Greek exit coming soon

[ancona]

Greece is already talking pretty tough. They have a potential ally in Putin, who covets their coast and probably wants to ink an agreement to operate some sort of a base there. The EU had better play this game carefully and not let their ego get in their way. The talking I've heard so far is little more than veiled threats of being locked out of the bond market, no liquidity and so on. Russia and China could fill in that gap without breaking a sweat, and they are patiently waiting to do just that.

 

[ancona]

Looks like we're right at the gates of the end game. The ECB is slowly starting to realize that Greece has had it with austerity, EU technocrats in their government and the onerous terms of the bailout. When they leave the EU, we are going to see some epic swings in every single market. Time to buckle up.

 

[mmerlinn]

The ECB is slowly starting to realize that Greece has had it with austerity, EU technocrats in their government and the onerous terms of the bailout. When they leave the EU, we are going to see some epic swings in every single market. Time to buckle up.

Don't sell the ECB short. I suspect that the ECB still has a lot of tricks to delay the inevitable.

Be sure to remember that the ECB is headed by Mario Draghi whose name means WAR DRAGON. Dragons do not roll over and play dead very often without a terrific fight.

So when will the dragon be overcome? Probably not for another two years. In the meantime hold on to your seats as the fight heats up. Like you say, epic swings are coming, and in fact have already started.

 

[pmbug]

... today before midnight Yanis Varoufakis will submit a list of "reform measures" it plans to undertake to the Troika, pardon, Institutions. But while we patiently await the reveal of the full list of proposed Greek reforms, we can fast forward to the German reaction, because we already know what it will be:

Nein! Nein! Nein!
...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...posals-wage-hikes-foreclosure-protection-red-

 

[pmbug]

Mish had a nice piece on this issue:

On Friday, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras backed down on nearly every promise made to the Greek electorate except one, to stay on the euro. After so much tough rhetoric, the question is why?

I believe the answer is the Greek primary account surplus vanished, making it impossible to honor all commitments made.

Simply put, Greece had to choose between staying on the euro and honoring the other campaign promises.
...
Nonetheless, those expecting Tsipras to immediately honor all pledges, just had their illusion shattered.

... comment made by Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan yesterday. "Once you get them into the safe space for the next four months, there'll be another set of discussions which will effectively involve the negotiation of a third program for Greece."

"Won a Battle, Not the War"

Will Tspiras finally draw a line in the sand or will he accept another €53.8 Billion crammed down his throat?

I think so. But before he can do so, Greece needs to have a solid primary account surplus. That explains why the heart of his reform program involves a crackdown on "tax evasion" and cutting civil service.

To default on the Troika and stay in the eurozone, Greece must have a primary account surplus. Tsipras has a four month window to achieve that.
...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/02/tspiras-claims-to-have-won-battle-not.html

I will be amazed if Greece manages to build a healthy primary account in four months.

 

[rblong2us]

if a grexit is likely to topple the whole house of cards then a back door refi could be an option

As to how this might happen ?

Perhaps a greek 'bad bank' could mop up the debt and a loan from Norway or some slightly obscure source ?

If it can be predicted I suspect it can be patched over.