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Morning Bid: Big Tech see-saw flips positive, yen swings wildly​

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A volatile week for Wall Street megacaps looks set to end with a positive twist as Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab earnings wowed the gallery overnight, while the yen plunged anew in Asia as the Bank of Japan left policy on hold.

After a day in which Meta's (META.O), opens new tab outsize spend on artificial intelligence appear to spook investors and sent both its stock and the wider tech sector into tailspin, its rivals appeared to steady the ship overnight.



Daimler Truck faces imminent strike by over 7,300 US workers​

April 26 (Reuters) - Daimler Truck (DTGGe.DE), opens new tab must reach a new labor contract with over 7,300 hourly workers at six facilities in the U.S. South by the end of Friday or face a possible strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union members.

The workers are seeking higher pay, institution of cost-of-living adjustments and greater job security from the heavy-truck maker, UAW President Shawn Fain said during an online speech earlier this week.

"Workers' wages at Daimler have not kept up," he said on Tuesday. "The workers are going to come for their fair share. In the new UAW, we don't take concessions. We raise standards for everyone and we fight for what we deserve, and we're not afraid to strike to get it."



Have We Lost the Red Sea? | What Should be the US Strategy Against the Houthis?​

Apr 25, 2024

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the current situation in and around the Red Sea and should the US continue to protect ships in the region or shift and focus on US-flagged or allied vessels.


- USNI News Timeline: Conflict in the Red Sea https://news.usni.org/2024/02/05/usni...
- Iranian Ship Linked to Houthi Attacks Heads Home Amid Tensions https://gcaptain.com/iranian-ship-beh...
- Shipping hits out at scant coverage of hijacked crews https://splash247.com/shipping-hits-o...
- Shipping Industry Issues Plea to UN to Protect Maritime Security and Seafarers https://gcaptain.com/shipping-industr...

- ADDRESS OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL AT THE OPENING OF THE 111TH SESSION OF THE LEGAL COMMITTEE, 22 to 26 April 2024 https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/Se...

- Merchant Ships in War Zones | Chief MAKOi Seaman Vlog • Merchant Ships in War Zones | Chief M...

- MSCI Advisory 2024-006-Southern Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean, Somali Basin, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Persian Gulf-Threats to Commercial Vessels https://www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/202...

- IMF Portwatch https://portwatch.imf.org/
- EUNAVFOR MARITIME SECURITY THREAT - RED SEA https://on-shore.mschoa.org/latest-ne...
- No evidence more Chinese or Russian ships transiting Bab el Mandeb https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1148896/...
- Marine Traffic www.marinetraffic.com
Nothing to see, best to listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

We're in the 'Final Inning' of Dollar-Based System: Willem Middelkoop​

Apr 26, 2024 Commodity Culture

Willem Middelkoop believes the world is reaching a turning point when it comes to the global monetary system, and Western dollar supremacy is being challenged by the Eastern BRICS alliance. Willem notes that gold will be a massive beneficiary of this once-in-a-lifetime event, along with other commodities, such as silver, uranium, and more.


00:00 Introduction
01:29 Escalating Global Conflict
04:50 Final Inning of the Dollar System
07:47 S&P 500 and NASDAQ
11:32 Is Gold Undervalued Right Now?
13:51 Forecast For Silver
15:39 Institutional Investment in Precious Metals
17:58 Gold Mining Stocks
19:19 Silver Mining Stocks
20:56 The Fed's Next Move
23:29 European Economy
24:48 Uranium Outlook
27:01 Niger and Juristictional Risk

#usdollar #gold #monetaryreset

Morning Bid: Yen bounces from 160 per dollar in busy Fed-led week​

April 29, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

A week jam-packed with major market events kicked off with some wild action in Japan's yen during a public holiday there, with a withering drop in the currency to 34-year lows of 160 per dollar meeting predictable intervention speculation that triggered an equally eye-watering rebound.

With no official yen purchases yet confirmed, market chatter presumed there had been at least some shot across the bow as the currency's fall since Friday's anodyne Bank of Japan meeting threatened to go into tailspin. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to comment when asked if there had been any action.

More: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-04-29/

Thousands of hotel workers to rally in 18 cities ahead of contract negotiations​

NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - Unionized hotel workers demanding significant pay raises will rally on May Day in 18 U.S. and Canadian cities, as talks are beginning with operators Marriott International (MAR.O), opens new tab, Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT.N), opens new tab and Hyatt Hotels Corp (H.N), opens new tab.

Talks will cover about 40,000 workers who look to secure new contracts for the first time since the pandemic. Workers want to reverse pandemic-era staffing and service cuts, as well as duplicate the big pay hikes that organized workers across the nation have been winning in the recent years.

Demonstrators rallying for raises on May 1, the international workers' holiday, may face some pressure in markets still recovering from the pandemic, such as San Francisco and Hawaii, analysts say.

"There have been a series of staffing and service cuts that have led to both painful working conditions for the workers and reduced services for the guests," said Gwen Mills, international union president at Unite Here, which represents nearly 300,000 workers in hotels, casinos, food service, airports, and more across the U.S. and Canada.


