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Post-COVID, China is back in Africa and doubling down on minerals​

  • Chinese overseas investment, construction bouncing back
  • Africa major focus of post-pandemic engagement
  • Activities weighted towards minerals extraction
  • Trade up, but Africa's deficit with China ballooning
JOHANNESBURG/NAIROBI, May 28 (Reuters) - China's flagship economic cooperation program is bouncing back after a lull during the global pandemic, with Africa a primary focus, according to a Reuters analysis of lending, investment and trade data.
Chinese leaders have been citing the billions of dollars committed to new construction projects and record two-way trade as evidence of their commitment to assist with the continent's modernization and foster "win-win" cooperation.



Morning Bid: Post-break Wall Street stays pumped up​

May 28, 2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street looks set for a sleepy but positive start to a shortened week after Monday's Memorial Day break, with the consumer back in focus in May updates later today.

S&P500 futures were higher again ahead of Tuesday's open after the cash index (.SPX), opens new tab eked out its fifth straight weekly gain last week - the longest such streak since early February.

U.S. consumer confidence is expected to have cooled a touch this month in the Conference Board's monthly survey due later today, although the big release of the week is clearly Friday's PCE inflation gauge.

Even though Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have receded to little more than one cut over the remainder of the year, broader financial conditions captured by the Chicago Fed index are at their easiest since November 2021 - four months before the Fed began its tightening campaign.



World shares hold firm, traders await inflation prints​

LONDON/SYDNEY, May 28 (Reuters) - World shares held near all-time highs on Tuesday and U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower as investors awaited inflation data from both sides of the Atlantic due later in the week.

Traders were keeping an eye on the shift to a shorter settlement in U.S. trading but there were few major moves in advance to the U.S. market open.

Investors in U.S. equities, and other securities, must settle their transactions one business day after the trade instead of two from Tuesday.

Most asset classes, outside commodities, have been trading in fairly narrow ranges in recent weeks, with major share benchmarks near record-highs, European bond yields inching higher and the dollar gradually trending weaker against major peers.

U.S. PCE inflation and CPI inflation data from major euro zone economies this week are the main things that could jolt markets out of their current thinking by affecting expectations of when major central banks will start cutting rates. Inflation data in the euro zone is released from Wednesday, followed by the PCE on Friday.



Ford, GM, Stellantis CAN'T SELL CARS! Lots Are PILING UP!​

May 27, 2024 #realestate #housingmarket #homeprices

Right now, many of the dealers of the major auto makers like Ford GM, and Stellantis are sitting on over three months of inventory for their brand new on sold cars, which is way above the industry average. And these unsold new cars have a ripple effect on the economy, and also hurt the lower end used car sales as well.


Articles Mentioned in the Video

Russian wheat pressured by drought and freeze | Weekly Commodity Market Update​

May 28, 2024

On this Weekly Commodity Market Update, Will and Ben break down the impact of Russia's wheat production struggles and opportunities for U.S. exports.



Morning Bid: Fed in a bind as consumers stay upbeat​

May 29, 2024 6:19 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

World markets wobbled on Tuesday, with benchmark bond yields and volatility gauges jumping to their highest in almost four weeks, as more evidence of the stoic U.S. consumer alongside runaway tech stocks leaves the Federal Reserve with a conundrum.

Also agitated by Tuesday's whopping $297 billion sale of Treasury notes and bills and a tepid investor response, 10-year benchmark yields hit their highest level since May 3. The VIX (.VIX), opens new tab also jumped to near four week highs and the dollar (.DXY), opens new tab firmed, especially on the yuan and euro .

The rates market angst began with the latest readout on resilient U.S. households however. Confounding expectations of a slowdown this month, the Conference Board's monthly survey showed consumer confidence pushed higher again in May.

Even though the survey revealed some anxiety about possible recession ahead, the surprising optimism centered on two main things. The first is plentiful jobs, as the unemployment rate has now stayed below 4% for 26 consecutive months, and rising stock markets.



Commodities have been on a tear — and the next trade is in the stock market, say these strategists.​

The setup is looking shaky for Wednesday, with stock futures falling as bond yields rise. Blame that on lousy auctions and hawkish comments from a non-voting Fed member, among other things.

Commodities this year have been the big beneficiaries of the surprisingly strong inflation. According to Societe Generale, 79% of the industrial metals it tracks are higher this year.

But it says the long copper, short oil trade has played out.

“As risks gather on the long copper leg of the trade with futures prices now overstretched by investor positionings, we think it is the right moment to close the trade and take profit,” say strategists led by Manish Kabra.

Instead, they say, go long miners vs. energy stocks.

“While copper is the poster child of the energy transition on secular trends, cyclically our demand driver indicators, such as SG Global Cycle and SG Asian Exports, continue to show improvement, suggesting strong returns ahead for being overweight miners and underweight energy. The current rise in metal prices suggests an inflection in EPS momentum ahead for the mining sector,” they say.


