2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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India’s Largest Metals Refinery Ran Out of Silver for the First Time in History​

Shortages hit London too. The silver market is broken.

India-Silver-Spot-Prices.png

For months, Vipin Raina had been bracing for a stampede of buying from Indian customers loading up on silver to honor the Hindu goddess of wealth.

But when it came, he was still blown away. At the start of last week, his company, India’s largest precious metals refinery, ran out of silver stock for the first time in its history.

Read more here...
 
So lease rates go through the roof which kills production which then causes premiums to spike and then the bankers crash the prices. Anyone still believe the bankers have lost control?

If you want 2025 eagles you are now paying 11dollars over spot (Roughly). That kills demand.

That last SD bullion video says they dont know where they are going to get product from. Sounds like they want to create artificial demand by saying that to be honest. If they were truly running low on product they could easily raise the buy back prices until sellers come to the table. Thats how supply and demand works. They did raise the buyback on eagles today so there is a supply issue with those but that's created by the US mint not meeting demand. (We should all write to our congressmen to complain. )

I hate the bankers as much as anyone can but that doesn't change the fact that you dont bet against them when they are going short. Your not going to squeeze them into bankruptcy when they have access to unlimited capital and can naked short as many contracts as they want with no repercussions. If they run out of money they go to uncle Sammy and get more.
 
Voodoo said:
Tried one of my first London Fix low trades. Sold a short term SLV $47-45 put spread. Risk like $120 to make $80 that expires in a week.

I think this is just more paper being thrown at the problem. The EFP spreads have bounced around but with this slam they are widening again.
Click to expand...

See, this was me being dumb. Didn't wait for the 2nd hit and the typical Tuesday smash.

Anyway, I had to pay to roll this another week and widened to $46.50 - $43.50 spread
 

Alasdair Macleod - Why Gold and Silver are Crashing​

Paul Buitink welcomes back former stockbroker, precious metals expert and author Alasdair Macleod about the current onslaught in the precious metals markets. He explains why gold and silver prices are crashing and how to deal with that as a retail investor. Is the silver squeeze over now?

He also paints the bigger picture, the role of China and how fiat money is ending, making a comparison with Weimar Germany. Alasdair gives his brutal opinion on Bitcoin too.
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The EU will collapse

Martin Armstrong: EU On the Brink, War Risk Next Year​

Recorded on October 22, 2025.
Economist and forecaster Martin Armstrong (ArmstrongEconomics) joins Natural Resource Stocks to break down capital flows, the EU’s structural flaws, banking risk, and why his war and euro models are flashing a panic cycle next year. We dig into sanctions blowback, BRICS, gold as geopolitical insurance, and his provocative peace-and-industry proposal around rare earths.

Key Topics:• AI froth vs. “flight-to-safety” bid into the Dow during geopolitical risk.• Why the EU’s failure to consolidate debt dooms its bond market plumbing.

• How member-level debt holdings create contagion across EU banks.
• Germany’s energy shock, EV mandates, and shrinking industrial base.
• Migration shocks + recession = rising civil unrest.
• Gold moves on geopolitics more than CPI; central bank buying logic.
• Sanctions, SWIFT removal, and why that catalyzed BRICS realignment.
• 2026 “panic” risk in war and the euro.
• A rare-earths JV peace gambit: US capital + Russian know-how.

