in the Euro, so long as the austerity is reduced.

Hollande will make another effort this week at the European Monetary Union heads of state meeting to push for Eurobonds, as one way to implement this bailout plan. Merkel will likely oppose and block this latest Eurobond argument. The total amount of assets on the books of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank fall far short of the currently estimated 4 trillion euro liability of the European private banks.

This was the single-most important decision taken at the G-8 meeting, and it was a deeply flawed decision that will have severe consequences. For Obama, the crucial question is: Will the consequences hit before or after the November elections in the United States? This may be the deciding factor in the outcome of those elections.
...
More: http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/05/27/...harry-schultz/
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Old 05-31-2012, 07:30 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
I was on the road last week attending a conference for my day job, so I missed some of the news I would normally highlight here. This is interesting enough to highlight even though it's a few days old:

More: http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/05/27/...harry-schultz/
I have been betting that the problems in Europe will drag out until shortly after the U.S. election.

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Old 06-02-2012, 10:21 AM   #24
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-gr...ok-childs-play

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Why A Grexit Would Make Lehman Look Like Childs Play

Maybe I’m wrong, but every time I look at the possibility of a Greek exit right now I see it spiraling out of control and dragging down the entire global economy. I hear and read the arguments of why it is controllable and they just don’t seem credible. They either link a Greek devaluation to other devaluations that have little, if anything in common. They also seem to ignore human nature and how the markets will likely respond. I think with planning and time, a Greek exit would be manageable but right now it would create chaos, first within Europe and then the globe.

The ECB, EFSF and IMF will take massive losses ..........
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Old 06-02-2012, 10:27 AM   #25
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I agree with Rblong. If Greece exits, there will be a cascade of CDS redemptions, and all other risky sovereigns will require more collateral on CDS, and on and on and on. Eventually, the whole thing comes down in a smoking heap of worldwide destruction. The only thing that can stop it is if all CDS were to be declared null and void immediately and declared illegal as well.
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Old 06-02-2012, 11:20 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
I agree with Rblong. If Greece exits, there will be a cascade of CDS redemptions, and all other risky sovereigns will require more collateral on CDS, and on and on and on. Ebentually, the whole thing comes down in a smoking heap of worldwide destruction. The only thing that can stop it is if all CDS were to be declared null and void immediately and declared illegal as well.
I have been assuming the swaps will be declared null and void when Greece defaults. It may be through law changes or forced haircuts, but it will be done quietly.
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Old 06-02-2012, 11:27 AM   #27
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I'm not sure how quite they will be able to keep it, because after all, they are supposed to be instruments of protection; insurance policies.

If someone arbitrarily abrogated a contract in to which I entered with a third party, I would be murderously angry. Imagine how angry all those people holding swaps on nearly a trillion in cumulative debt will be. That's a lot of cabbage man. I rather believe they won't just go quietly in to the night.
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Old 06-02-2012, 11:30 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
I'm not sure how quite they will be able to keep it, because after all, they are supposed to be instruments of protection; insurance policies.

If someone arbitrarily abrogated a contract in to which I entered with a third party, I would be murderously angry. Imagine how angry all those people holding swaps on nearly a trillion in cumulative debt will be. That's a lot of cabbage man. I rather believe they won't just go quietly in to the night.
True, but think about how much people lost when they were forced to take haircuts on existing Greek debt in the past two years. Why was there not more of an uproar over that?


Also, if I remember correctly, those that had haircuts forced upon them could not invoke their CDS policies.
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Old 06-02-2012, 11:34 AM   #29
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Benjamen, those who agreed to haircuts were not eligible to cash in on CDS because the haircuts were "voluntary". Those with english law bonds who held out recently got paid face value.

The haircuts were presented to the big boys much the same way as TARP was presented to Congress. They were told the world would end if they forced the issue and triggered CDS and they fell for it.
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Old 06-02-2012, 03:25 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by benjamen View Post:
I have been assuming the swaps will be declared null and void when Greece defaults. It may be through law changes or forced haircuts, but it will be done quietly.
Theyve already got a date when they get together and decide how a CDS will trigger.
And yes, even the greedy controllers realise thay cant let any CDS trigger ..... ever .....

unless they can figure a way that allows some that will benefit them, before declaring the remainder null.

Or am i being a bit cynical
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Old 06-05-2012, 01:52 PM   #31
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http://rt.com/business/news/greek-dr...rg-trades-769/

"Traders around the world have been staring at their Bloomberg screens, hardly believing their eyes. The electronic information platform has been showing details for possible Greek Drachma trading."

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Old 06-05-2012, 02:14 PM   #32
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Old 06-14-2012, 07:09 AM   #33
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Greece bans political polls ahead of the election to prevent bank runs, but it is not working:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...+World+News%29

"Bankers said up to 800 million euros ($1 billion) were leaving major banks daily and retailers said some of the money was being used to buy pasta and canned goods in case of shortages, as fears of returning to the drachma were fanned by rumors that a radical leftist leader may win the election."

"As the election approaches, publishing polls is now legally banned and in the ensuing information vacuum, party officials have been leaking contradictory "secret polls"."
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Old 06-14-2012, 08:14 AM   #34
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Old 06-14-2012, 08:30 AM   #35
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Intrade has the odds of Syriza winning at 31%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=761484

68% it's New Democracy

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=761483
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Old 06-20-2012, 08:40 AM   #36
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http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/bre...ece-divisions/

"New Democracy's Samaras now faces the awkward task of convincing the centre-left PASOK movement to join a coalition charged with implementing highly unpopular spending cuts and privatizations, while the economy nosedives.

Under the terms of the international bailout, the new government must fire up to 150,000 civil servants, slash spending by 11 billion euros this month, sell off a swathe of state-owned companies, improve tax collection and open closed professions to competition.

Once Greece's ruling party, PASOK's support collapsed to just 12.3 percent in Sunday's vote, giving the two pro-bailout parties just 40 percent of the popular vote, not a strong mandate for austerity."

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Old 06-20-2012, 08:42 AM   #37
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-bail-out.html

"While Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece's New Democracy party, scrambled to forge a coalition with Pasok, his officials admitted their first task would be to renegotiate the €130bn (£104.4bn) bail-out agreed in May."

"New Democracy won 129 of the 300 parliamentary seats in Sunday's election, including a bonus 50 seats for coming first. Mr Samaras has three days to form a ruling alliance with the mainstream socialists of Pasok and the Democratic Left."

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Old 06-20-2012, 09:10 AM   #38
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After 223 days, Greece finally has a government!
http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/20/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2

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Old 06-20-2012, 09:26 AM   #39
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Great! lol. Now what?
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Old 06-20-2012, 09:27 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Great! lol. Now what?
Keep promising to fix things, pretend to fix things, get more bailout money. Rinse, Repeat!

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