A little bit of this, little bit of that in this one. Take it fwiw and dyodd. Nothing to see so you can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

CBDC is '100% Coming' and You Will Accept it or Be Outcast: EB Tucker​

May 29, 2024 Commodity Culture

A Central Bank Digital Currency is on the way, you will take it and you will like it, or else you can kiss your connection with society goodbye, according to E.B. Tucker. E.B. discusses why we need to live for today instead of worrying about this inevitable future, how gold and silver play a role in preserving wealth, why he thinks mining stocks aren't necessarily a good investment, and much more.


00:00 Introduction
01:22 Enjoy Freedom While You Still Can
09:48 Looming CBDC Rollout
15:35 Can We Escape CBDCs?
19:41 How Much Gold Makes Sense?
25:31 Is it Worth Owning Silver?
29:03 I'm Negative on Mining Stocks
39:20 As a Shareholder, You Should Vote
42:15 Outlook for Energy Sector
47:00 Bullish or Bearish on Uranium?


Scrap Market Update: Copper & Steel Volatility Post-Memorial Day​

📈 Check Scrap Prices: https://iScrapApp.com/ - We hope everyone had a meaningful Memorial Day weekend. In this week's scrap metal market update, we delve into the recent fluctuations in copper prices, the steady growth in aluminum, and the significant rise in brass prices. We'll also discuss the continued decline in steel prices and the volatile nature of catalytic converter prices driven by platinum and gold. Additionally, we cover the stability in carbide prices and the potential for growth in nickel-related rare earth metals. Stay informed and learn how to navigate these changes in the scrap market for strategic buying and selling decisions.

👉 Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/weekly-scr...


Morning Bid: Agitated markets wary of June heat​

May 30, 2024 6:11 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

This week's bout of bond market anxiety eased a touch on Thursday, but investors wary of heavy sovereign debt sales and election uncertainty are bracing for a jumpy June.

And the dollar (.DXY), opens new tab is lapping it all up.

At the root of the week's angst has been more evidence of still-brisk U.S. economic growth and sticky worldwide inflation that questions the degree of interest rate cuts ahead that have been long-assumed by markets. Jobless updates and a GDP revision top today's diary.



Why Copper Demand Is Skyrocketing​

May 30, 2024 #CNBC

Demand for copper is surging. The red metal, considered a barometer for economic health, is a vital component for the construction and defense industries as well as a key ingredient in electric cars, wind turbines and the power grid. Offshore wind, for example, requires about “three times as much copper as does coal-fired power generation in terms of tons per gigawatt of capacity.” But mining companies are having a hard time keeping up. Globally, existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030. To keep up with demand the industry is faced with a number of obstacles. including the shortage of mining workers, navigating regulatory hurdles as well as pushback from local stakeholders. So what impact will the looming global copper shortage have on the transition to renewable energy sources? To look at the challenges facing copper producers, CNBC got a behind the scenes look at Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mining operation outside of Salt Lake City where about 200,000 metric tons of copper are produced annually.


0:00-2:22 Introduction
2:23-5:15 Chapter 1 Copper demand
5:16-7:12 Chapter 2 Companies
7:13-10:45 Chapter 3 Mining in the U.S.

Red Sea Chaos: Freight Rates Soar As Port Congestions Worsen!​

May 30, 2024 #supplychain #containerships #houthi

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the impact of Red Sea diversions on global shipping and the spike in freight rates.


- Marine Traffic marinetraffic.com
- Megamax fleet now forms half of global boxship fleet https://container-news.com/megamax-fl...
- Alphaliner TOP 100 / 30 May 2024 https://alphaliner.axsmarine.com/Publ...
- Houthis Claim Attacks on Six Ships in Red, Arabian, and Mediterranean Seas https://gcaptain.com/houthis-claim-at...
- Red Sea rerouting causing Asian port congestion https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/con...
- War of attrition could prolong Cape diversions https://container-news.com/war-of-att...
- Sea-Intelligence reports average minimum transit time up 39% on Asia-Med routes https://container-news.com/sea-intell...
- Singapore congestion reaches 2 million TEUs https://container-news.com/singapore-...
- Indian shippers and retailers suffer in a wave of supply chain disruption https://theloadstar.com/indian-manufa...
- Higher consumption in China, US contributed to rate spike https://container-news.com/higher-con...
- Getting containers in the right place at the right time is now 'impossible' https://theloadstar.com/getting-conta...
- Shipper fury as spot rates soar - and box lines ignore contracts https://theloadstar.com/shipper-fury-...
- Drewry's World Container Index - 30 May https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain...
- Booming May rates mask the looming capacity bomb https://container-news.com/booming-ma...
- Ellerman City Liner relaunches China-UK service for peak season https://theloadstar.com/ellerman-city...
- Disruptions continue to drive tanker demand https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1149301/...
- Five-year-old Suezmax tankers worth more than a newbuilding https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tan...
- Red Sea Disruptions Are Driving Up Carbon Emissions https://www.marinelink.com/news/red-s...