The Commodities Feed: Speculators dump oil

The oil market has started the trading week under pressure with geopolitical risks continuing to ease. However, fundamentals remain constructive, which should limit the downside. Copper prices broke above US$10kt for the first time since April 2022





Laid-off: Former Tyson Foods chicken farmers face high costs switching to eggs​

CHICAGO, April 30 (Reuters) - Some U.S. farmers who once raised chickens for Tyson Foods to slaughter are shifting to sell eggs instead after the meatpacker closed six plants, a move that left local suppliers with limited options for work.

In one example, former Tyson suppliers in central Virginia formed a cooperative that will produce cage-free eggs for Indiana-based Dutch Country Organics on a dozen farms, after Tyson closed its nearby Glen Allen plant last year.

In Dexter, Missouri, the world's biggest egg company, Cal-Maine Foods (CALM.O), opens new tab, in March finalized a deal to buy another chicken meat plant Tyson shuttered. Cal-Maine recruited local farmers to produce eggs.

The switch to eggs, which carries high costs, reflects the tough choices former Tyson suppliers around the country must make following the company's 2023 decision to shut plants in an effort to return to profitability in its chicken business after misjudging consumer demand.



Weekly Commodity Market Update: Alternative U.S. export markets beyond China​

Apr 30, 2024

This week Will and Ben breakdown the shifting ag trade market and where U.S. opportunities exist.


Morning Bid: Mayday for bonds as 2024 Fed cut hopes dwindle​

May 1, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

May Day for Wall Street comes with the daunting prospect that the multiple interest rate cuts once expected from the Federal Reserve this year might now just be just one - if any.

Facing another $1.1 trillion in new Treasury debt sales over the coming two quarters, Tuesday's jarring news that U.S. employment cost growth accelerated during the first three months of the year was the latest blow to bond markets already struggling with a hawkish Fed.

With Wednesday's Fed decision unlikely to offer much encouragement on rates, futures markets have reduced 2024 easing expectations to just 27 basis points (bps). A quarter-point cut is now not fully priced until the Dec. 18 central bank meeting - well after November's election.

Two-year Treasury yields topped 5% again on Tuesday to hit their highest for the year - barely 32 bps below the current Fed policy rate - and 10-year yields crept back above 4.7%. And exchange-traded funds capturing longer-term Treasury bonds (TLT.O), opens new tab are clocking losses of more than 10% for the first four months of the year.



Scrap Metal Forecast 2024: Copper's Rise, Steel's New Tariff Impact , and EVs Affect on Cats​

📈 Check Scrap Prices: https://iScrapApp.com/ - Explore the latest developments in the scrap metal market in this week’s update. We dive into how the burgeoning AI boom and electrification efforts are poised to push copper prices potentially up to $5 per pound. Learn about the potential effects of increased tariffs on Chinese steel imports and how they might boost U.S. steel prices despite challenges from rising transportation costs. Additionally, we’ll discuss the steady yet uncertain market for catalytic converters and palladium, influenced by the shift to electric vehicles. Plus, discover how aluminum prices react to market pressures and the unexpected stability in nickel and stainless steel prices.

👉 Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/weekly-scr...


Gulf bourses mixed in early trade​

May 2 (Reuters) - Most stock markets in the Gulf were mixed in early trade on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve downplayed risks of an interest rate hike, while rising oil prices lifted the investor sentiment.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets- were up 0.95% with Brent trading at $84.22 a barrel by 0830 GMT.

In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark stock index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab rose 0.1%, supported by a 2.7% gain in Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB.AD), opens new tab and a 1.4% climb in Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD), opens new tab.



Morning Bid: Fed QT taper calms the horses, yen pops again​

May 2, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Anxious bond traders seem to have taken solace from the Federal Reserve's surprisingly sharp brake on its "quantitative tightening" process on Wednesday, while the yen capitalized on an easier dollar after what seemed like the second bout of Japanese intervention this week.

It may be thin gruel after a predictably hawkish Fed meeting that showed little inclination toward interest rate cuts any time soon, but the widely predicted Fed slowing of its balance sheet runoff was bigger than many had bargained for and may nod to its sensitivity to bond market angst and banking liquidity.

The U.S. central bank said it would scale back the pace of QT starting on June 1, allowing only $25 billion in Treasury bonds to run off each month versus the current $60 billion.

Helped additionally by Fed chair Jerome Powell batting away any idea that further rate rises were on the table again, Treasury yields have fallen back from the year's highs.

Futures markets nudged up the full-year Fed easing expectations to 35 basis points, though a first cut is still not fully priced until after November's election.



Drone Attack on Bulker Cyclades | Attacks on Ships in the Indian Ocean​

May 2, 2024 #supplychain #houthi #shipping #redsea #babelmandeb #gulfofaden #indianocean

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the Houthi attack on shipping in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, the withdrawal of American naval forces and the implications for global shipping.