Chapters
00:00 Intro: “watching the world go insane”
00:58 Markets: AI bubble vs. safety flows into Dow
06:24 Will the EU collapse? Debt consolidation failure & banking risk
09:33 Germany’s policy spiral: energy, EVs, and jobs
12:03 Migration in downturns → unrest dynamics
20:57 US banks, gold’s geopolitics, and capital flows
24:37 SWIFT, sanctions, and the BRICS response
26:42 NATO talk, EU choices: war distraction vs. reckoning
27:53 Pensions, negative rates, and policy traps
33:45 Models: global conflict risk next year
38:12 Year-end into 2026: “panic” cycles in war and euro
41:20 Ukraine–NATO–EU political pressure anecdotes
42:58 Capital controls creeping across EU states
44:07 A peace plan brief for Washington (rare earths focus)
54:50 Where to read the proposal (ArmstrongEconomics)
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People have been calling for an EU collapse since its inception. The WEFfers won't let it go so easily.

~~~

pmbug said:
Gold and silver both up from yesterday's close in overnight trading in China. Silver remains at a premium to LBMA/COMEX while gold appears at a slight discount. The SFE silver vault reports continued outflow, but as expected now that SGE/SFE silver is at a premium to LBMA/COMEX, the outflow is roughly have of what it was the last few days. Will we see it reverse back to inflows?
Click to expand...

 
Banking system already broke back when LTCM blew up

BREAKING: Another Subprime Lenders Just Went Bankrupt (What You Need To Know)​

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The Domino Effect Begins: Jamie Dimon’s Cockroach Warning Coming To Fruition

Jamie Dimon’s recent warning that when you see one cockroach, there are probably more is now playing out almost line for line. First came Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender that collapsed under the weight of bad loans and alleged fraud. Then First Brands, a heavily indebted auto parts manufacturer, filed for Chapter 11. Now, PrimaLend Capital Partners, another subprime lender has fallen after defaulting on its bond payments, pushed into bankruptcy by unpaid creditors.

These aren’t isolated blowups; they’re the first visible cracks in a broader credit contraction that’s been quietly building beneath the surface. What links them all is the same structure of fragility: loans to high risk borrowers, funded through short term credit and securitized into complex bonds that depend on constant refinancing. When the Fed held rates near zero, that model worked but after two years of policy tightening and an average fed funds rate above 4.4%, the entire subprime ecosystem is choking on its own leverage.

The subprime auto sector is the perfect early warning signal because it sits at the intersection of consumer stress and financial engineering. Borrowers with weaker credit are defaulting at rising rates, repossessions are spiking, and lenders like PrimaLend that rely on bond markets for funding are discovering those markets have no appetite for risk. This is about a chain reaction through the private credit and asset backed markets that financed them.

Dimon’s cockroaches aren’t just in subprime auto, they’re spread across the shadow banking system. Many private credit funds, BDCs, and securitized lenders hold similar exposure, marked to model rather than market. The first failures are surfacing where consumers feel the pinch first, but as liquidity tightens further, the stress will migrate up the credit spectrum, from auto loans to small business credit, to leveraged corporates, and eventually to the banks that lent to them.

These bankruptcies are the financial equivalent of the first tremors before an earthquake. What looks contained in subprime auto today is really the credit cycle shifting into its next phase, one where overextended lenders, not just borrowers, start defaulting. The cockroaches are moving fast, and the lights have only just come on.
 


BREAKING: JP Morgan releases new report stating gold prices could exceed $8,000/oz by 2028 as investors increasingly use it to hedge equity risk.This would make gold a $60+ trillion asset in 3 years.
Quote

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Oct 22
We just witnessed history:Yesterday, gold prices fell -5.7%, marking the largest 1-day drop since April 2013.
 
Gold is bouncing along the bottom right now forming a new base. Newmont Mining had better earnings than expected. We have another couple of years of this until gold hits $5500-$6k.
 
pmbug said:
People have been calling for an EU collapse since its inception. The WEFfers won't let it go so easily.
Click to expand...
They're destroying themselves with migrants on the dole and pensioners.

Destroying Nordstream killed their energy costs and manufacturing.

Pretty soon there won't be anything to let go worth saving.
 
Interesting



The LBMA is a part of the U.S. Empire’s globalization efforts to suppress the prices of #Gold and #Silver and ensure the flow of physical #Gold and #Silver uninterrupted.

Since the BRICS+ started moving away from the U.S. empire and began to find outer avenues to recycle their trade surplus instead of putting it into U.S. Treasuries, the LBMA unintentionally became a proxy mechanism for the BRICS+ to suck physical #Gold and #Silver from the U.S. empire.

It no longer makes any strategic sense for the U.S. to export cheap physical #Gold and #Silver to the LBMA just so that the LBMA is drained by India and China of its physical #Gold and #Silver.

#Silver is also a critical mineral that is crucial to the U.S. Military Industrial Complex.
 
I should have posted this yesterday - apologies... second week in a row they raise margins

 

FAKE Buffett AI: “DUMP GOLD!” – TIME TO BUY! They Want YOUR Money​

“The garbage that is out there… all they are trying to do is manipulate the market for their own personal gain,” Todd "Bubba" Horwitz states, referring to the AI-generated deep fake videos that were being used in a coordinated campaign to attack gold. In today's interview with Daniela Cambone, Bubba breaks down why this desperate attack is a signal of strength for gold, not weakness. He argues that after a powerful rally, this is exactly the kind of shakeout you should expect. “You get these big dramatic up moves... there's going to be a pullback. Don't worry about it. Use that as a buying opportunity,” he advises. Find out why the "charlatans" are so desperate to get your gold now and why Bubba believes every portfolio needs this hard asset protection.
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