May 30, 2024 #realestate #housingmarket #homeprices

When you have people that have ran major companies, like Home Depot for decades issuing warnings about the economy you know things are not going nearly as well as we're being told. And people in this position noise before most other people do so it would be wise to heed their warnings.


Articles Mentioned in the Video

- https://apple.news/AeM8iirLzS4CrO02Q4...
- https://apple.news/Ap1Ur6b27TqWkuQRds...
- https://apple.news/A2sLXqKWjSU647_6xf...
- https://apple.news/ARpAc9xPLRy6O-wgQo...
Fearnleys Week 22

Capital Link Shipping Week 22



AMERICAS PCE test for nervy markets​

May 31, 2024 6:05 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Wall Street looks set to end the shortened week slightly punch drunk, with Friday's May inflation update set to be a decider after a slew of conflicting economic data signals and the latest election twist.

The Federal Reserve's favored PCE inflation gauge is due out early on Friday. Consensus forecasts for a 0.3% monthly increase in the core measure and annual rate stuck at 2.8% are still likely too high for Fed officials to give a green light on easing interest rates.


Podcast here, nothing to see, can listen in one tab, play around the forum in a different tab.

Joakim Hannisdahl | Shipping Investing 2024, And Gersemi Asset Management | Live From Marine Money​

May 31, 2024 #gersemi #shipping #investing

Live from Marine Money. Vonheim podcast with Joakim Hannisdahl, investor and founder of hedge fund Gersemi Asset Management.


Cattle prices slip in the holiday shortened week | Weekly Livestock Market Update​

Jun 1, 2024

In this episode of Weekly Livestock Market Update, Brownfield Anchor/Reporter Meghan Grebner and University of Missouri Market Analyst Scott Brown talk Quarterly Trade Data, the Restaurant Performance Index, and a down week for cattle.


Customs and Border Protection Crackdowns on ECommerce De minimis Shipments from China to the US​

Jun 1, 2024 #supplychain #containerships #ecommerce

In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the Customs and Border Protection crackdown on E-commerce De minimus (less than $800 in value) shipments to the US from China.


- Customs brokers under scrutiny as US CBP confirms ecommerce crackdown https://theloadstar.com/customs-broke...
- CBP E-Commerce Strategy https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/fil...
- Loadstar ECommerce Series https://theloadstar.com/category/e-co...
- CBP E-Commerce https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-impor...
Asian Markets

Morning Bid: PMI-fest kicks off new month, spotlight on China​

June 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asia kicks off the new trading month for global markets on Monday, with manufacturing PMI data from the continent's biggest economies setting the local tone and investors still banking on U.S. and other interest rates coming down soon.

Purchasing managers index figures will show how factory activity in China, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea and India fared last month, and Indonesia's latest inflation figures will also be released.

The most important Asian PMI for markets will be China's unofficial Caixin number, which is expected to inch up to 51.5 from 51.4.

That would be welcome relief following the disappointing official PMI figures on Friday that showed factory activity contracting again, reviving doubts about the strength of China's economic recovery.

Economists at Barclays reckon growth in the second quarter will be virtually zero, and Citi's economic surprises index for China is negative for the first time in nearly four months.



Morning Bid: Wall St eyes election-strewn June, jobs week​

June 3, 2024 6:03 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

June kicks off with a series of big election results around the world - with big landslides unfolding for favoured candidates in Mexico and India - while Wall Street has perked up in a key week for the U.S. labour market.

The peso was slightly unnerved by the sheer scale of Claudia Sheinbaum's win in Mexico's presidential election, slipping to a five-week low ahead of Monday's open.

Mentored by popular outgoing leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, former mayor of Mexico City Sheinbaum took an historic near 60% of the vote and the ruling coalition was on track for a possible two-thirds super majority in both houses of Congress - allow it to pass constitutional reforms without opposition.

On the other side of the world, Indian shares (.NSEI), opens new tab set record highs, the rupee gained and bond yields dropped as exit polls indicated a decisive mandate and a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The polls showed Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party set to increase its 303 seats in the 543-member lower house and likely get a two-thirds majority - also enough to initiate amendments to the constitution.



China food security law comes into force, aims for absolute self-sufficiency​

BEIJING, June 1 (Reuters) - China's first food security law aimed at achieving "absolute self-sufficiency" in staple grains came into effect on Saturday, reinforcing efforts by the world's biggest agriculture importer to lower its reliance on overseas purchases.

The law provides a legal framework for existing guidance by the Communist Party for local governments and the agricultural industry to raise food production, although it did not give details on how the law will be implemented.

It includes protection of farmland from being converted to other uses, protecting germplasm resources and preventing wastage.

Passed just six months after its first reading, the rush to adopt the food security law reflects China's urgency to resolve issues that have curbed production, such as a lack of arable land and water resources, labour shortages and a lack of agriculture technology.


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