- Houthis Release Video of Alleged UAV Attack on Bulk Carrier https://gcaptain.com/houthis-release-...
- Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019 https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/...
- Marine Traffic marinetraffic.com
- UKMTO: Ship Damaged in Missile Attack in Red Sea https://gcaptain.com/ukmto-ship-damag...
- Houthis Attack Commercial Ship in the Indian Ocean https://gcaptain.com/houthis-attack-c...
- Houthis Claim Multiple Attacks in Red Sea, Indian Ocean https://gcaptain.com/ship-reportedly-...

The U.S. Faces its "Most Dangerous Time" in Decades (Jamie Dimon Explains)​

May 2, 2024
Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan Chase) has just revealed his annual shareholder letter where he talks in detail about the U.S. economy, inflation, interest rates and The Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Why is he calling 2024 "the most danggerous time" the U.S. has seen in decades?


★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★

0:00 The Most Dangerous Time in Decades
1:16 The U.S. Money Problem
3:00 Inflation Isn't Going Away
5:15 Geopolitical Risk for America
10:40 Jamie's View on Artificial Intelligence

Morning Bid: Jobs test Fed relief, Apple buyback bump​

May 3, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The strength of the U.S. labor market will give Wall Street's interest rate relief a reality check on Friday, but Apple's (AAPL.O), opens new tab monster share buyback has buoyed the market in advance.

The world's second biggest company by market capitalisation wowed the gallery overnight with a whopping $110 billion stock buyback program - the biggest in the iPhone maker's history - and upped its dividend by 4% after a modest first quarter earnings beat.

The news lifted Apple shares 6% in out-of-hours trading and helped S&P500 futures extend Thursday's near-1% index rally ahead of today's open.

It's also strengthened the tailwind from this week's Federal Reserve meeting, which has calmed the Treasury market considerably by quashing creeping fears of another interest rate rise and surprising with a big taper of the Fed's balance sheet runoff.

The upshot is that futures markets have bumped up full-year Fed easing expectations to 40 basis points on Friday - 10 bps more than was priced just before the Fed meeting. And two-year Treasury yields have fallen to three-week lows below 4.90%.



Take Five: Surfin USA​

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters) - Central banks in Australia, Britain and Sweden will meet next week, as markets assess how much leeway the U.S. Federal Reserve has to cut rates this year.

Traders are on alert for Japanese currency intervention, while weighing up the effects of U.S. market turbulence. And the around-the-world election tour makes a pit-stop in Panama.

Here's what is in store for global markets in the week ahead from Rae Wee in Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Andy Bruce in Manchester, and Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.



Feeder cattle prices dropped $3 to $6 this week | Weekly Livestock Market Update​

May 3, 2024

On this episode of Weekly Livestock Market Update (WLMU), Brownfield Anchor/Reporter Meghan Grebner and University of Missouri Market Analyst Scott Brown talk feeder cattle prices dropping $3 to $6 this week.

Podcast here, nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab. It's 59 mins long, may want to listen in segments.

David Murrin: Western Leadership Blind & Driving World to War​

May 5, 2024

David Murrin discusses his system of forecasting global geopolitics and market trends, which takes into account the stages of empire and imperial decline. There is a rhythm and drumbeat to war which has a bigger cycle of 112 years. We're looking at a struggle between maritime (lateral) democratic governance and landpower (hierarchical) autocratic governance. Democracy is weaker than its ever been. America entered the fifth stage of decline with 9/11. Western leadership is blind and driving the world to war, we're over the brink. WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is now on fire, and the last piece of the puzzle is when China chooses to go to war. Decline (e.g. USA) means the fracturing of systems and less to go around. We will continue to see de-dollarization, high inflation, and higher oil and gold prices. Bitcoin, blockchains, and crypto are temporary safe havens that will eventually collapse. We shouldn't worry about Davos Man.


Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead​

May 05, 2024

Wall Street will get a slight amount of relief next week as both the economic calendar and the first quarter earnings season will lighten up somewhat. Market participants will be looking ahead to Monday's senior loan officer opinion survey from the Federal Reserve to assess credit conditions in the economy. Also in focus will be Friday's University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment data for May.



Morning Bid: Relief (mostly) everywhere​

May 6, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.

The relief across world markets as signs of a softening in the U.S. jobs markets strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts to start later this year remains palpable.

Not only did U.S. 10-year Treasury yields end Friday down 17 basis points , in their biggest weekly drop of the year, but the S&P 500 stock index had its best day in over two months.



China Dominates World Shipbuilding in 2024 | Market Share Increased To 58.1% of the World's Ships​

May 5, 2024 #supplychain #shipbuilding #china

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the annual report released by BRS Shipbrokers and the status of commercial Shipbuilding in 2024


00:00 Introduction and Background on Shipbuilding in 2024
04:11 World Orderbook in 2024
07:57 What types of ships are being built?
10:59 How Much Does a New Ship Cost?
13:37 China
17:09 Korea
20:30 Japan
22:36 Europe
24:22 Rest of the World
25:53 Conclusion

- BRS Shipbrokers Annual Reports https://brsshipbrokers.com/publications
- Hidden Harbors: China’s State-backed Shipping Industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/hidden-...
- China’s subsidies for shipbuilding https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast...
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